Initial ensemble generation and validation for ocean data assimilation using HYCOM in the Pacific

A method to initialize an ensemble, introduced by Evensen (Physica, D 77:108–129, 1994a; J Geophys Res 99(C5):10143–10162, 1994b; Ocean Dynamics 53:343–367, 2003), was applied to the Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) for the Pacific Ocean. Taking advantage of the hybrid coordinates, an initial ensemble is created by first perturbing the layer interfaces and then running the model for a spin-up period of 1 month forced by randomly perturbed atmospheric forcing fields. In addition to the perturbations of layer interfaces, we implemented perturbations of the mixed layer temperatures. In this paper, we investigate the quality of the initial ensemble generated by this scheme and the influence of the horizontal decorrelation scale and vertical correlation on the statistics of the resulting ensemble. We performed six ensemble generation experiments with different combinations of horizontal decorrelation scales and with/without perturbations in the mixed layer. The resulting six sets of initial ensembles are then analyzed in terms of sustainability of the ensemble spread and realism of the correlation patterns. The ensemble spreads are validated against the difference between model and observations after 20 years of free run. The correlation patterns of six sets of ensemble are compared to each other. This study shows that the ensemble generation scheme can effectively generate an initial ensemble whose spread is consistent with the observed errors. The correlation pattern of the ensemble also exhibits realistic features. The addition of mixed layer perturbations improves both the spread and correlation. Some limitations of the ensemble generation scheme are also discussed. We found that the vertical shift of isopycnal coordinates provokes unrealistically large deviations in shallow layers near the islands of the West Pacific. A simple correction circumvents the problem.

An experimental study on the rocking response of bridge piers with spread footing foundations

Some spread footing foundations from real retrofitting practices in Taiwan were extended to be uneconomically large due to the restriction of foundation uplift regulated in the design code. Although rocking mode of spread footings induced from foundation uplift is not favorable in current design code, recent studies have shown that the rocking of a spread footing may have a beneficial effect on the dynamic performance of piers by reducing the earthquake forces that can be transmitted to the pier base. This implies that the plastic deformation that occurs at the pier's plastic zone can be decreased and as a result the ductility demand of piers can possibly be reduced. In order to gain a better understanding of the structural behavior related to rocking and to clarify that if the widening and strengthening of the foundations to limit the rocking mechanism of spread footing is necessary for the retrofitting work, a series of preliminary rocking experiments were performed. A total of three circular reinforced concrete columns with spread footing foundations were tested. Using pseudo‐dynamic tests and a cyclic loading test, these columns were subjected to different levels of earthquake accelerations, including a near field ground motion. The results of the tests and the rocking behavior of the footings are discussed in this paper. From the benchmark test, the difference between the response behavior of a rocking base and a fixed base foundation was highlighted. By comparing the experimental responses of the retrofitted column with the responses of the original one, the effect of the rocking mechanism on the ductility demand and strength demand of the columns was also identified. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

克孜尔水库跨断层形变变化速率的非均匀性特征分析

对克孜尔水库跨断层垂直形变近40年的资料和水平形变近32年的资料进行了分析。研究发现,①跨断层形变的变化速率具有明显的不均匀性,根据数据序列走势,变化速率的不同可分为6个阶段;②水库施工对跨断层形变有一定的影响,水库蓄水对跨断层形变有显著的影响;③水库蓄水达到正常库容量后的新平衡状态下,跨断层形变速率变化几乎是无干扰背景下变化速率的2倍;④区域应力场的增强对跨断层形变趋势性转折有显著性影响。     

Nonlinear wave Packets of Equatorial Kelvin Waves

The weakly nonlinear dynamics of packets of equatorial Kelvin waves is studied using singular perturbation theory applied to the shallow water wave equations. Within the limits of the perturbation theory, which is formally restricted to weak mean shear and weak nonlinearity, we derive a Nonlinear Schroedinger equation to describe the envelope of the wave packet. We find that nonlinearity has a defocusing effect so that coherent wave packets must owe their existence entirely to the generation mechanism rather than to nonlinear focusing of a broad initial disturbance.     

Non-trough foF2 enhancements at near-equatorial dip latitudes

Fine resolution series from three equatorial ionosondes of the IEEY network in West Africa have revealed small-scale daytime peak F2 structures, superposed on the slowly varying minimum or –trough distribution in the ±5° magnetic latitude zone. We report this new morphology, concentrating on foF2 enhancements of two types: near-equatorial crests (which travel either northwards or southwards) and magnetic field-aligned domes, whose onsets last only tens of minutes. Both types are observed to start at mid-morning or early afternoon hours. We relate their occurrence with the available variations of Vz = E × B upward drift which feeds the equatorial plasma fountain. We suggest the foF2 enhancements to be triggered by brief slow-downs of the Vz velocity near F2 peak altitude in our West African sector. Their short latitude extent differentiates them from the larger-scale tropical crest system. Further analysis of these features should lead to weather-like models of the low latitude ionosphere variations, where unstable local coupling between processes seems to be the trigger.     

The equatorial electrojet

The typical quiet day variations of the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) current intensity with time of the day, season, sunspot number, and geomagnetic latitude are presented in terms of the corresponding variations of H which is the deviation of the horizontal component (H) of the geomagnetic field from its steady nighttime level. The observed height structure of the current density in the EEJ as measured in rocket flights is presented, along with the theoretically computed structure. Theoretical model results on the polarization electric fields and east-west currents as generated by the local interactions of height-varying winds in the EEJ show large height gradients and reversals for both currents and electric fields; experimental evidence for the reality of such height structures is also shown. The characteristics of the counter-electrojet events are presented and the possible causative mechanisms are discussed critically.Some typical experimental results are presented on the electric field changes in the EEJ which result from its sensitive response to electrodynamic disturbances in the magnetosphere and the auroral-polar latitude ionosphere during geomagnetic substorms and storms; and their implications are discussed. Possibilities for utilizing the EEJ as a very useful medium for important scientific studies on the larger space domain of ionosphere-magnetosphere system, on plasma waves, and on the earth's conductivity are emphasized.     

南海夏季风爆发的气候特征

利用ＴＯＧＡ－ＣＯＡＲＥ强化期“实验３”号科学考究船所取得的表面气象的探空资料,对考察期间的热通量进行详尽的分析和计算,特别是对发生在ＩＯＰ期间的两次西风爆发过程中西太平洋热带海域热通量的特征进行了重点分析,并讨论了它们与大尺度环流及其中高纬度环流的关系。     

基本流场切变对赤道长Rossby波的影响

文中应用赤道β平面近似 ,建立一个简单的斜压大气半地转模式 ,在热力学方程中引入表征基本位温场 (θ)经向分布特征的无量纲参数 σ,对线性化的扰动方程进行了频率分析 ,研究基本位温场经向非均匀分布以及基本气流垂直切变对赤道纬向超长尺度 Rossby波动的影响 ,并指出仅考虑基本气流垂直切变或者基本位温场变化的作用是不合适的。定性分析结果表明 :基本位温场经向温差必然有基本气流垂直切变与其相匹配 ,而基本气流垂直切变将导致赤道长 Rossby波动不稳定并影响其纬向传播速度     

前期印度洋海温异常对夏季高原“湿池”水汽含量的影响及其可能原因

利用Hadley中心提供的逐月海温资料、ERA-Interim再分析资料以及NOAA（National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration）的逐月向外长波辐射（OLR）资料探讨了1979~2011年夏季青藏高原“湿池”的水汽含量与前期印度洋海温异常的关系,并对可能的原因进行了分析。结果表明,夏季青藏高原水汽（去趋势）EOF第二模态与前期印度洋海温存在密切的正相关,前期3~4月关键区（5°S~20°N,45°E~75°E）的海温异常可以作为夏季高原水汽的预测信号。在暖水年,赤道附近显著的东风异常对夏季高原水汽输送起到了至关重要的作用。500 hPa上副热带高压显著增强并西移,600 hPa上赤道附近为显著的异常东风,将水汽从西太平洋、南海、孟加拉湾向西输送到印度半岛,并在异常反气旋环流西侧的南风作用下,将水汽带向青藏高原。高层风场上,西太平洋地区辐合,青藏高原上空辐散。以上环流形势表明暖水年夏季青藏高原水汽偏多;冷水年则相反。就影响机制而言,前期春季印度洋海温显著偏暖,引起其上空异常的对流上升运动,驱动异常沃克环流从春到夏显著维持,副热带高压的季节性北跳和异常增强西移,有利于赤道东风异常的增强和西移,并经过水汽输送通道将水汽带向青藏高原上空。     

A comparison study of the methods of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations and singular vectors in ensemble prediction

The authors apply the technique of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) as a means of providing initial perturbations for ensemble forecasting by using a barotropic quasi-geostrophic (QG) model in a perfect-model scenario. Ensemble forecasts for the medium range (14 days) are made from the initial states perturbed by CNOPs and singular vectors (SVs). 13 different cases have been chosen when analysis error is a kind of fast growing error. Our experiments show that the introduction of CNOP provides better forecast skill than the SV method. Moreover, the spread-skill relationship reveals that the ensemble samples in which the first SV is replaced by CNOP appear superior to those obtained by SVs from day 6 to day 14. Rank diagrams are adopted to compare the new method with the SV approach. The results illustrate that the introduction of CNOP has higher reliability for medium-range ensemble forecasts.