模糊ISODATA聚类分析用于大气环境质量评价

本文应用一种基于模糊划分的聚类方法,即模糊ISODATA方法,进行大气环境质量评价。结果表明该方法简单、快速,尤其在待评价的监测点较多时效果甚佳。     

三峡工程对生态与环境影响综合评价体系

本文是继三峡工程对生态与环境影响的综合评价之后,针对三峡工程兴建与否和何时兴建等目标的延续课题。继承前期研究综合评价的基本框架。分为评价对象系统;时间动态系统;影响识别系统。包括3个次系统,23个子系统、100个评价因子的巨型系统工程。假设不同的变化条件,评价因子、因素和系统,在不同时间内的生态环境状况与理想状态的位差和生态的可能变化趋势,作出预警。     

Can a costly reporting system make environmental enforcement more efficient?

A formal mathematical model is developed to ascertain the effectiveness of a reporting system for improving the enforcement of environmental laws and regulations when reports are costly. To model realistic enforcement problems arising over environmental issues such as compliance to water and air quality standards, a formal enforcement model is constructed using concepts from probability and statistics, non-cooperative game theory, and economics. In order to demonstrate clearly the benefits gained when an environmental agency takes advantage of a reporting system, a formal enforcement model with a costly reporting system is rigorously compared to one with no reporting system. The calculation and comparison of Nash equilibria for a range of values of model parameters indicates under what conditions a reporting system can be truly effective. Overall, it is found that a reporting system, such as whistle-blowing, can be helpful for reducing violations of environmental standards, thereby maintaining better environmental quality.     

On maximum likelihood estimation of parameters in incorrectly specified models of covariance for spatial data

The analysis of, and from, models of spatial data usually proceeds under the assumption, often implicit, that the correct model has been specified. However, any model identification procedures based on sample data are subject to error, and consequences of such errors then permeate subsequent analysis. Thus, an attempt to quantify some of these consequences is of interest. A standard framework for analysis is extended here, by introduction of information theory, to permit the study of effects of model misspecification on maximum likelihood estimators of parameters of model covariance. Asymptotically valid theoretical results are presented, and the relevance of these results to samples of finite sizes met in practice is assessed in a series of simulation experiments. The effect of model misspecification, and use of estimators of parameters of misspecified covariance models, on the practical problem of prediction at a previously unsampled location is considered briefly, and further areas for possible investigation are outlined.     

Environmental policies and marine engines—effects on the development and adoption of innovations

This study indicates that environmental policy interventions significantly influence the innovation processes for reducing the emissions of marine engine technology. Several different types of interventions have been important and the effect is not directly proportional to the strength or spatial coverage of the intervention. Despite its relative weakness, the MARPOL rule on NO_x emissions has contributed to technology development. We also show that the rise of environmental issues in other fields has had a marked effect on the development of the marine sector and that relatively local interventions can influence innovation even in an international sector like marine transport.     

柴达木盆地盐湖区环境污染消纳能力分析

近年来,随着柴达木盆地盐湖资源开发的规模和强度不断增加,环境负载也逐步加大。根据柴达木盆地自然环境特征,分析了盐湖区大气、土壤、水环境污染情况及影响污染物消纳能力的主要因素。采用大气自净能力指数(ASI)、水环境自净能力等级(M)和土壤自然消减能力(NAC)等指标,从大气、土壤、水环境等方面半定量和定量评价了柴达木盆地盐湖区环境污染消纳能力。结果表明柴达木盆地盐湖区内水环境自净能力的等级系数为1.34,水环境自净能力较弱;平均大气自净能力指数是3.85 t/(d·km²),大气环境自净能力一般;土壤自然消减能力平均值为0.639,土壤自净能力中等。总体来看,降水少、风尘大等因素导致柴达木盆地自然消纳能力较低,盐湖开发过程中必须高度重视生态环境保护。     

Relationship between watershed scale macroinvertebrate community and environmental factors in the Japanese archipelago

The conservation and restoration of freshwater ecosystems require the understanding of potential biota of the target area. My ultimate study goal was to clarify the potential fauna of the watershed unit of the Japanese archipelago, a hotspot of biodiversity. Here, I attempted to classify the macroinvertebrate community of the major rivers within the Japanese archipelago, thereby elucidating its biogeography, and to investigate the extent to which environmental factors drive the watershed’s macroinvertebrate community. I classified the rivers located in the northern region of the Japanese archipelago geographically, but did not group the geographically adjacent rivers in the western region together. Differences in watershed size, geological history (including river conflict), and paleo-drainage systems seem to affect the classification results. Moreover, Indicator Species Analysis results suggest that river groups in the northern part of the Japanese archipelago had highly endemic species, whereas, the river groups in the western part of the Japanese archipelago had few highly endemic species. The result of the canonical correspondence analysis indicated that topographic factors, the flow regime, geology, water quality, and anthropogenic factors were significantly correlated with macroinvertebrate classification and distribution. The results of the decision tree model indicated that water temperature and maximum specific discharge were explanatory factors in the classification of the macroinvertebrate community. Further, my results also suggest that environmental factors at a smaller scale than that of the watershed were needed to explain further subdivisions in classification of the macroinvertebrate community.     

基于Sugeno型模糊推理的震中烈度预测模型

以Sugeno型模糊推理系统为基础,建立了以震级和震源深度为输入,以震中烈度为输出的震中烈度预测模型,并以四川地区震例数据为例,对模型构建的关键环节进行了详细的说明.通过与参考文献中的拟合模型进行预测数据对比分析,可得本文的推理预测模型精度更高,误差更小,且有更强的扩展性.     

Dimensions of environmental justice in anti-gold mining movements in Latin America

The present article examines two Latin American gold mining conflicts, one in the city of Esquel (Patagonia in Argentina) and the other in Pascua–Lama (Chilean border with Argentina). We identify the emergence of three dimensions of environmental justice (distribution, recognition, participation) in the anti-mining movements of these two cases. The study finds that some dimensions of justice appear first (participation and recognition), while distribution emerges later, as movements jump scales engaging with national and international networks that provide a systemic perspective of the conflicts. The findings are consistent with other studies that refer to environmental justice as multi-scalar and context related. We also point to the relevance of studying decision-making procedures and jumping scales to understand how environmental justice claims are framed in resource extraction conflicts.     

What is social sustainability? A clarification of concepts

Though the concept of sustainable development originally included a clear social mandate, for two decades this human dimension has been neglected amidst abbreviated references to sustainability that have focused on bio-physical environmental issues, or been subsumed within a discourse that conflated ‘development’ and ‘economic growth’. The widespread failure of this approach to generate meaningful change has led to renewed interest in the concept of ‘social sustainability’ and aspects thereof. A review of the literature suggests, however, that it is a concept in chaos, and we argue that this severely compromises its importance and utility. The purpose of this paper is to examine this diverse literature so as to clarify what might be meant by the term social sustainability and highlight different ways in which it contributes to sustainable development more generally. We present a threefold schema comprising: (a) ‘development sustainability’ addressing basic needs, the creation of social capital, justice and so on; (b) ‘bridge sustainability’ concerning changes in behaviour so as to achieve bio-physical environmental goals and; (c) ‘maintenance sustainability’ referring to the preservation - or what can be sustained - of socio-cultural characteristics in the face of change, and the ways in which people actively embrace or resist those changes. We use this tripartite of social sustainabilities to explore ways in which contradictions and complements between them impede or promote sustainable development, and draw upon housing in urban areas as a means of explicating these ideas.