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71.
Modelling complex systems of heterogeneous agents to better design sustainability transitions policy
This article proposes a fundamental methodological shift in the modelling of policy interventions for sustainability transitions in order to account for complexity (e.g. self-reinforcing mechanisms, such as technology lock-ins, arising from multi-agent interactions) and agent heterogeneity (e.g. differences in consumer and investment behaviour arising from income stratification). We first characterise the uncertainty faced by climate policy-makers and its implications for investment decision-makers. We then identify five shortcomings in the equilibrium and optimisation-based approaches most frequently used to inform sustainability policy: (i) their normative, optimisation-based nature, (ii) their unrealistic reliance on the full-rationality of agents, (iii) their inability to account for mutual influences among agents (multi-agent interactions) and capture related self-reinforcing (positive feedback) processes, (iv) their inability to represent multiple solutions and path-dependency, and (v) their inability to properly account for agent heterogeneity. The aim of this article is to introduce an alternative modelling approach based on complexity dynamics and agent heterogeneity, and explore its use in four key areas of sustainability policy, namely (1) technology adoption and diffusion, (2) macroeconomic impacts of low-carbon policies, (3) interactions between the socio-economic system and the natural environment, and (4) the anticipation of policy outcomes. The practical relevance of the proposed methodology is subsequently discussed by reference to four specific applications relating to each of the above areas: the diffusion of transport technology, the impact of low-carbon investment on income and employment, the management of cascading uncertainties, and the cross-sectoral impact of biofuels policies. In conclusion, the article calls for a fundamental methodological shift aligning the modelling of the socio-economic system with that of the climatic system, for a combined and realistic understanding of the impact of sustainability policies. 相似文献
72.
Major and trace elements, noble gases, and stable (δD, δ18O) and cosmogenic (3H, 14C) isotopes were measured from geothermal fluids in two adjacent geothermal areas in NW-Mexico, Las Tres Vírgenes (LTV) and Cerro Prieto (CP). The goal is to trace the origin of reservoir fluids and to place paleoclimate and structural-volcanic constraints in the region. Measured 3He/4He (R) ratios normalized to the atmospheric value (Ra = 1.386 × 10−6) vary between 2.73 and 4.77 and are compatible with mixing between a mantle component varying between 42 and 77% of mantle helium and a crustal, radiogenic He component with contributions varying between 23% and 58%. Apparent U–Th/4He ages for CP fluids (0.7–7 Ma) suggest the presence of a sustained 4He flux from a granitic basement or from mixing with connate brines, deposited during the Colorado River delta formation (1.5–3 Ma). Radiogenic in situ 4He production age modeling at LTV, combined with the presence of radiogenic carbon (1.89 ± 0.11 pmC – 35.61 ± 0.28 pmC) and the absence of tritium strongly suggest the Quaternary infiltration of meteoric water into the LTV geothermal reservoir, ranging between 4 and 31 ka BP. The present geochemical heterogeneity of LTV fluids can be reconstructed by mixing Late Pleistocene – Early Holocene meteoric water (58–75%) with a fossil seawater component (25–42%), as evidenced by Br/Cl and stable isotope trends. CP geothermal water is composed of infiltrated Colorado River water with a minor impact by halite dissolution, whereas a vapor-dominated sample is composed of Colorado River water and vapor from deeper levels. δD values for the LTV meteoric end-member, which are 20‰–44‰ depleted with respect to present-day precipitation, as well as calculated annual paleotemperatures 6.9–13.6 °C lower than present average temperatures in Baja California point to the presence of humid and cooler climatic conditions in the Baja California peninsula during the final stage of the Last Glacial Pluvial period. Quaternary recharge of the LTV geothermal reservoir is related to elevated precipitation rates during cooler-humid climate intervals in the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene. The probable replacement of connate water or pore fluids by infiltrating surface water might have been triggered by enhanced fracture and fault permeability through contemporaneous tectonic–volcanic activity in the Las Tres Vírgenes region. Fast hydrothermal alteration processes caused a secondary, positive δ18O-shift from 4‰ to 6‰ for LTV and from 2‰ to 4‰ for CP geothermal fluids since the Late Glacial infiltration. 相似文献
73.
Western Liao River area is one of the most important birthplaces of agricultural civilization in northern China. With recent works like relics survey, site excavation and environmental archaeology going further, the time sequence, cultural content and subsistence strategy history of this area are getting explicit. Questions like ancient exploiting history of natural resources, climate background and cultural impact of subsistence strategy have been paid great attention. Traditional environmental archaeology methods like plant and animal remains analysis are mostly utilized to conduct in-site investigation, current studies rarely adopt quantitative methods to examine the sites’ macro temporal-spatial distribution and aggregation pattern. Based on abundant digitized relic survey data, GIS methods like kernel density analysis are utilized to indicate the temporal-spatial distribution and aggregation pattern of prehistoric cultures in Western Liao River area. The latitudinal, longitudinal and altitudinal migrations of site distributional core are indicated by 3D perspective shift and elevation statistics. By referencing existing studies on subsistence strategy and paleoclimate history, results of spatial analysis are used to reveal the correlation among sites’ temporal-spatial distribution, subsistence strategy adopted and climate variation. This also contributes to our understanding and utilization of massive locational information of prehistoric sites in ancient man-land relationship study. 相似文献
74.
Magnetic Influences of Cement Dust on Soil in Industrial Area and Its Environmental Implications 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
To monitor environmental implications of cement dust on soil in industrial area, magnetic parameters and mineral compositions were measured by the samples of the cement dust, cement factory dustfall, cement, coal ash, topsoil of green space in the factory and topsoil outside the factory. Results showed that the major magnetic minerals in the samples were magnetite, the magnetic mineral particle size of cement dust, dustfall, cement and coal ash was coarse Multi-Domian (MD) and Pseudo-Single-Domain (PSD). As topsoil of green space in the factory and topsoil outside the factory were polluted by cement dust, their magnetic properties had been obviously changed; the concentration of magnetic minerals elevated and particle size became coarser. The magnetic parameters (χfd,χARM/χ,χARM/SIRM) value can reflect the pollution level of the soil, the lower its value was, the more serious soil was polluted. X-ray diffraction results showed that the mineral compositions of the topsoil of green space in the factory and topsoil outside the factory were quartz and calcite, which were the same as cement dust. Magnetic parameters combination characteristics of topsoil can monitor the soil environmental changes in cement industry area. 相似文献
75.
For decades, various well-known empirical correlations have been established and commonly used to estimate the undrained shear strength of normally consolidated clays in geotechnical practice. However, there are still many contradictory cases regarding the validity of these correlations, so their applicability and reliability are questionable. In this study, an extensive geotechnical database for normally consolidated clays has been compiled. Next, a Bayesian nonparametric method is exploited to identify the most critical soil index properties in inferring the undrained shear strength and a new predictive model is proposed. Finally, the performance of the proposed predictive model is assessed and compared with two well-known correlations using an independent testing database. It confirms that the proposed model not only possesses high predictability, but also provides superior performance over other existing empirical correlations. 相似文献
76.
温室气体排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线检验与减排路径的冲击动态——基于黑龙江省统计核算数据 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
基于2001-2015年黑龙江省温室气体排放统计核算数据,对地区GDP与温室气体排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线关系检验呈现倒U型,预期2019年达到理论拐点;通过偏最小二乘回归模型得到4个减排路径的年平均减排效果顺序依次为单位GDP化石能源消费量减少、经济结构调整、人均GDP增长、贸易结构变化;减排路径对应脉冲响应函数的动态冲击效果分别为波动性增排、收敛性减排、发散性减排、转变的排放作用;推动黑龙江省温室气体减排的路径顺序为控制化石能源消费量、优化经济结构、发展低碳经济、调整贸易结构。 相似文献
77.
The public discourse surrounding many fishery management issues suggests that ethical concerns may be an important aspect of these issues for a segment of the American public. Questions have been raised about the capacity of regional fishery management councils created under the Fishery Conservation and Management Act to be adequately responsive to different ethical values. To date, legislative efforts to broaden council membership have been unsuccessful, but pressure for institutional reform is likely to increase with the adoption of an ecosystem approach to fishery management. 相似文献
78.
The benthic biomass values of various trophic groups were studied for the first time at the scale of the entire Bay of Seine (50 × 100 km) in the eastern English Channel. Sampling was carried out before and after the winter of 1999. In both cruises the suspension feeders dominated (66% of the 12 gAFDW m− 2 in 1998 and 56% of the 10 gAFDW m− 2 in 1999).The common European ophiuroid Ophiothrix fragilis was the most important contributor to total biomass. The repartition of its patches (sometimes > 20 gAFDW m− 2) cannot be explained by the environmental parameters recorded (viz., granulometry, organic matter and pigment content). 相似文献
79.
Hollie Grant 《社会与自然资源》2019,32(7):768-789
Why do environmental defenders continue to participate in community-based efforts to protect the environment despite threats to their lives and minimal success in deterring or punishing offenders? Examining Community Forestry initiatives in Cambodia, we find that forest protection is not only a means to gain environmental, economic, or social benefits, but also a means for forest defenders to assert themselves as political actors in relation to the state and other citizens. Rather than simply repressing and disciplining forest dwelling populations, violence against defenders shapes their subjectivity and re-politicizes their lives. Distinguishing between various forms of violence associated with different illicit forest users, we highlight how forest protection becomes a means of political self-expression and rights-based resistance as forest defenders reinterpret direct violence through experiences and understandings of structural and symbolic violence. Participation in CF thus unlocks ways of being political and contesting oppressive structures while acting within sanctioned institutions. 相似文献
80.
Andrea K. Gerlak Tanya Heikkila Sharon L. Smolinski Derek Armitage Dave Huitema Brendan Moore 《社会与自然资源》2019,32(9):1056-1064
This Commentary reflects on the state of the scholarship on learning for environmental and natural resource policy and governance. How have we been learning about learning? We highlight theoretical and empirical advancements related to learning, as well as areas of divergence between learning theories and frameworks, and underdeveloped knowledge around processes and outcomes. To address these limitations and improve progress in both theory and practice, we offer recommendations for learning scholarship by focusing on how to collectively engage in ‘learning about learning’. 相似文献