全文获取类型
收费全文 | 1284篇 |
免费 | 208篇 |
国内免费 | 260篇 |
专业分类
测绘学 | 121篇 |
大气科学 | 312篇 |
地球物理 | 483篇 |
地质学 | 501篇 |
海洋学 | 164篇 |
天文学 | 14篇 |
综合类 | 66篇 |
自然地理 | 91篇 |
出版年
2024年 | 4篇 |
2023年 | 13篇 |
2022年 | 32篇 |
2021年 | 53篇 |
2020年 | 53篇 |
2019年 | 61篇 |
2018年 | 48篇 |
2017年 | 47篇 |
2016年 | 60篇 |
2015年 | 55篇 |
2014年 | 61篇 |
2013年 | 90篇 |
2012年 | 73篇 |
2011年 | 80篇 |
2010年 | 59篇 |
2009年 | 78篇 |
2008年 | 72篇 |
2007年 | 81篇 |
2006年 | 68篇 |
2005年 | 64篇 |
2004年 | 71篇 |
2003年 | 66篇 |
2002年 | 43篇 |
2001年 | 46篇 |
2000年 | 45篇 |
1999年 | 37篇 |
1998年 | 47篇 |
1997年 | 35篇 |
1996年 | 32篇 |
1995年 | 38篇 |
1994年 | 29篇 |
1993年 | 28篇 |
1992年 | 20篇 |
1991年 | 12篇 |
1990年 | 14篇 |
1989年 | 10篇 |
1988年 | 7篇 |
1987年 | 2篇 |
1986年 | 1篇 |
1984年 | 6篇 |
1981年 | 3篇 |
1979年 | 1篇 |
1977年 | 5篇 |
1976年 | 1篇 |
1972年 | 1篇 |
排序方式: 共有1752条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
81.
通过对山西境内地震序列的分析计算,得出一个适合山西地区地震活动的概率模型。并以此模型对1989年前后的地震活动进行了计算,给出1989年以来山西地震频繁活动的理论依据,对今后的地震活动进行了预测。 相似文献
82.
本文根据极值理论建立了烈度超越给定值Ij的平均重现期公式,根据最大熵原理建立了未来T年烈度超越给定值Ij的概率和烈度超越给定值Ij的平均重现期之间的关系式。利用1022─1993年的地震资料,计算了临汾(36.10°N,111.50°E)周围4级以上地震在临汾造成的烈度,绘制了未来100年临汾的烈度超越概率曲线(地震危险性曲线)。结果表明,计算场地烈度的极值理论方法可作为地震危险性分析的综合概率法的补充和验证。 相似文献
83.
A Preliminary Study on the Probabilistic Estimation of Deaths from Future Earthquakes in North China
During the period from 1800 to 1989,the degree of fatalities(?from earthquakes in North China(Lat.34.0°-42.0°N,Long.107.5°-125.0°E)varied exponentially with the frequency of earthquake events(N),namely:N=37.71 exp(-0.72?(E-logD,D:deaths).For the periods from 1988 to 1998 and from 1999 to 2009,the probabilities for earthquakes to cause one thousand or more deaths in North China are estimated to be 0.37 and 0.50,respectively,by using the Gumbel's extreme value theory. 相似文献
84.
本文研究了生命线工程系统中运行设施的元件破坏状态和可靠性分析方法,给出元件的破坏状态分级标准、判断准则和元件可靠度的计算方法,这对建立一个实用的生命线工程抗震能力分析的专家系统是十分有意义的。 相似文献
85.
Mohammad Ashtari Jafari 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(1):237-252
The Bayesian probability estimation seems to have efficiencies that make it suitable for calculating different parameters
of seismicity. Generally this method is able to combine prior information on seismicity while at the same time including statistical
uncertainty associated with the estimation of the parameters used to quantify seismicity, in addition to the probabilistic
uncertainties associated with the inherent randomness of earthquake occurrence. In this article a time-independent Bayesian
approach, which yields the probability that a certain cut-off magnitude will be exceeded at certain time intervals is examined
for the region of Alborz, Iran, in order to consider the following consequences for the city of Tehran. This area is located
within the Alpine-Himalayan active mountain belt. Many active faults affect the Alborz, most of which are parallel to the
range and accommodate the present day oblique convergence across it. Tehran, the capital of Iran, with millions of inhabitants
is located near the foothills of the southern Central Alborz. This region has been affected several times by historical and
recent earthquakes that confirm the importance of seismic hazard assessment through it. As the first step in this study an
updated earthquake catalog is compiled for the Alborz. Then, by assuming a Poisson distribution for the number of earthquakes
which occur at a certain time interval, the probabilistic earthquake occurrence is computed by the Bayesian approach. The
highest probabilities are found for zone AA and the lowest probabilities for zones KD and CA, meanwhile the overall probability
is high. 相似文献
86.
Simultaneous identification of a single pollution point-source location and contamination time under known flow field conditions 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
A theoretical framework is presented that allows direct identification of a single point-source pollution location and time in heterogeneous multidimensional systems under known flow field conditions. Based on the concept of the transfer function theory, it is shown that an observed pollution plume contains all the necessary information to predict the concentration at the unknown pollution source when a reversed flow field transport simulation is performed. This target concentration C0 is obtained from a quadratic integral of the observed pollution plume itself. Backwards simulation of the pollution plume leads to shrinkage of the C0-contour due to dispersion. When the C0-contour reduces to a singular point, i.e. becomes a concentration maximum, the position of the pollution source is identified and the backward simulation time indicates the time elapsed since the contaminant release. The theoretical basis of the method is first developed for the ideal case that the pollution plume is entirely known and is illustrated using a synthetic heterogeneous 2D example where all the hydro-dispersive parameters are known. The same example is then used to illustrate the procedure for a more realistic case, i.e. where only few observation points exist. 相似文献
87.
The closed-form analytical stormwater quality models are developed for simulating urban catchment pollutant buildup and washoff processes. By integrating the rainfall–runoff transformation with pollutant buildup and washoff functions, stormwater quality measures, such as the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of pollutant loads, the expected value of pollutant event mean concentrations (EMCs) and the average annual pollutant load can be derived. This paper presents methodologies and major procedures for the development of urban stormwater quality models based on derived probability distribution theory. In order to investigate the spatial variation in model parameters and its impact on stormwater pollutant buildup and washoff processes as well as pollutant loads to receiving waters, an extended form of the original rainfall–runoff transformation which is based on lumped runoff coefficient approach is proposed to differentiate runoff generation mechanisms between the impervious and pervious areas of the catchment. In addition, as a contrast to the aggregated pollutant buildup models formulated with a single lumped buildup parameter, the disaggregated form of the pollutant buildup model is proposed by introducing a number of physically-based parameters associated with pollutant buildup and washoff processes into the pollutant load models. The results from the case study indicate that analytical urban stormwater management model are capable of providing results in good agreement with the field measurements, and can be employed as alternatives to continuous simulation models in the evaluation of long-term stormwater quality measures. 相似文献
88.
89.
A new method is proposed to inverse normalization data of hidden variables in a dynamical system by embedding a time series
in multidimensional spaces and applying a normalization analysis to the conditional probability density of points in the reconstructed
phase spaces. The method is robust in the application to Lorenz system and 4-dimensional R?ssler system by testing quantitatively
and qualitatively the correlation coefficient between inverse data and original data in time domain and in frequency domain,
respectively. By applying the method to analyzing the South China Sea data, the normalization data of wind speed is extracted
from the sea surface temperature time series. 相似文献
90.
可靠性数学在斜坡稳定性分析中的应用 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
本文将可靠性数学的相关理论引入斜坡稳定分析中,结合斜坡在变形破坏中的各影响因素均具有一定随机性的实际情况,提出了基于概率方法的斜坡稳定性可靠性计算公式,具有一定的现实意义。 相似文献