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利用江苏盐城和福建雷达回波资料,探空资料,天气实况,对独立参数降雹条件概率法识别雹云的应用范围,零度层高度对识别准确率的影响以及如何选取区分水平高的参数等问题进行了探讨,得出一些有意义的结论,有一定的实用价值。 相似文献
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Gordon Kaufman 《Natural Resources Research》1994,3(4):304-314
The relative efficiencies of alternative geometric patterns of both discrete borehole and continuous grid line search have been extensively discussed in the mathematical geology literature. However, an equally important problem has received virtually no attention: How to use a sample of properties of geologic anomalies detected by grid line search of a region to estimate systematically both the number and size distribution of geologic anomalies missed by the search. We show how estimation methods developed in the sample survey design literature can be adapted to this problem, and we apply these methods to data describing 94 anomalies identified by a seismic reconnaissance survey. 相似文献
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A simple method to contour local inhomogeneities using seismic data is proposed. It formalizes an approximate inversion method which is based on the interpretation of local inhomogeneities as making the differences between an actual seismic data set and a previous reference model. It uses the optimal statistical criteria of parameter estimation and recognition and the ray representation of the waves spreading. Any combination of direct, reflected and/or other types of waves may be used as the database. Inhomogeneities, having a size two times above the wavelength of the seismic waves, can be resolved. Laboratory experiments, using ultrasonic waves and analysis of data from field experiments, confirmed the theoretical results. The method can be used to search for ore bodies, kimberlite cubes, oiltraps, etc. 相似文献
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N. C. Lind H. P. Hong 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1991,5(1):77-87
The method of Relative Entropy with Fractile constraints (REF method) is explained and applied to model extreme compound hydrological phenomena, such as extreme sea levels under storm conditions. Also presented is a simple method of Tail Entropy Approximation (TEA), which amounts to a correction of traditional statistical estimates for extreme observations.Distribution assumptions are necessary but downplayed in the REF method, relegating the prior distribution to the role of an extrapolation function. The estimates are objective in an information-theoretical sense. They also satisfy a strict requirement of self-consistency that is generally not satisfied by standard statistical methods: invariance under monotonic transformations of the random variable.Historical records of storm surge levels in the Netherlands and annual maximum tidal heights for Sheerness, UK, are used as examples. Comparison is made with distributions obtained using other methods.It is concluded that the tail entropy approximation provides simple, objective estimates of extremes in the tail beyond the range of observations. 相似文献
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THE RESPONSE OF SUMMER DRYNESS/WETNESS PROBABILITY IN NORTH CHINA TO GLOBAL WARMING 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
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Huang Jiayou 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1994,8(1):41-50
Using the data of summer(June—August)precipitation during the period of 1951—1990 in 14 stations over NorthChina,the wetness probability(WP)series based on gamma distribution has been built.Main temporal and spatial char-acteristics for the series of WP in the stations are extracted by using empirical orthogonal functions(EOFs).The spatialpatterns show that the dryness/wetness variations in the stations in the area are consistent with each other and its maincharacteristics can be represented by the WP series in Beijing.Having analysed the WP series of 120 years(1870—1989)in Beijing,the results show that the dry tendency has a re-sponse to the global warming.The variation of the dryness/wetness in the stations is associated with the temperaturevariation in the Northern Hemisphere.Their relation is negative.The degree of the reliance is associated with the centuryvariation of the temperature. 相似文献
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一次较成功的中期地震概率预测实例 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
1988年底依据地震活动性资料,运用MYCIN不精确推理方法,提出了1989年及稍长时间的中国大陆中期地震趋势预测概率图,这是一次较成功的中期地震概率预测实例。 相似文献