Thermal bidirectional gap probability model for row crop canopies and validation

Land surface temperature is a key parameter in monitoring the status of crop water stress by remote sensing, and studying the water and energy balance in cropland ecosystem. The component temperatures of crop and soil are especially significant in remote …     

公路桥梁地震易损性和震后恢复过程

采用专家调查的方式,统计的我国各种主要公路桥梁在不同烈度的地震发生后可能遭受的结构破坏和功能损失,以及地震发生后所需要的恢复时间。通过分析,给出了大、中、小种规模的斜拉、悬索、板梁式和拱式桥梁的结构破坏概率矩阵、设施损失率、功能损失率分布、损失功能恢复所需要的时间和桥梁在遭受破坏期间所损失的工作日数,并将研究结果与唐山地震之后的实际调查结果进行了对比,得到了一些有益的结果。     

随机动力系统最优控制准则研究

根据线性二次最优控制理论,给出了系统随机最优控制的控制律一般形式。从目标控制量的物理意义出发,提出了基于系统概率密度演化分析的最优控制准则,建立了递阶层次的演化过程控制准则类。以线性单自由度体系随机地震反应最优控制为例,分析了各控制准则类的权矩阵参数优化结果,并根据最优控制律进行了系统随机最优控制研究。结果表明,本文提出的系统随机最优控制的控制律确定方法可以对系统性态进行有效的控制。     

耗能－隔震柔性底层钢管混凝土结构的振动台实验和损伤分析

本文采用人工神经元网络理论，对城市公路网络中的单元路段和桥梁的震害预测进行了探讨。在前人研究的基础上，提出了解决这一非确定性问题的一个有效的方法，对于深入研究生命线工程系统震害的规律具有普遍的意义，从而使我们有可能避免地震造成的破坏和最大限度地减小损失，为抗震减灾提供决策依据。     

地倾斜地震前兆异常的概率综合

对河北省及邻近地区９个地倾斜台站１２年的观测资料用调和分析法和周期滤波法进行全程处理,用统一的标准提取异常信息,在此基础上计算出各个单台的对应地震的概率增益,再进行单台综合和多台综合,结果表明,概率综合曲线上升超０．０５,转折之后半年内有Ｍｓ≥４．８级地震发生。     

Sediment cascades and the entangled relationship between human impact and natural dynamics at the pre-pottery Neolithic site of Göbekli Tepe,Anatolia

This study presents a meta-analysis of radiocarbon ages for the environs of Göbekli Tepe – one of the oldest monumental structures worldwide – using cumulative probability functions to diachronically assess phases of geomorphodynamic activity as controlled by natural or anthropogenic drivers. We employ sediment cascades as a heuristic framework to study the complex responses of the geomorphological system to various triggers at local to supra-regional scales. Possible triggers include climatic variability as documented by supra-regional hydroclimatic proxy data, regional demographic trends, and local to regional socioeconomic developments such as the emergence of sedentism or the introduction and dispersal of livestock herding. Our results show that phases of intensified geomorphodynamic activity occurred between ca. 7.4–7.0 and 5.8–3.3 ka BP. These phases roughly coincide with phases of population growth in southern Turkey and climatic variations in Turkey and the Levant. The phase between ca. 5.8–3.3 ka BP also corresponds to the time when organized agriculture and the seeder plough were introduced. Also, the identified phases are in agreement with the general trend of varying geomorphodynamic activity in the Eastern Mediterranean as driven by human impact and climatic change. However, neither the Younger Dryas–Holocene transition nor the development of herding during the Pre-Pottery Neolithic left a clear signature. We demonstrate how the different depositional environments in the studied landscape compartments vary with respect to their spatiotemporal coverage and discuss challenges when trying to understand processes that once shaped landscapes of past societies. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

应用线性合成概率方法探讨青藏高原北部地区强震趋势

基于周期谱分析基础上的线性合成概率预测方法,对青藏高原北部地区Ms≥7.0、Ms≥6.5强震进行了试验性研究,并利用其结果作为预测依据,对青藏高原北部地区强震趋势做了初步估计.利用该方法,本文还对东昆仑断裂带1900年以来的Ms≥7.0强震进行了研究.     

Analysis of Fog Probability from a Combination of Satellite and Ground Observation Data

The Cloud Type product, developed by the Satellite Application Facility to support to nowcasting and very short-range forecasting (SAFNWC) of EUMETSAT and based on Météosat-8/SEVIRI, identifies cloud categories, and especially low and very low clouds which are first estimates of areas where fog is likely to occur. This cloud type is combined with precipitation information from radar data and with hourly diagnostic analyses of 2-metre relative humidity and 10-metre wind to elaborate an hourly analysis of fog probability. This analysis provides four levels of fog probability with a 3-kilometre horizontal resolution: No risk, low-level risk, medium-level risk and high-level risk. An evaluation of such fog probability analyses versus a one-year set of French hourly SYNOP reports shows encouraging results (potential of detection = 0.73 for low and medium and high-level risks), even if false alarm ratios remain high. Most of the non-detections occur at twilight and are due to satellite non-detections. Eventually, we show case studies that clearly illustrate the high potential of the method.     

断层的大地震复发概率研究

本文以布朗过程时间物理模型为基础, 以地震孕育过程为研究主线, 计算了中国大陆地区主要活动断层在不同预测时段内的强震复发概率, 进而对断层的地震危险性进行了研究。 结果表明: 鲜水河断裂带、 阿尔金断裂带、 东昆仑断裂带、 小江断裂带这4条断层的强震复发概率值显著高于其他断裂带, 反映了这些断层所处地区的应力积累水平高于其他地区, 应属于未来可能复发强震的危险地带。