A computer method to calculate the convolution of statistical distributions

It is becoming increasingly important to determine probability distributions of combinations of random variables. Convolution is a technique by which the distribution of a sum of random variables can be determined. This paper presents some simplifications in order to reduce the numerical integrations and computer time. In addition, the method may be used with empirical nonanalytic distributions. While Monte Carlo methods are also appropriate for calculating the distribution, convolution can give at least as much accuracy as Monte Carlo methods with a reduction in computation. Two applications are presented: one approximates the distribution of percent sand in an area, and the other indicates a method of determining sample size when using the distribution of means to approximate normality.     

Thermal bidirectional gap probability model for row crop canopies and validation

Land surface temperature is a key parameter in monitoring the status of crop water stress by remote sensing, and studying the water and energy balance in cropland ecosystem. The component temperatures of crop and soil are especially significant in remote …     

基于支撑向量机概率输出的高光谱影像混合像元分解

提出利用支撑向量机（SVM）后验概率来分解高光谱影像的混合像元，通过支撑向量机的输出值转化为两两配对的后验概率，再由两两配对的概率值求得多类后验概率，并以像元所属类别的后验概率作为地物的组分信息。实验结果表明，该方法能较好地估计出混合像元的组分比。     

Statistics of Scalar Fields in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Based on Large-Eddy Simulations. Part II: Forced Convection

Forced convection in a quasi-steady atmospheric boundary layer is investigated based on a large-eddy simulation (LES) model. The performed simulations show that in the upper portion of the mixed layer the dimensionless (in terms of mixed layer scales) vertical gradients of temperature, humidity, and wind velocity depend on the dimensionless height z/z _i and the Reech number Rn. The peak values of variances and covariances at the top of the mixed layer, scaled in terms of the interfacial scales, are functions of the interfacial Richardson number Ri. As a result expressions for the entrainment rates, in the case when the interfacial layer has a finite depth, and a condition for the presence of moistening or drying regimes in the mixed layer, are derived. Profiles of dimensionless scalar moments in the mixed layer are proposed to be expressed in terms of two empirical similarity functions F _m and F _i , dependent on dimensionless height z/z _i , and the interfacial Richardson number Ri. The obtained similarity expressions adequately approximate the LES profiles of scalar statistics, and properly represent the impact of stability, shear, and entrainment. They are also consistent with the parameterization proposed for free convection in the first part of this paper.     

声波测井岩石波速统计分析

通常不同岩性的声波速度不同,同一岩性因裂隙发育和风化程度不同,声波速度也不相同。声波测井技术就是依据岩层的这一特性,划分不同岩层及岩层的风化破碎程度。这里对某铁路线的勘测的声波测井结果进行统计分析,给出了测区钻孔揭露的主要岩石较完整状态的声波波速统计值和异常发育概率统计。     

Analysis of Fog Probability from a Combination of Satellite and Ground Observation Data

The Cloud Type product, developed by the Satellite Application Facility to support to nowcasting and very short-range forecasting (SAFNWC) of EUMETSAT and based on Météosat-8/SEVIRI, identifies cloud categories, and especially low and very low clouds which are first estimates of areas where fog is likely to occur. This cloud type is combined with precipitation information from radar data and with hourly diagnostic analyses of 2-metre relative humidity and 10-metre wind to elaborate an hourly analysis of fog probability. This analysis provides four levels of fog probability with a 3-kilometre horizontal resolution: No risk, low-level risk, medium-level risk and high-level risk. An evaluation of such fog probability analyses versus a one-year set of French hourly SYNOP reports shows encouraging results (potential of detection = 0.73 for low and medium and high-level risks), even if false alarm ratios remain high. Most of the non-detections occur at twilight and are due to satellite non-detections. Eventually, we show case studies that clearly illustrate the high potential of the method.     

关于气象灾害笼罩面积与出现概率的一个定理

从气象图表(如天气图)上可以得到某气象灾害(如暴雨、高温,也可以是一般气象现象、要素、变量等)所笼罩的面积占总面积的百分比F,从气象资料中可以得到该气象现象的出现概率p。本文证明:F对时间的平均值等于p对天气图面积的平均值。本文初步讨论了这个定理的应用,还指出对这类问题的深入分析会引出分布函数概念和熵气象学。     

Traffic Assignment Forecast Model Research in ITS

As an important role in the development of ITS, traffic assignment forecast is always the research focus. Based on the analysis of classic traffic assignment forecast models, an improved traffic assignment forecast model, multi-ways probability and capacity constraint (MPCC) is presented. Using the new traffic as- signment forecast model to forecast the traffic volume will improve the rationality and veracity of traffic as- signment forecast.     

Development of Seismic Risk Scenarios Based on a Hybrid Method of Vulnerability Assessment

A hybrid methodology of vulnerability analysis is presented, involving elements from both empirical and theoretical methods. A model for correlating analytically calculated structural damage indices to loss (in monetary terms) is also proposed and calibrated against available statistical data. Probability damage matrices derived using this methodology are incorporated into a cost-benefit model tailored to the problem of estimating the feasibility of seismically rehabilitating the existing stock of reinforced concrete buildings in Thessaloniki, Greece. Losses calculated using the suggested procedure are found to be in good agreement with losses incurred during the 1978 Thessaloniki earthquake. The results of the present study also indicate that benefit/cost ratios for reinforced concrete buildings are quite low. Hence, it appears that a pre-earthquake strengthening programme is not economically justifiable.