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131.
132.
Urban Seismic Risk Evaluation: A Holistic Approach 总被引:3,自引:4,他引:3
Risk has been defined, for management purposes, as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences of hazardous
events that may occur in a specified period of time. However, in the past, the concept of risk has been defined in a fragmentary
way in many cases, according to each scientific discipline involved in its appraisal. From the perspective of this article,
risk requires a multidisciplinary evaluation that takes into account not only the expected physical damage, the number and
type of casualties or economic losses, but also the conditions related to social fragility and lack of resilience conditions,
which favour the second order effects (indirect effects) when a hazard event strikes an urban centre. The proposed general
method of urban risk evaluation is multi hazard and holistic, that is, an integrated and comprehensive approach to guide decision-making.
The evaluation of the potential physical damage (hard approach) as the result of the convolution of hazard and physical vulnerability
of buildings and infrastructure is the first step of this method. Subsequently, a set of social context conditions that aggravate
the physical effects are also considered (soft approach). In the method here proposed, the holistic risk evaluation is based
on urban risk indicators. According to this procedure, a physical risk index is obtained, for each unit of analysis, from
existing loss scenarios, whereas the total risk index is obtained by factoring the former index by an impact factor or aggravating
coefficient, based on variables associated with the socio-economic conditions of each unit of analysis. Finally, the proposed
method is applied in its single hazard form to the holistic seismic risk evaluation for the cities of Bogota (Colombia) and
Barcelona (Spain). 相似文献
133.
Logic-tree Approach for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis and its Applications to the Japanese Coasts 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Tadashi Annaka Kenji Satake Tsutomu Sakakiyama Ken Yanagisawa Nobuo Shuto 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(2-3):577-592
For Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), we propose a logic-tree approach to construct tsunami hazard curves (relationship
between tsunami height and probability of exceedance) and present some examples for Japan for the purpose of quantitative
assessments of tsunami risk for important coastal facilities. A hazard curve is obtained by integration over the aleatory
uncertainties, and numerous hazard curves are obtained for different branches of logic-tree representing epistemic uncertainty.
A PTHA consists of a tsunami source model and coastal tsunami height estimation. We developed the logic-tree models for local
tsunami sources around Japan and for distant tsunami sources along the South American subduction zones. Logic-trees were made
for tsunami source zones, size and frequency of tsunamigenic earthquakes, fault models, and standard error of estimated tsunami
heights. Numerical simulation rather than empirical relation was used for estimating the median tsunami heights. Weights of
discrete branches that represent alternative hypotheses and interpretations were determined by the questionnaire survey for
tsunami and earthquake experts, whereas those representing the error of estimated value were determined on the basis of historical
data. Examples of tsunami hazard curves were illustrated for the coastal sites, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard was
displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves. 相似文献
134.
Bellie Sivakumar 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2007,32(7):969-979
Whether or not river flow exhibits nonlinear determinism remains an unresolved question. While studies on the use of nonlinear deterministic methods for modeling and prediction of river flow series are on the rise and the outcomes are encouraging, suspicions and criticisms of such studies continue to exist as well. An important reason for this situation is that the correlation dimension method, used as a nonlinear determinism identification tool in most of those studies, may possess certain limitations when applied to real river flow series, which are always finite and often short and also contaminated with noise (e.g. measurement error). In view of this, the present study addresses the issue of nonlinear determinism in river flow series using prediction as a possible indicator. This is done by (1) reviewing studies that have employed nonlinear deterministic methods (coupling phase‐space reconstruction and local approximation techniques) for river flow predictions and (2) identifying nonlinear determinism (or linear stochasticity) based on the level of prediction accuracy in general, and on the prediction accuracy against the phase‐space reconstruction parameters in particular (termed as the ‘inverse approach’). The results not only provide possible indications to the presence of nonlinear determinism in the river flow series studied, but also support, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the low correlation dimensions reported for such. Therefore, nonlinear deterministic methods are a viable complement to linear stochastic ones for studying river flow dynamics, if sufficient caution is exercised in their applications and in interpreting the outcomes. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
135.
基于尺度的GIS空间资料表达模型 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:3
介绍了基于层的GIS空间资料表达方法易于进行空间查询与空间分析处理的优点,针对其引起的地图难以进行扩展与图像显示转换困难的缺点,提出了基于尺度(比例尺)的空间资料表达新方法.在基于尺度的空间资料表达方法中,地图可以由空间对象,区域,尺度视图三级尺度模型表达.对尺度方法下的地图结构,地图组织,指标结构,地图扩展等在理论上作了探讨,提出了基于尺度的方法与已广为使用的基于层的方法的有效集合,将有可能成为地理信息表达研究的最重要研究方向. 相似文献
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139.
海洋风暴形成的一种动力学机制 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
文中从观测统计学、瞬变涡动能量学和 MM5中尺度数值模拟角度 ,研究了海洋风暴 (爆发性气旋 )形成的气候特征及其可能的动力学机制 ,揭示了一幅爆发性发展的物理图像。结果表明 ,在冷季大气特别是日本以东洋面上大气特有的热力气候背景下 ,通过同海洋风暴过程相联系的涡动热通量 vθ的向极地输送 (- vθ· θm>0 ) ,将季节尺度的时间平均有效位能向瞬变涡旋时间尺度的涡动有效位能转换 ,是海洋风暴形成的主要动力机制。在该过程中转换来的具有最大贡献的涡动有效位能 ,连同具有次大贡献的积云加热制造的涡动有效位能(q3 )一起 ,通过暖异常区 (α >0 )暖湿空气上升运动 (-ω >0 )的斜压转换 (-ωα) ,促使涡动动能增长。同时 ,补充的涡动有效位能又加强了暖异常区的暖湿空气上升运动 ,进而产生积云对流活动及其潜热释放的正反馈过程 ,最终导致涡动动能急剧增长和海洋风暴的形成。海-气潜热输送的作用是在风暴形成初期提供后来积云尺度对流活动及潜热释放的水汽潜力。研究还表明 ,海洋风暴主要发生在冷季月份 1 3 0°E以东的中高纬洋面上 ,这种对特定季节和特定海域的依赖性是大气和海洋气候背景的动力 /热力共同作用的结果 相似文献
140.
动力刚度计算方法-"盐溶”法-的改进 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文首先讨论了采用盐溶法(damping-solvent extraction method)争动力刚度时,在某些频率点(奇点)产生误差的原因;提出一种多次逼近的改进办法,提高了计算精度。在一般情况下,动力刚度的奇点是未知的。本文建议的逼近技术可用于校核这一方法所获得的结果。 相似文献