北太平洋SST的时空分布特征及其与黑潮大弯曲和El—Nino的关系

用EOF分析方法对北太平洋及赤道太平洋地区1949～1979年31年海表面温度距平场进行分解,得到几个主要距平海温模态(EOF1～3),分析了EOF1～3的时空分布特征。得到海温距平场的EOF1和EOF2～3模态分别对E1—Nino事件和黑潮大弯曲有很显著的相关性,指出SST第三模态场对黑潮大弯曲的影响具有很好的持续性,持续时间为1～2年。最后讨论了相互的影响过程,为黑潮大弯曲和E1—Nino事件的预报的可能性提供了依据。     

Single point mooring system modal parameter identification based on empirical mode decomposition and time-varying autoregressive model

A method based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and time-varying autoregressive (TVAR) model is proposed here to identify the modal parameters of time-varying systems, such as the Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) single point mooring system. For the EMD–TVAR method, the original signal is decomposed into a finite number of ‘intrinsic mode functions’ (IMFs) by the EMD. Each IMF can be represented as a TVAR model. Then, the time-varying modal parameters i.e., instantaneous frequency (IF) and modal dumping, can be obtained by the basis functions expansion method. The proposed EMD–TVAR method has good results in two experiments compared with the Huang–Hilbert transformation and Short Time Fourier Transform method, and it has been used to analysis the modal parameters of FPSO single point mooring system successfully. The system's time-varying characteristic and its frequency distribution can be known from the modal analysis results.     

SEASONAL VARIATIONS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITIES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND ITS NEIGHBORHOOD AND THEIR COMPARATIVE ANALYSES IN THE STRONG AND WEAK CONVECTION YEARS*

The seasonal variations of convective activities over the South China Sea(SCS) and its neighborhood.as well as the similarities and differences of convection in the different key regions during the strong and weak convection years are analyzed by using the pentad data of TBB from 1980 to 1993.The results show that in winter and summer the seasonal variations of the convective activities are synchronous over the SCS and its neighborhood,the anomalous convection amplitudes are obviously different in different regions.The significant extents of convective activities have somewhat seasonal differences in the strong and weak convection years.In the strong convection years,it is in winter,spring and autumn that the convection anomaly is more evident than that in the normal years,however,after the summer monsoon onset the convection is sustained.stable and similar to that in the normal years.In the weak convection years.the convection weakens greatly in each season.but the primary weakening occurs in spring.summer and autumn.No matter in the strong or the weak convection years.the convective activities are somewhat of difference in the Bay of Bengal.the Indochina Peninsula.the SCS and the Philippines.In addition.the convective activities are also different over the south and the north parts of the SCS.the convection variation in the strong year is similar to that in the weak year over the north part of the SCS.but over the south part there are great differences.     

Empirical and conceptual modelling of the suspended sediment dynamics in a large tropical African river: the Upper Niger river basin

A 7-year sediment transport monitoring on the Upper Niger rivers was used to study the relationship between suspended sediment concentration and river discharge. During annual floods, these relationships show positive hysteresis. This paper presents the results of two models that estimate the time evolution of suspended sediment concentration using water discharge data only. The first model is based on a statistical approach using two relationships, one for the rising stage period of the flood and one for the recession period of the annual flood; the second model is a lumped conceptual one; it supposes that the sediment flux observed in the river comes from two different sources of sediment and that these two sources may be regarded as two different reservoirs. The erosion of the first reservoir represents hillslope erosion observed during the runoff season. Sediment supply from this ‘reservoir’ is limited in time because depletion occurs during the runoff season. The second reservoir is unlimited in time and quantity and its erosion represents contributions coming from bank erosion and mobilisation of deposits in the channel network.

Both of the models are compared with a simple rating curve based model. The model results show that the conceptual model has the highest efficiency to reproduce from weekly discharge only the time evolution of weekly suspended sediment concentrations, the time evolution of weekly sediment fluxes, and the global annual sediment yields.     

地震活动性的层次模型及推导的地震活动经验公式和分维性质

文章从一个简单的地震活动层次模型出发，推导地震活动性中几个经验公式以及地震活动的时、空和震源大小分维性质。研究结果表明：（１）震级和频度关系式即Ｇｕｔｅｎｂｅｒｇ－Ｒｉｃｈｔｅｒ公式中的比例系数ｂ值等于震级和平均震中距关系式中的比例系数ｂ１的２倍，并且ｂ值也等于震级和平均时间间隔关系式中的比例系数ｂ２。（２）平均震中距分维值为２，平均时间间隔分维值为１，震源大小分布的分维值的２ｂ。     

外辐射带区域新建地磁场经验模型的定量研究

准确的磁场模型对于辐射带粒子环境研究至关重要.本文利用美国Van Allen Probes（VAP）在2012至2018年期间测量的磁场数据和GOES15在2011至2017年期间测量的磁场数据,定量地评估了三个较新的外磁场经验模型（TS05、TA15和TA16）对外辐射带区域（3~6.6R_E）磁场的描述性能.本文选择预测效率（Prediction Efficiency,PE）作为评估指标,定量分析各模型在不同空间范围（Lm值）、不同地磁活动水平（Kp）以及不同磁地方时（MLT）下的性能表现,并且计算了观测磁场与模型磁场的夹角θ,以评估模型的磁场方向预测能力.结果表明：PE随Lm值增大,随地磁扰动增强而下降;θ随Lm值增大,随地磁扰动增强而增大.在Lm=5~6.5R_E范围内,PE呈现晨昏不对称性,MLT=12-21时的PE值小于MLT=0-9时的值,说明三个磁场模型可以较好地描述晨侧磁场的强度,但它们并不能很好地反映下午至昏侧磁场的大小;在地球同步轨道附近（Lm~6.6R_E）,PE呈现昼夜不对称性,MLT=9-15时的PE值大于其他时区的值,说明三个磁场模型可以很好地反映昼侧磁场大小,但在夜侧可能存在较大的误差.θ在MLT=6-12时的值小于其他时区的值,呈现昼夜不对称性,说明三个磁场模型可以较好地描述昼侧磁力线的分布位型,但在夜侧存在较大的方向描述误差.在外辐射带3~6.5R_E内,TA16模型与VAP磁场观测数据最为接近,PE均大于0.7,θ均小于3°;在地球同步轨道高度（6.6R_E）,TS05模型与GOES15卫星磁场观测数据最为接近,PE约为0.75,θ约为7°.相关的研究结果可以为我国星载高能粒子探测器探测数据的在轨交叉定标、辐射带高能粒子动态模型研究和相关的磁层环境理论/应用研究提供地磁场模型选择方面的参考.     

A study of the empirical functions of the height fields over India and their relation with the rainfall

The empirical orthogonal functions have been obtained for the individual summer monsoon (June through September) months using the grid point values of monthly 700 mb geopotential heights over Indian region. The data for 21 summer monsoon months for the years 1958 to 1978 have been used in the present computation. The major variance reduction is due to the first three dominant functions accounting over 80% of the total variance in each month. The variance reduction only due to the first function ranges from 45 to 65%. The first function has in-pbase oscillation throughout the area indicating that the area under study is homogeneous and the centre of the oscillation lies over northwest India. The amplitudes of the first function also show generally quasipers stence in their sign within a season. The second function has two centres of action over the region of monsoon trough which are in phase. The third function has also two centres oriented in the east-west direction but they are in the opposite phase. Fairly large values of correlation coefficients between the patterns of the different monsoon months suggest that the patterns for these months corresponding to the first and the second functions respectively are quite similar. The patterns for these months also evolve with time in a related way. The spectrum analysis to the time series of amplitudes indicates the presence of the quasi-periodicity of 3 years during these monsoon months. The amplitudes corresponding to the dominant functions are found to be significantly related with the rainfall of central and western parts of India     

Linear spectral unmixing algorithm for modelling suspended sediment concentration of flash floods,upper Tekeze River,Ethiopia

Flash floods are the highest sediment transporting agent,but are inaccessible for in-situ sampling and have rarely been analyzed by remote sensing technology.Laboratory and field experiments were done to develop linear spectral unmixing(LSU) remote sensing model and evaluate its performance in simulating the suspended sediment concentration(SSC) in flash floods.The models were developed from continuous monitoring in the laboratory and the onsite spectral signature of river bed sediment deposits and flash floods in the Tekeze River and in its tributary,the Tsirare River.The Pearson correlation coefficient was used to determine the variability of correlations between reflectance and SSCs.The coefficient of determination(R2) and root mean square of error(RMSE) were used to evaluate the performance of the generated models.The results found that the Pearson correlation coefficient between SSCs and reflectance varied based on the level of the SSCs,geological colors,and grain sizes.The performance of the LSU model and empirical remote sensing approaches were computed to be R2=0.92,and RMSE=±0.76 g/1 in the Tsirare River and R2=0.91,and RMSE=±0.73 g/1 in the Tekeze River and R2=0.81,RMSE=±2.65 g/l in the Tsirare river and R2=0.76,RMSE=±10.87 g/l in the Tekeze River,respectively.Hence,the LSU approach of remote sensing was found to be relatively accurate in monitoring and modeling the variability of SSCs that could be applied to the upper Tekeze River basin.     

软土覆盖层地震面波的地震动反应及台湾8级地震对上海高层建筑影响的估计

用2002年3月31日台湾Ms7．5地震时上海地区软土地表和基岩记录的加速度资料讨论了地表软土覆盖层面波的地震动反应，并用经验格林函数法合成了台湾未来8级大地震在上海基岩和土层处的面波加速度时程，初步估计了其对高层建筑的影响。其结果对上海的工程抗震设计有参考价值。