对地震预报的科学思考(一)地震预报某些经验与做法的再认识及思考地震预报问题的基本出发点

地震预报具有明显的双重属性: 科学性和社会性。 该文着重对地震预报科学性的问题做了评述, 强调地震预报必须以一定的科学理论为指导, 以科学的观测资料为基础, 以预报经验为借鉴。 文中对当前中国地震“活跃期”与“平静期”的划分以及根据地震前兆持续时间将地震孕育过程划分“长、 中、 短、 临”四个阶段和相应的地震“渐近式”预报程式, 和“以场求源”的预报思路做了简要的评论。 此外, 强调论及地震预报必须以浅源地震发生的物理实质及对孕震物理过程的基本认识作为思考问题的基本出发点。     

Truncation of the distribution of ground-motion residuals

Recent studies to assess very long-term seismic hazard in the USA and in Europe have highlighted the importance of the upper tail of the ground-motion distribution at the very low annual frequencies of exceedance required by these projects. In particular, the use of an unbounded lognormal distribution to represent the aleatory variability of ground motions leads to very high and potentially unphysical estimates of the expected level of shaking. Current practice in seismic hazard analysis consists of truncating the ground-motion distribution at a fixed number (ε _max) of standard deviations (σ). However, there is a general lack of consensus regarding the truncation level to adopt. This paper investigates whether a physical basis for choosing ε _max can be found, by examining records with large positive residuals from the dataset used to derive one of the ground-motion models of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project. In particular, interpretations of the selected records in terms of causative physical mechanisms are reviewed. This leads to the conclusion that even in well-documented cases, it is not possible to establish a robust correlation between specific physical mechanisms and large values of the residuals, and thus obtain direct physical constraints on ε _max. Alternative approaches based on absolute levels of ground motion and numerical simulations are discussed. However, the choice of ε _max is likely to remain a matter of judgment for the foreseeable future, in view of the large epistemic uncertainties associated with these alternatives. Additional issues arise from the coupling between ε _max and σ, which causes the truncation level in terms of absolute ground motion to be dependent on the predictive equation used. Furthermore, the absolute truncation level implied by ε _max will also be affected if σ is reduced significantly. These factors contribute to rendering a truncation scheme based on a single ε _max value impractical.     

经验格林函数法与随机有限断层法在合成近场强地震动中的联合运用

本文采取将经验格林函数法与随机有限断层法相结合的方式,突出体现了各自方法的优点,通过经验格林函数法确定地震震源参数,用随机有限断层法计算参数、检验其合理性。利用1998年新疆阿图什M6．9级地震的肘L4．7级余震记录,合成了这次地震的最大余震Ms6．0级地震的加速度记录,并将合成的结果与实际记录在频域和时域做了对比,分析研究了地震动特征和这次最大余震的可能破裂特征。同时对经验格林函数法需进一步改进的方向进行了探讨。     

西宁市区土层剪切波速随深度变化特征

通过对西宁市区67个钻孔剪切波速资料整理,采用最小二乘法进行统计回归分析,得到西宁市土层剪切波速Vs随土层埋深H的经验关系式,西宁市典型土类Vs与H的经验关系。并且通过实测剪切波速与预测剪切波速的对比,验证所得经验关系式的适用性。     

The response of the Sao Paulo Continental Shelf, Brazil, to synoptic winds

The response of the Sao Paulo Continental Shelf (SPCS) to synoptic wind forcing has been analyzed. Two different methods are used for this purpose, one based on hydrographic data, bottom topography, and geographical characteristics, and a second on analyzing currentmeter data directly and using empirical orthogonal functions. Both methods show similar results for an essentially barotropic shelf. The SPCS response in the subinertial frequency band appears to be trapped on the continental shelf. Numerical experiments have also been carried out showing results that qualitatively agree with the observations, including the velocity component parallel to the coastline. Supported by CAPES.     

Orthogonal Variance Structures in Lake Water Quality Data and Their Use for Geo-chemical Classification of Dimictic, Glacial/Boreal Lakes

The accumulating volumes of data collected within environmental monitoring programs facilitate the use of exploratory statistical methods of data analysis as a supplement to traditional methods of characterizing lake water quality. When principal component analysis and multidimensional scaling are applied to a matrix containing approximately 24000 samples of lake water quality variables pH, alkalinity, conductivity, hardness, color, Secchi depth and total phosphorus concentration, it is found that the total matrix variance can be approximately reproduced in an orthogonal two-dimensional base with transformations of hardness and color as best principal component representatives. This base is suggested as an empirical lake classification standard where the variance structure of subset lake populations (such as single lakes) can be referenced to the water quality standard of the generic population. Since the principal axes of the base exclusively contain inorganic and organic related variables respectively, the combined inorganic/organic characteristics of the lake can be expressed with the hardness and color variables alone. With the data matrix being large enough to produce high significance levels, and with variable ranges wide enough to represent a majority of dimictic, glacial/boreal lakes, the analysis results should be valid in many lakes throughout the world.     

黄河流域上游降水时空结构特征

黄河兰州以上区域水资源量占黄河流域水资源的一半以上,研究黄河上游兰州以上区域降水时空结构变化具有重要意义。本文利用黄河兰州以上19个降水站点1959~1998年系列数据,采用EOF技术分析了黄河上游降水的时空结构特征与变化。结果表明：黄河上游兰州以上区域降水存在四种典型降水类型,即“全部一致型”、“南北型”、“东西型”和“相间复杂型”。但第一特征向量为主导,其时间变化系数与年降水量基本一致,说明黄河流域兰州以上降水主要受青藏高原大尺度气候影响,具有降水偏多（少）一致性特征。从时间尺度上降水有减少的趋势;并伴随3、6、和11年的周期变化,而且在1986和1991年发生突变。     

1971—2018年陕西省人体舒适度日数时空变化特征

根据1971—2018年陕西省94个气象观测站逐日气象资料,采用线性倾向率、累积距平、小波分析和EOF分析等方法,对陕西省人体舒适度日数时空变化特征进行了统计分析。结果表明：陕西全省大部分时间体感状态为从冷到舒适,日数占85.2%;体感状态为暖和以上日数较少,无炎热和酷热天气。1981—2018年陕西省平均人体舒适日数为132 d,呈显著增多趋势,线性倾向率为0.524 d·a^-1,四季中春、夏两季人体舒适日数增加最为显著。人体舒适日数存在准4 a和准8 a的振荡周期,滑动T检验表明陕西省及三个地区的人体舒适日数均在1997年左右发生了明显的突变。陕西全省3—11月均存在舒适日,舒适日数主要分布在5—9月,陕北7—8月舒适日数较多,陕西中部6—8月舒适日数较多,陕西南部6—9月舒适日数较多。年人体舒适日数呈现南多北少的空间分布特征,陕南汉中和安康地区最多。EOF分析结果显示,年均人体舒适日数异常分布在全省存在一致性。倾向率空间分布表明陕西全省80%的地区人体舒适日数均呈增长趋势,仅榆林北部、延安北部和安康东部11个区县人体舒适日数呈减少趋势。陕西全省不舒适日数变化...     

A study of the seismic response of the city of Benevento (Southern Italy) through a combined analysis of seismological and geological data

A previous analysis [Improta, L., G. Di Giulio, and A. Rovelli (2005). Variations of local seismic response in Benevento (Southern Italy) using earthquakes and ambient noise recordings, J. Seism. 9, 191–210.] of small magnitude earthquakes recorded at 12 sites within the city of Benevento has stressed the significant role played by near-surface geology in causing variability of the ground motion. In this paper, we extend the study of the seismic response from 12 sites to the entire urban area. Based on inferences from the comparison at the 12 sites between earthquake and ambient vibration results, we have collected ambient noise at about 100 sites within the city, intensifying measurements across the main shallow geological variations. We use borehole data to interpret ambient noise H/V spectral ratios in terms of near-surface geology comparing H/V curves to theoretical transfer functions of 1D models along five well-constrained profiles.

On the basis of geological, geotechnical, and seismic data, we identify three main typologies of seismic response in the city. Each type of response is associated to zones sharing common soil conditions and similar soil classes according to building codes for seismic design. Moreover, we find that the spatial variation of the seismic response in the ancient town area is consistent with the damage pattern produced by a very destructive, well-documented historical earthquake that struck the city in 1688, causing MCS intensity of IX–X in Benevento.

Finally, we use ground motions recorded during the experiment by Improta et al. [Improta, L., G. Di Giulio, and A. Rovelli (2005). Variations of local seismic response in Benevento (Southern Italy) using earthquakes and ambient noise recordings, J. Seism. 9, 191–210.] to generate synthetic seismograms of moderate to strong (Mw 5.7, Molise 2002 and Ms 6.9, 1980 Irpinia) earthquakes. We calibrate the random summation technique by Ordaz et al. [Ordaz, M., J. Arboleda, and S.K. Singh (1995). A scheme of random summation of an Empirical Green's Function to estimate ground motions for future large earthquakes, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 85, 1635–1647.] using recordings of these earthquakes available in Benevento. After a satisfactory fit between observed and synthetic seismograms, we compute response spectra at different sites and speculate on effects of the geology class at large level of shaking, including soil nonlinearity. We find that large discrepancies from design spectra prescribed by seismic codes can occur for a wide sector of Benevento, especially for periods < 0.5 s.     

神经网络模型预报湖北汛期降水量的应用研究

使用人工神经网络方法建立了湖北省汛期 (6～ 8月 )总降水量的短期气候预测模型 ,该神经网络模型的输入是汛期前期 (2～ 4月 )的北半球月平均 5 0 0 h Pa高度场、海平面气压场和太平洋海温场的扩展自然正交展开 (EEOF)的前几个主要模态的时间系数 ,输出了湖北汛期降水场的自然正交展开 (EOF)的前 2个主要模态的时间系数。41 a历史资料的交叉检验表明 :样本试验的预报技巧评分平均为 0 .2 4 6 ,虽然该模型对各年的预报效果仍存在一定的不稳定性 ,但它可为湖北汛期降水的短期气候预测提供一种具有明显统计预报正技巧的预报方法