用数值预报释用方法做近海及登陆热带气旋强度预报

这是一个对GFS数值预报产品进行解释应用的方法.将支持向量机(SVM)回归方法应用于近海和登陆热带气旋(TC)的强度预报.从其本身强度,影响范围内气象因子情况,地形因子等三个方面,设计相关因子,建立预报模式,用来预报12、24、36、48、60和72 h的TC强度.总体上模式强度预报结果与中央气象台的预报结果相近,优于气候持续法的预报;趋势预报优势明显,可高出7～12个百分点.表明可以成为台风强度预报的另一个工具,投入业务应用.     

Predicting support of climate policies by using a protection motivation model

Taiwan aims to reduce its estimated 2020 CO₂ emissions by 45%. Attaining this goal will require strong policies and public support. In this study, a psychological model was tested to predict how Taiwanese citizens would support ten policies that mitigate or adapt to climate change. The model is an expansion of Protection Motivation Theory (PMT [Rogers, R. W. (1983). Cognitive and physiological processes in fear-based attitude change: A revised theory of protection motivation. In J. Cacioppo & R. Petty (Eds.), Social psychophysiology: A sourcebook (pp. 153–176). New York, NY: Guilford]) involving responsibility and the subjective effectiveness of alternative solutions (SEAS) as additional variables. Data were collected after conducting two surveys in Taiwan that involved a total of 394 respondents. The results indicated that perceived responsibility and SEAS predicted the support of only one to three of the policies. Regarding the PMT variables, severity and vulnerability did not affect the support of almost all policies. Policy support was primarily affected by the other three PMT variables: self-efficacy, response efficacy, and relative benefit. These three variables significantly affected most policies, accounting for 34–73% of the variance in public support. This suggests that PMT facilitates understanding of public support for climate policies.     

广州市三维地下空间决策支持系统研究

城市地下空间资源作为城市的重要自然资源,在城市基础设施建设、民防工程建设、环境建设等方面具有重要意义。提高地下空间资源的规划水平、开发水平、管理水平成为衡量一个城市现代化水平的重要指标。广州市三维地下空间决策支持系统通过分析广州市地下空间开发利用管理现状,实现地下空间信息处理的量化、可视化、实时更新与资源共享,是城市建设部门、管理部门、服务部门实现现代化管理的必备,是合理开发利用城市地下空间信息资源的基础。     

做好普查经费保障 提高普查工作效益

地理国情是重要的基本国情,做好重大国情国力调查,是了解国情、把握国势、制定国策的重要基础性工作。国务院决定于2013～2015年开展第一次全国地理国情普查工作,按要求黑龙江省第一次全国地理国情普查工作已全面启动。本文结合本省实际,从普查经费保障、资金使用管理,促进共建共享等方面,就促进我省地理国情普查工作顺利开展,充分发挥普查成果效益等进行探讨。     

三种高程异常拟合模型比较

将二次曲面、BP神经网络、最小二乘支持向量机应用与高程异常拟合,并用某地区数据进行了实验验证,结果表明,最小二乘支持向量机应用于高程异常拟合精度最优。     

基于SVM方法的航空高光谱赤潮信息提取与分析

从仪器到外业数据采集再到内业数据处理,较全面的阐述了航空高光谱赤潮监测的工作流程,并着重讨论了航空高光谱赤潮信息提取这一关键技术.采用专门针对小样本高维度的支持向量机模式识别方法,以2013年7月4日浙江舟山东福山赤潮高光谱数据为例,通过采集7个点位的赤潮海水和正常海水波谱曲线,研究分析赤潮海水的差异性特征,开展赤潮信息提取技术的研究,并对相同样本不同的提取方法进行了对比,通过分析,进一步证明了支持向量机方法的准确性和优越性.航空高光谱赤潮信息提取技术的研究可为航空赤潮业务化监测提供必要的技术基础.     

国内外海上风电机组基础结构设计标准浅析

对国内外海上风电机组基础结构设计规范和相关标准进行了对比研究,结合我国海上风电机组基础结构设计开发中遇到的问题,论述海上风电机组基础结构设计中关于安全理念和设计荷载的设计方法和标准;分析对比各国规范对海上风电机组基础结构设计的推荐做法,剖析各国规范的设计理念和方法;比较海上风电机组基础结构与海洋石油平台在设计理念和设计标准方面的异同,并根据海上风电和海洋油气的行业特点,分析海上风电机组基础结构设计规范和海洋石油平台设计规范对于海上风电机组基础结构设计的适用性。在此基础上,基于我国海洋工程技术和海上风电产业的发展水平,提出发展我国海上风电机组基础结构的设计建议,指出我国海上风电开发中应注意和避免发生的问题。     

Social,Institutional, and Psychological Factors Affecting Wildfire Incident Decision Making

Managing wildland fire incidents can be fraught with complexity and uncertainty. Myriad human factors can exert significant influence on incident decision making, and can contribute additional uncertainty regarding programmatic evaluations of wildfire management and attainment of policy goals. This article develops a framework within which human sources of uncertainty in wildfire management can be classified and managed, specifically identifying social, institutional, and psychological factors that can affect wildland fire incident decision making. These factors are reviewed in the context of wildland fire incident management and the literature regarding fire manager decision making. I then provide specific recommendations for addressing these issues, with a focus on improving incident decision processes. Extending this framework to consider a broader set of human factors and to consider how human factors affect the broader wildfire management spectrum could lead to improved fire management outcomes.     

Policy support,social capital,and farmers’ adaptation to drought in China

Increasingly severe drought has not only threatened food security but also resulted in massive socio-economic losses. In the face of increasingly serious drought conditions, the question of how to mitigate its impacts through appropriate measures has received great attention. The overall goal of this study is to examine the influence of policies and social capital on farmers’ decisions to adopt adaptation measures against drought. The study is based on a large-scale household and village survey conducted in six provinces nationwide. The survey results show that 86% of rural households have taken adaptive measures to protect crop production against drought, most of which are non-engineering measures. In the case of non-engineering measures, changing agricultural production inputs and adjusting seeding or harvesting dates are two popular options. A multivariate regression analysis reveals that government policy support against drought such as releasing early warning information and post-disaster services, technical assistance, financial and physical supports have significantly improved farmers’ ability to adapt to drought. However, since only 5% of villages benefited from such supports, the government in China still has significant room to implement these assistances. Moreover, having a higher level of social capital in a farm household significantly increases their adaptation capacity against drought. Therefore, the government should pay particular attention to the farming communities, and farmers within a community who have a low level of social capital. Finally, farmers’ ability to adapt to drought is also associated with the characteristics of their households and local communities. The results of this study also have implications for national adaptation plans for agriculture under climate change in other developing countries.     

湛江市海洋产业发展的资金支持研究

湛江是海洋经济总量连续多年稳居广东省第三的海洋大市,其海洋产业迎来了快速发展的良机,亟需资金支持。基于金融创新理论、信贷配给理论和融资约束理论等金融发展理论,在分析湛江海洋产业资金支持实践和存在问题的基础上,提出信贷政策引导、多层次资本市场融资、海洋投资信托基金、信用担保、海洋保险联动和海洋金融服务平台等方面的建议,为探索促进湛江市海洋产业的发展提供参考。