大震应急产品产出与服务平台建设

地震时空强参数已不能满足日益增长的最大限度减轻地震灾害的需求。作为国家级地震监测中心,中国地震台网中心联合各研究所和试点省局,建设了大震应急产品产出与服务平台。中强震发生后,该平台准实时产出除地震三要素之外的多类地震参数和图件,为及时准确评估受灾区域和灾损程度、揭示地震成因和致灾机理提供了丰富的基础资料,第一时间服务于救援决策和震情会商,显著提升了国家级地震监测中心的应急处置和践行减轻地震灾害的能力。     

市级灾害性天气应急服务系统

灾害性天气应急服务系统是市级气象台根据实际工作需要,研制开发的灾害性天气监测、预报预警业务系统。系统实现了对灾害性天气的实时监测,预警信息编辑、制作和发布,灾情快速评估及极端灾害性天气预报应急服务等功能。介绍了系统的功能特点和业务应用情况。为市级台站做好灾害性天气监测、预报和预警应急服务等工作提供了可借鉴的思路。     

国家防震减灾指挥中心的构成

介绍了防震减灾指挥中心作为领导和专家共同迅速有效处置地震应急事件的工作平台,该中心是国务院抗震救灾指挥的主要工作场所。防震减灾指挥中心包括指挥中心机房、指挥大厅和辅助工作区三部分。指挥中心建设是一项复杂的系统工程建设项目,包括了计算机系统、网络、通讯、声像、供电、空调、投影显示、GIS技术应用、数据库、软件开发、机房建设等。可对抗震救灾工作快速作出科学决策。     

地震应急数据库中人口数据预测——以乌鲁木齐市为例

利用统计年鉴、人口普查数据、遥感影像等资料,将乌鲁木齐市按区县级行政区域为单位提取近10年的人口数据,确定各区县历年来人口分布变化情况。挖掘研究区内人口-时间变量关系,建立人口预测模型——GM（1,1）模型,预测未来2年乌鲁木齐各区县人口数据,以弥补数据库数据因滞后2年无法及时更新所导致的数据空缺。     

GIS-based emergency response system for sudden water pollution accidents

The frequent occurrence of sudden water pollution accidents brings enormous risks to water environment safety. Therefore, there is great need for the modeling and development of early warning systems and rapid response procedures for current water pollution situation in China. This paper proposes an emergency response system based on the integration of Geographic Information System (GIS) technology and a hydraulic/water-quality model. Using the spatial analysis and three-dimensional visualization capabilities of GIS technology, we calculated pollutant diffusion measures, and visualized and analyzed the simulation results, in order to provide the services of early warning and emergency response for sudden water pollution accidents in the Xiangjia Dam area on the Yangtze River. The results show that the proposed system offers reliable technological support for emergency response to sudden water pollution events, and it shows good potential for wide applications in various aspects of water resources protection.     

A new approach on seismic mortality estimations based on average population density

This study examines a new methodology to predict the final seismic mortality from earthquakes in China. Most studies established the association between mortality estimation and seismic intensity without considering the population density. In China, however, the data are not always available, especially when it comes to the very urgent relief situation in the disaster. And the population density varies greatly from region to region. This motivates the development of empirical models that use historical death data to provide the path to analyze the death tolls for earthquakes. The present paper employs the average population density to predict the final death tolls in earthquakes using a case-based reasoning model from realistic perspective. To validate the forecasting results, historical data from 18 large-scale earthquakes occurred in China are used to estimate the seismic morality of each case. And a typical earthquake case occurred in the northwest of Sichuan Province is employed to demonstrate the estimation of final death toll. The strength of this paper is that it provides scientific methods with overall forecast errors lower than 20 %, and opens the door for conducting final death forecasts with a qualitative and quantitative approach. Limitations and future research are also analyzed and discussed in the conclusion.     

基于TOPSIS评价法的城市应急避难所选址适宜性评价研究

由于城市中人口高度聚集,一旦发生灾害需疏散受灾居民到应急避难所中,因此应急避难所选址的合理性与适宜性就成为研究的重点。本文从经济性、效率性、公平性、安全性、可达性及环境因素等6个方面出发,选取12个应急避难所选址适宜性评价因子,并构建评价指标体系;利用TOPSIS评价方法构建适宜性评价模型,对研究区42处备选应急避难所的适宜性进行评价,结果表明:优秀级别8个、良好级别10个、中等级别23个、差等级别1个。研究结果可为应急管理部门在选择应急避难所建设位置时提供决策依据。     

虚拟技术在地震应急指挥技术系统中的应用

利用虚拟技术,可将原来在多台服务器上部署的地震应急指挥技术系统在一台高性能服务器上实现容灾备份,在节约硬件资源的同时,虚拟机灵活部署、快速恢复的特性也能提高整个系统的灵活性、可靠性.本文对什么样的服务器可作为地震应急指挥系统的虚拟服务器,如何规划虚拟应用,虚拟部署后的系统与原系统比较有何差异等进行了研究.本文的研究结果可为全国各省区域应急指挥中心的容灾备份提供参考依据.     

移动地质灾害应急指挥系统设计与实现

本文讨论了ArcGIS空间分析、数据库管理和移动通信等技术,并分析了地质环境因子、地质灾害危险性预报预警等级图及实际灾害点信息,将其与智能手机结合,建立了移动地质灾害应急指挥系统。通过系统随时随地获取可靠的地质灾害预警预报信息,提高对突发性地质灾害的反应能力,从而达到有效防灾、减灾的目的。