Runoff Simulation of Three Gorges Area in the Upper Yangtze River during 1998 Flood Season

The contribution of areal precipitation of the catchment from Cuntan to Yichang (Three Gorges area) to eight flood peaks of the Upper Yangtze River (the upper reaches of the Yangtze River) is diagnosed for 1998 flood season. A rainfall-runoff model is employed to simulate runoffs of-this catchment. Comparison of observed and simulated runoffs shows that the rainfall-runoff model has a good capability to simulate the runoff over a large-scale river and the results describe the eight flood peaks very well. Forecast results are closely associated with the sensitivity of the model to rainfall and the calibration processes. Other reasons leading to simulation errors are further discussed.     

The Application of ARGO Data to the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Operational System of NCC

1. Introduction It is well-known that the state of ocean plays very important role in the climate change. But there is a paucity of the ocean observation data. The data distri- bution in the space, time and different components is very inhomogeneous, even in some areas, there are no any observation data. Hence, it brings some diffcul- ties to the scientists to study many problems relevant to ocean. This situation has been being changed since ARGO (Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanogra-…     

The Terrestrial NPP Simulation in China since 6ka BP

1. IntroductionAccording to the reconstruction of paleo-temperature based on δ18 O data of ice core in theGreenland (see Jouzel et al., 1987; Grootes et al.,1993; Blunier and Brook, 2001), the current inter-glacial epoch, the Holocene, began at ca. 11.5 thou-sand years before present (ka BP). Multiple sources(pollen data, macrofossils) reveal that the summer cli-mate in the Northern Hemisphere was warmer in theearly to middle Holocene (MH) (ca. 8-6ka BP) relativeto the present climate. …     

大震前井水位长周期波生成机理的实验证据

根据一些学者的岩石力学实验结果证实岩石在大破裂前能够产生一种长周期、小振幅的低频事件,并依此来解释大震前井水位长周期事件的物理机制.研究结果表明,大震前井水位长周期事件反映了震源的内部信息,是大震前断裂失稳扩展前预扩展所产生的一种波,是震源成核过程的反映.     

小波分析方法在提取井水位潮汐因子震前变化特征的初步应用

运用小波分析方法对1990年常熟、1995年苍山和1996年南黄海三个中强地震前江苏地区井水位固体潮的变化特征进行了研究，发现井水位M2波潮汐因子在地震前几个月几乎都出现一个幅度较大、周期为半月或一个月左右的异常信号，表明小波分析方法在处理和分析井水位潮汐资料方面可能是一种有效的方法。     

中国大陆地区中强地震前加卸载响应比异常时间尺度的统计研究

加卸载响应比理论是近年来提出的地震预测方法。本文进行了加卸载响应比异常时间尺度的统计研究，其中包括中国大陆地区5．0～8．1级的部分中强地震共30个震例，并得出加卸载响应比异常的时间尺度与未来地震震级之间的拟合函数。结果表明，地震前加卸载响应比异常的时间尺度与未来地震的震级具有正变关系，即震级越高，地震前加卸载响应比异常的时间尺度越长。根据加卸载响应比异常的时间尺度与震级之间的关系可以估计未来地震的发震时间，同时，可以确定加卸载响应比时空扫描过程中时问长度的大小。     

The reflection of plane waves in a poroelastic half-space saturated with inviscid fluid

This paper discusses surface displacements, surface strain, rocking, and energy partitioning during reflection-of-plane waves in a fluid-saturated poroelastic half-space. The medium is modeled by Biot's theory, and is assumed to be saturated with inviscid fluid. A linear porosity-modulus relation based on experimental data on sandstones is used to determine the material parameters for Biot's model. Numerical results in terms of angle of incident waves and Poisson's ratio are illustrated for various porosities and degrees of solid frame stiffness. The results show that the amount of solid frame stiffness controls the response of a fluid-saturated porous system. A poroelastic medium with essentially dry-frame stiffness behaves like an elastic medium, and the influence of pore fluid increases as dry-frame stiffness is reduced. The effects of a second P-wave become noticeable in poroelastic media with low dry-frame stiffness.     

Intermittent chaos in nonlinear wave–wave interactions in space plasmas

There is increasing observational evidence of nonlinear wave–wave interactions in space and astrophysical plasmas. We first review a number of theoretical models of nonlinear wave–wave interactions which our group has developed in the past years. We next describe a nonlinear three-mode truncated model of Alfvén waves, involving resonant interactions of one linearly unstable mode and two linearly damped modes. We construct a bifurcation diagram for this three-wave model and investigate the phenomenon of intermittent chaos. The theoretical results presented in this paper can improve our understanding of intermittent time series frequently observed in space and astrophysical plasmas.