中国大陆西部及邻区板内8级大地震活动过程和趋势预测初步研究

中国大陆西部及邻区是全球 8级大地震最为活跃的地区之一。自 180 0年以来该区板内 8级大地震共发生了 16次 ,2 0 0 1年昆仑山口西 8.1级大地震 (36 .1°N ,90 .9°E)是在 195 7年蒙古 8.3级大地震之后 4 4a发生的。研究表明该区 8级大地震的活动过程可能存在相对平静 (1812— 190 2年 )和相对活跃 (190 3— 195 7年 )交替的幕式或轮回过程的性质。 195 7年蒙古地震之后可能是一次新的轮回开始 ,2 0 0 1年昆仑山口西地震是新轮回的第二次地震 ,按照轮回过程中事件发生频度是时间的指数函数关系的假定 ,该区下一次 8级大地震可能约在 2 0 2 6年发生。如果假定该过程相当接近泊松过程。那么 ,在 2 0 0 5 ,2 0 10年和 2 0 15年前至少发生一次 8级大地震的泊松概率 ,分别是 0 .2 9,0 .5 3和 0 .70。     

德令哈6．6级地震前卫星红外长波辐射OLR的分析

应用NOAA卫星资料反演的地震长波辐射值OLR对2003年4月17日发生在青海省德令哈西的6．6级地震进行了追踪研究。结果显示：2003年1月起OLR距平值出现明显的高值异常区域。     

Modeling of Rayleigh waves dispersion in the Sannio region (Southern Italy) from seismic active refraction data

Short period surface waves, recorded during a seismic refractionsurvey in the Sannio region (Southern Italy), have been modeled to infera shallow velocity model for the area. Based on the decrease of resolutionwith depth, due to the bias on group velocity estimates arising frominterference of the Rayleigh waves with higher modes, we carried out aprocedure of fitting, with synthetic seismograms, of selected filtered traceswith a gaussian filter, having a width at half height equal to 1 Hz and acentral frequency lying in the range [1,4] Hz. We estimated the likelihoodbetween synthetic and observed seismograms by measuring their semblance.In this way we were able to infer a more refined local velocity modelcharacterized by a high Vp and Vs vertical gradient in the sedimentarycover. Two ad hoc resolution studies, based on group velocity andamplitude data respectively, indicate that the local velocity model is a goodvelocity model also for the entire studied area. The increase in the numberof available data when using amplitude information allows us to make amore selective choice in the model parameter space (Vp and Vs of eachlayer) and to solve for the Vp/Vs ratio. The inferred Vp velocity in thehalf-space is equal to 2.8 km/s. This value is in excellent agreement withthat inferred by other authors (3 km/s) by modeling P-wave travel timevs. distance. The best-fit model furnish low Vp/Vs for the sedimentarycover so indicating a high degree of the sediment's compaction in thestudied area. The inferred shallow high-velocity gradient indicates thatthe shallow sedimentary layer in the area could trap and focus the energytraveling into it.     

Effect of asymmetry and irregularity of seismic waves on earthquake-induced differential settlement of buildings on natural subsoil

The effect of asymmetry and irregularity of the inputted seismic waves on the earthquake-induced differential settlement of the buildings on natural subsoil is investigated in terms of the earthquake damage phenomena, theoretical analyses, dynamic triaxial tests and shaking table tests. A conclusion can be drawn from the investigation results that, the asymmetrical and irregular character of the inputted seismic waves themselves may have a significant contribution to the differential settlement of subsoil and buildings in some cases, and this is a necessary factor to be considered in reasonable evaluation for the differential settlement and other problems relating to the soil deformation due to earthquakes.     

Evaluation of liquefaction potential using neural-networks and CPT results

In this research, a reliable Cone Penetration Test data set was gathered with a wide range of parameters. This data was incorporated in a Neural-Networks computer software called STATISTICA Neural-Networks. The back propagation algorithm with a multilayer perceptron network is utilized to analyze the liquefaction occurrence in different sites. In this study, different sets of effective parameters for the neural-network analyses are selected such that to reduce the noise and to obtain more accurate results.Considering the relative importance of effective parameters in liquefaction assessment, it is indicated that σ₀, σ′₀ together play a more important role than what previously was assumed and hence the relative importance of the q_c and seismic parameters are decreased compared with the previous works. The results presented here have more accuracy than previous works while at the same time, the range of the parameters used in this study is much wider than what was previously used. This range of parameters makes the proposed method applicable for practical purposes.     

Petrography and uplift history of the Quaternary Takidani Granodiorite: could it have hosted a supercritical (HDR) geothermal reservoir?

The Quaternary Takidani Granodiorite (Japan Alps) is analogous to the type of deep-seated (3–5 km deep) intrusive-hosted fracture network system that might support (supercritical) hot dry/wet rock (HDR/HWR) energy extraction. The I-type Takidani Granodiorite comprises: porphyritic granodiorite, porphyritic granite, biotite-hornblende granodiorite, hornblende-biotite granodiorite, biotite-hornblende granite and biotite granite facies; the intrusion has a reverse chemical zonation, characterized by >70 wt% SiO₂ at its inferred margin and <67 wt% SiO₂ at the core. Fluid inclusion evidence indicates that fractured Takidani Granodiorite at one time hosted a liquid-dominated, convective hydrothermal system, with <380°C, low-salinity reservoir fluids at hydrostatic (mesothermal) pressure conditions. ‘Healed’ microfractures also trapped >600°C, hypersaline (35 wt% NaCl_eq) fluids of magmatic origin, with inferred minimum pressures of formation being 600–750 bar, which corresponds to fluid entrapment at 2.4–3.0 km depth. Al-in-hornblende geobarometry indicates that hornblende crystallization occurred at about 1.45 Ma (7.7–9.4 km depth) in the (marginal) eastern Takidani Granodiorite, but later (at 1.25 Ma) and shallower (6.5–7.0 km) near the core of the intrusion. The average rate of uplift across the Takidani Granodiorite from the time of hornblende crystallization has been 5.1–5.9 mm/yr (although uplift was about 7.5 mm/yr prior to 1.2 Ma), which is faster than average uplift rates in the Japan Alps (3 mm/yr during the last 2 million years). A temperature–depth–time window, when the Takidani Granodiorite had potential to host an HDR system, would have been when the internal temperature of the intrusive was cooling from 500°C to 400°C. Taking into account the initial (7.5 mm/yr) rate of uplift and effects of erosion, an optimal temperature–time–depth window is proposed: for 500°C at 1.54–1.57 Ma and 5.2±0.9 km (drilling) depth; and 400°C at 1.36–1.38 Ma and 3.3±0.8 km (drilling) depth, which is within the capabilities of modern drilling technologies, and similar to measured temperature–depth profiles in other active hydrothermal systems (e.g. at Kakkonda, Japan).     

Acoustic and electromagnetic properties of soils saturated with salt water and NAPL

Electrical, seismic, and electromagnetic methods can be used for noninvasive determination of subsurface physical and chemical properties. In particular, we consider the evaluation of water salinity and the detection of surface contaminants. Most of the relevant properties are represented by electric conductivity, P-wave velocity, and dielectric permittivity. Hence, it is important to obtain relationships between these measurable physical quantities and soil composition, saturation, and frequency. Conductivity in the geoelectric frequency range is obtained with Pride's model for a porous rock. (The model considers salinity and permeability.) White's model of patchy saturation is used to calculate the P-wave velocity and attenuation. Four cases are considered: light nonaqueous phase liquid (LNAPL) pockets in water, dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) pockets in water, LNAPL pockets in air, and DNAPL pockets in air. The size of the pockets (or pools), with respect to the signal wavelength, is modeled by the theory. The electromagnetic properties in the GPR frequency range are obtained by using the Hanai–Bruggeman equation for two solids (sand and clay grains) and two fluids (LNAPL or DNAPL in water or air). The Hanai–Bruggeman exponent (1/3 for spherical particles) is used as a fitting parameter and evaluated for a sand/clay mixture saturated with water.Pride's model predicts increasing conductivity for increasing salinity and decreasing permeability. The best-fit exponent of the Hanai–Bruggeman equation for a sand/clay mixture saturated with water is 0.61, indicating that the shape of the grains has a significant influence on the electromagnetic properties. At radar frequencies, it is possible to distinguish between a water-saturated medium and a NAPL-saturated medium, but LNAPL- and DNAPL-saturated media have very similar electromagnetic properties. The type of contaminant can be better distinguished from the acoustic properties. P-wave velocity increases with frequency, and has dissimilar behaviour for wet and dry soils.     

Seismic risk assessments and GIS technology: applications to infrastructures in the Friuli–Venezia Giulia region (NE Italy)

This paper illustrates the seismic risk preliminary estimates of two different groups of structures located on the territory of the Friuli–Venezia Giulia region (NE Italy) : the first group includes some special industrial plants, and the second group includes bridges and tunnels belonging to the regional highway network. The part of the study on special industrial plants tries to evaluate the degree of expected damage, taking into account their structural typology and ground shaking expressed in terms of macroseismic intensity. The second part of the study is an application of the HAZUS methodology to the tunnels and bridges of a highway network: the combination of expected ground shaking and the construction characteristics lead to very different risk levels, especially when considering the bridges. The resulting damage levels to bridges and tunnels are still only indicative because of the fragility curves used in the evaluations: they were developed for existing bridge and tunnel structural typologies in the U.S.A. Moreover, both examples show the power of GIS technology in storing, elaborating, and mapping spatial data. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Lithology and palynology of Neogene sediments on the narrow edge of the Kitakami Massif (basement rocks), northeast Japan: Significant change for depositional environments as a result of plate tectonics

Abstract A controversial stratigraphic section, the Taneichi Formation, is exposed along the Pacific Coast of northeastern Honshu, the main island of the Japanese Archipelago. Although most sediments of the formation have long been dated as late Cretaceous, the northern section of it has been assigned to (i) the Upper Cretaceous; (ii) the Paleogene; or (iii) the Neogene. In the present report, we present the data of palynological and sedimentological studies, showing that the northern section should be assigned to the Neogene. A more important point in the present study is that we invoke some basic principles of fluvial sedimentology to resolve this stratigraphic subject. The lignite layers full of Paleogene–Miocene dinoflagellate cysts and pollen assemblages drape over the boulder‐sized (>40 cm in diameter) clasts in the northern section. However, the layers totally consist of aggregates of small lignite chips, indicating that the lignites are allochthonous materials. The mega‐clasts with derived microfossils in the lignites are thought to have been deposited as Neogene fluvial (flood) sediments in the newly formed Japanese Archipelago. Prior to the Miocene, the northern Honshu was part of the Eurasian Plate, thus the boulder‐sized clasts cannot be envisaged as long river flood deposits along the continental Paleogene Pacific Coast. Instead, the mega‐clasts with the draping lignites were probably derived from nearby Miocene highlands in the newly born island arc.