利用前兆事件对云南地区地震进行中短期预测研究

对某些类型的主震事件, 进行中短期预测也许是可能的. 利用Varnes, Bufe和Varnes提出的破裂时间法模拟前兆地震能量加速释放模型,通过实际观测资料与理论公式的拟合, 可以建立主地震事件的中短期预测技术, 用以确定表示主震的地点、时间和震级大小. 本文使用的是云南区域台网的地震目录资料，覆盖的时间段为1965~2002年. 统计分析表明，在此37年时间内，等于或大于2.5级地震资料是相当完整的. 本文对云南地区的30次主震事件进行了模拟，其中25次主震事件由前兆序列模拟得到的预测时间和震级与实际值相当接近，主震震级预测精度约0.57个震级单位，假定已知前兆序列中最后一次事件，则预测主震发生时间误差约0.64年.对另外的5次主震事件，由于没有足够的前兆事件来充分确定前兆能量加速曲线或是存在对能量加速释放曲线的干扰事件，而不能进行破裂时间法模拟.本文的研究结果还表明，由于云南是破坏性地震和中小地震活跃的地区，因此，主地震与前兆事件最佳搜索半径不存在明显的线性关系.主震矩与系数k，m之间存在强烈的相关性，利用主震地震矩与系数的关系和限制指数m的取值范围，可进一步缩小预测时间和预测震级的最佳拟合区范围，提高了模拟主震事件的预测精度. 本文采用破裂时间法对30次主震事件进行拟合，80％以上获得了较好的结果. 显示出该方法在预测已知主震事件序列的能力方面大有希望，因此，利用前兆事件对未来主震事件进行中短期预测的前景是令人鼓舞的.      

具有空间分布裂缝岩石的随机介质模型

利用随机过程的谱展开理论以及Hudson等人的裂纹介质模型构造一种裂纹数密度是空间平稳随机过程的随机介质模型。这个模型可以将裂纹的微观参数(裂纹数密度)与裂纹介质的宏观性质(弹性常数)联系起来,能灵活、有效地描述实际非均匀裂纹介质。模型算例表明,弹性常数的空问分布特征与裂纹数密度的有差别,而且对不同的弹性常数影响不同。通过改编自相关长度的大小,可以模拟裂缝在两个坐标轴方向上具有不同分布尺度的情况。最后,利用高阶的交错网格有限差分方法,我们模拟了地震波在具有随机分布裂缝岩石中的传播特征。     

The effect of an interface boundary layer on the resonance properties of a buried structure

This paper presents a model for the analysis of the diffraction of plane waves at a cavity in an infinite homogeneous linear elastic medium supported by a segmented lining. An elastic boundary layer is introduced between the cavity lining and the infinite medium. The boundary layer is simulated by ‘elastic boundary conditions’ in which the stress is proportional to the relative displacement of the lining and of the surrounding medium boundary. A closed‐form analytical solution of the problem was obtained using the Fourier–Bessel series, the convergence of which was proven. It was shown that the number of series terms required to obtain a desired level of accuracy can be determined in advance. Using amplitude–frequency response analysis it was shown that the boundary layer produces additional ‘pseudo‐resonance’ frequencies that depend on the layer properties. These frequencies are almost identical to the eigenvalues obtained from the simple analysis of a segmented elastically supported lining. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地气测量方法研究及应用

通过对不同介质地气的空白、样品的各种对比分析,基本上可以肯定:含有一定浓度的高纯的液体捕集介质在一定程度上对地气样品的捕集是有效的,并具有元素含量本底低、易操作、分析过程简单等优点;不同介质对地气中不同元素的捕获能力有差异,王水对Au、Ag、Cu、Zn等元素的捕获能力要强于硝酸,泡塑对金元素的吸附也有一定的优势。因此,在今后的实际工作中,可根据具体矿床类型,选择合适的介质或2种介质配合使用。     

第二松花江流域水电厂综合中长期水文预报的分析研究

基于对第二松花江流域上游小山、松山、两江水电站中长期水文预报研究成果，论述了综合中长期水文预报的研究思路和定性预报、定量预报的分析研究方法。该研究通过2002年实践检验，具有较高的预报精度。     

Optimisation de la quantification des flux de matière en suspension d'un cours d'eau alpin : l'Isère à Grenoble (France)

This study seeks to determine suspended-matter flux of the Isère at Grenoble, one of the most important rivers of the northern French Alps. Since 1994, and especially 1996, systematic samplings of the left bank make it possible to follow in one point the variations of suspended particles and matter (SPM) of this river. But from a single measurement, sometimes not very representative of the whole observable concentrations within the section, it remains still difficult to estimate precisely the SPM flux. The results of this study show in particular the successive appearance of several turbidity gradients, whose occurrence is explained mainly by the hydrological and hydro-sedimentary dynamics of this river. The estimate of these gradients thus makes it possible to extrapolate specific measurements more easily and consequently to daily define the quantities of suspended matter exported by the Isère. Since 1996, the results show a very high flow, specific of the Isère at Grenoble, variable between 124 and more than 460 t km^?2 yr^?1. To cite this article: D. Dumas, C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).     

Signatures in flowing fluid electric conductivity logs

Flowing fluid electric conductivity logging provides a means to determine hydrologic properties of fractures, fracture zones, or other permeable layers intersecting a borehole in saturated rock. The method involves analyzing the time-evolution of fluid electric conductivity (FEC) logs obtained while the well is being pumped and yields information on the location, hydraulic transmissivity, and salinity of permeable layers. The original analysis method was restricted to the case in which flows from the permeable layers or fractures were directed into the borehole (inflow). Recently, the method was adapted to permit treatment of both inflow and outflow, including analysis of natural regional flow in the permeable layer. A numerical model simulates flow and transport in the wellbore during flowing FEC logging, and fracture properties are determined by optimizing the match between simulation results and observed FEC logs. This can be a laborious trial-and-error procedure, especially when both inflow and outflow points are present. Improved analyses methods are needed. One possible tactic would be to develop an automated inverse method, but this paper takes a more elementary approach and focuses on identifying the signatures that various inflow and outflow features create in flowing FEC logs. The physical insight obtained provides a basis for more efficient analysis of these logs, both for the present trial and error approach and for a potential future automated inverse approach. Inflow points produce distinctive signatures in the FEC logs themselves, enabling the determination of location, inflow rate, and ion concentration. Identifying outflow locations and flow rates typically requires a more complicated integral method, which is also presented in this paper.     

Mise au point d'un milieu de culture pour l'étude de l'altération de silicates en présence de Pseudomonas aeruginosa

The influence of microorganisms on mineral alteration is not easy to determine in environmental conditions, because of the difficulty to raise for comparison purposes an identical but abiotic system. Another problem in this context is the choice of reliable tracers to evaluate the alteration rate of materials during in vitro experiments. To face such difficulties, we elaborated a defined medium allowing both the growth of Pseudomonas aeruginosa and a precise measurement of the elements solubilized from the minerals. Thanks to this medium, we were able to quantitatively determine the amounts of major elements solubilized from the materials in the presence of bacterial growth, compared to a sterile system. Moreover, the analysis by ICP-MS of trace elements was possible after a chromatographic treatment, which selectively eliminated 99% of the sodium content of the medium. To cite this article: G. Aouad et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

BDS中长距离非差实时动态厘米级定位算法

针对BDS常规实时动态定位(RTK)中,随着流动站与参考站间的距离增加,大气延迟误差的空间相关性大大降低,影响了整周模糊度的快速解算和流动站位置信息的解算精度问题。该文研究了一种基于非差观测误差的BDS中长距离常规RTK定位算法,采用非差误差改正方法为流动站提供误差改正,利用参考站的非差误差改正数以单颗卫星为对象进行误差改正。对电离层延迟误差和相对天顶对流层延迟误差进行参数估计,处理电离层延迟误差和对流层延迟误差的影响。最后通过BDS实测数据对该算法进行了算法验证和结果分析。实验结果表明,该算法可以实现BDS中长距离常规RTK的快速定位,并获得厘米级定位精度。     

强壮前沟藻(Amphidinium carterae Hulbert)在多重逆境条件下的生长和生理响应

尽管单一逆境条件对浮游植物产生的影响已被广泛重视,然而对于多重逆境条件对藻细胞生长生理的研究仍有空白。本研究通过测定强壮前沟藻(Amphidinium carterae Hulbert)光密度(OD750)、叶绿素a含量(chl a)、光合作用效率(F_v/F_m)、碳氮比(C/N)等多个生理指标,分析其在9种环境下(常温光照、低温和低温黑暗三种物理环境,结合全营养、缺氮、缺磷三种营养状态)对多重逆境的生长和生理响应。研究结果表明,在多重逆境条件下,单一物理逆境因素(低温或黑暗)较氮限制或磷限制对藻细胞生长和生理的不利影响更为显著。营养限制并同低温环境双重作用对生物量和碳氮比产生显著性影响(P0.01)。此外,低温和黑暗条件耦合作用下,SYTOX Green染色强度处于较低水平,chl a稳定、F_v/F_m有所升高,强壮前沟藻在逆境环境下作为群体的衰亡得以缓解。