地铁施工中的监测技术与安全风险管理

作为地下工程,城市地铁建设安全隐患大,风险高。在地铁施工过程中,采取何种措施和手段,保障地铁项目自身及周边建筑环境的安全,是地铁建设的一项重要内容。本文通过介绍目前地铁施工中的监测技术,结合风险管理的有关理论,指出了目前地铁施工中的监测技术及安全风险管理的不足,并提出了相应的改进措施,为类似工程建设提供参考。     

Attitudes toward hydraulic fracturing: The opposing forces of political conservatism and basic knowledge about fracking

Hydraulic fracturing has become a contentious issue around the globe. In the present study, using a sample of American adults (n = 412), the role of political orientation (conservative vs. liberal) and basic knowledge about fracking on fracking risk perception attitudes, fracking economic attitudes, energy reliance attitudes, trust of energy information sources, and preferred dwelling distance from energy operations was investigated. Basic knowledge about hydraulic fracturing as a possible moderating mechanism was also explored. Correlational and regression results revealed that political ideology and basic fracking knowledge are key predictors of fracking and energy source attitudes, and that the nature of the relation between ideology and fracking risk perceptions, fracking economic attitudes, reliance on natural gas, wind and solar, and distrust of government agencies, are influenced by an individual’s basic knowledge about fracking.     

GIS-based risk analysis of debris flow： an application in Sichuan, southwest China

Debris flow is a serious geologic hazard in China. It is estimated that nationally debris flows cause up to 2 billion RMB （250 million US$） in damages and 300-600 deaths and injuries annually. To mitigate debris flow hazards, it is necessary to map, model, and identify zones of debris flow hazards and vulnerability as to inform the local people about the potential risk with a geographic information system. This research presents a regional scale case study modeling debris flow risk （hazard and vulnerability） in Sichuan Province, Southwestern China. In this area, 3,290 debris flows have been identified and the spatial-temporal distribution and activity characteristics of them have been documented. Based on the available meteorological data, a Digital Elevation Model with the rate of 1：250,000 and a regional geological map, the 24-hr rainfall threshold （y） for debris flow occurrence is closely related （significant at 99% confidence level） to the index （x） defined using a geology factor （rock hardness： a） and a topographical factor （channel gradient： d） where y = 21 ＋ 10200 / x, in which x = 2.7 × e^a ＋ 1000 × d. The discipline is constructive in developing the rainfall threshold for debris flow activity in remote mountainous areas that lack data. For a given watershed, a four-level debris flow hazard map is developed by comparing the rainfall threshold to the design rainfall intensities with 50-, 20-, and 5-year average recurrence intervals, respectively. The degree of debris flow vulnerability is determined by the watershed socio-economic conditions. A four-class debris flow risk map, at the final phase of the research, is generated by combining debris flow hazards and vulnerability. With the debris flow risk assessment, the Sichuan Province is classified into the slight, moderate, severe and very severe regions, which accounts for 36%, 19%, 20% and 25% of total area respectively.     

西溪国家湿地公园模式的实践与探索

作为首个国家湿地公园,杭州西溪国家湿地公园全力探索“西溪模式”,寻求科学保护与适度利用之间的平衡点,努力走出一条保护与利用的“双赢”之路。在建设西溪国家湿地公园的过程中,主要抓住“规划、保护、管理、研究”4个环节建设好西溪湿地天堂。坚持规划先行,构筑区域性人与自然和谐发展的规划体系;实施科学保护,调整并规划区内人类活动的强度与容量;注重精心管理,实现湿地生态环境、生态资源的科学保护和合理利用;做好深入研究,努力为湿地保护利用提供决策依据和理论指导。     

河北省棉花连阴雨灾害定量化评估指标与风险分析

利用河北省棉区1981—2015年40个气象站逐日气象资料、农业气象观测站棉花农情、连阴雨灾情、棉花产量资料,分析连阴雨过程特征及其对棉花生长的影响,修订和完善连阴雨灾害指标;采用数理统计方法获取历史连阴雨产量灾损率、筛选关键致灾因子,采用权重系数法构建连阴雨强度指数,并建立基于强度指数的灾损评估模型;利用有序样本聚类分析法划分连阴雨强度等级;依据风险分析原理,构建连阴雨风险指数并进行风险区划。结果表明：建立的强度指数能够客观反映连阴雨灾害强度,灾损评估模型评估效果较好。棉花播种出苗期连阴雨发生概率低（0.076）、造成的损失小（平均产量灾损率0.09%）;现蕾至吐絮期连阴雨影响较大,发生概率和造成的灾损率由大到小依次为花铃期（0.447,17.1%） > 现蕾期（0.394,11.7%） > 吐絮期（0.237,7.2%）。近年来,现蕾期连阴雨发生站次减少,对棉花影响减弱,花铃期和吐絮期发生站次增加,尤其是吐絮期增加明显,成为连阴雨灾害影响棉花生长的主要时期。现蕾期和花铃期连阴雨高风险区主要分布在非主棉区,其中现蕾期高风险区分布在保定北部及以北棉区,花铃期高风险区分布在保定北部及以北棉区和石家庄、邢台、邯郸三市西部棉区;吐絮期高风险区分布在保定西南部、衡水西部、石家庄及其以南棉区,部分地区为主棉区。     

奥布公路泥石流危险性评价

作为喀喇昆仑公路的重要组成部分,奥依塔克-布伦口(简称奥布)公路受到沿线数量众多且规模较大的泥石流影响,常导致行车中断,人员和车辆安全受到威胁。在现场地质考察和走访基础上,依据ArcGIS工具对奥布公路段的15条典型泥石流沟开展了重点调查和危险性评价。首先对汇流面积、纵坡度、面积宽度比、堆积区面积和距公路距离等5个评价因子属性进行归一化处理;然后采用两层结构的层次分析法计算得到影响因子的权重,随后将属性函数与权重乘积加和,得到灾害易发性指数(DFRD);最后对泥石流危险度(DRFR)进行计算分析和危险程度分级。结果发现,高-中度危险的11条泥石流主要分布在布伦口峡谷上游、盖孜检查站和加水沟之间,构成了泥石流灾害发育较为集中且危害性较大的路段。工程上相应采用隧道、高架桥等绕避措施,取得较好成效。     

TVA与澜沧江流域的综合开发与管理研究

本文首先概述了田纳西流域基本情况及其开发与管理机构（ＴＶＡ）的成立背景、发展历史和成就；分析了澜沧江流域与ＴＶＡ对比研究的基础，借鉴ＴＶＡ的经验，提出澜沧江流域综合开发与管理的思路、重要领域、矛盾协调等问题。     

Evaluating the impact of visualization of risk upon emergency route-planning

ABSTRACT

This paper reports on a controlled experiment evaluating how different cartographic representations of risk affect participants’ performance on a complex spatial decision task: route planning. The specific experimental scenario used is oriented towards emergency route-planning during flood response. The experiment compared six common abstract and metaphorical graphical symbolizations of risk. The results indicate a pattern of less-preferred graphical symbolizations associated with slower responses and lower-risk route choices. One mechanism that might explain these observed relationships would be that more complex and effortful maps promote closer attention paid by participants and lower levels of risk taking. Such user considerations have important implications for the design of maps and mapping interfaces for emergency planning and response. The data also highlights the importance of the ‘right decision, wrong outcome problem’ inherent in decision-making under uncertainty: in individual instances, more risky decisions do not always lead to worse outcomes.     

Classification of kangaroo habitat distribution using three GIS models

Abstract

In this paper, we compare three techniques for mapping wildlife habitat, termed BIOCLIM, CART and a new classification method based on nonparametric techniques. These techniques model dependent map layers of species distributions, where the areas to be mapped are large and the plot data is sparse. The techniques recognise pattern in the (independent) plot data, available to natural resource managers. In this case, the independent data set comprised 12 climate surfaces, that attempt to represent the range of temperature and precipitation important in determining the habitat of kangaroos across Australia. With this particular data set, the CART (decision tree) model was most accurate, but more time consuming to initialise. The relative performance of these models depends on the quality of the data set, and skill of the GIS analyst. Where possible, GIS analysts should implement all available methods, and compare output.     

黄土地区城镇地质灾害风险区划以华池县柔远镇为例

黄土高原是我国地质灾害最严重的地区之一,地质灾害频发,严重威胁着当地居民的人身、财产安全,阻碍城镇化建设步伐。基于GIS平台,以甘肃省华池县柔远镇为例,采用曲线拟合和均值变点法,研究发现大比例尺下提取黄土城镇地区平均起伏度的最佳单元大小为65 m65m,用层次分析法,选取灾害面密度、地层岩性、黄土层厚底、高程、坡度、坡向、起伏度、与沟谷距离、归一化植被指数、与道路距离、与建筑物距离等11个因子,建立黄土地区城镇危险性评价模型,依据土地覆盖类型进行易损性评估,利用栅格叠加工具得到风险区划,并划分出高风险、中风险、低风险、极低风险区域,分别占4.6%、11.7%、30.2%、53.5%,结果可为未来城镇化建设提供参考。