加强抗震设防管理做好市县防震减灾工作

介绍了临汾市防震减灾工作的基本情况,从政府支持、宣传到位、执法检查、培训人员、优质服务5个方面论述了临汾市抗震设防管理工作的主要做法,指出了目前管理工作中存在的问题,认为,加强抗震设防管理是做好市县防震减灾工作的重要内容。     

试论如何依法管理地震科技档案

对地震科技档案目前在收集、接收等常规管理中存在的问题和如何解决这些问题进行了详细论述。认为,只有实现了档案材料形成积累和收集整理过程的一体化,才可保障档案材料的齐全完整,实现依法管理。     

顶管施工中的风险分析

随着我国经济的发展和人们环保意识的增强，顶管施工作为一种非开挖施工方法得到广泛的应用，在城市建设中应用的领域也越来越宽。由于地下工程的不确定性，特别是在拥挤的城市，顶管施工常面临极大的风险。本文通过分析顶管施工项目风险因素及后果，给出了降低顶管施工风险的措施。     

成都规划管理中GIS技术的应用

本文结合成都市规划信息技术中心在信息化建设中的实践,阐述了GIS技术在规划管理中的重要作用,以成都市规划管理信息系统建设为例,介绍了GIS技术在成都市规划建设应用中取得的成就,并为进一步的发展提出了展望。     

为政府信息化建设设计一种简便的管理方法——持续评估

近年来公共财政的使用往往要接受审计机关的追踪问效。信息化建设通常投资规模较大,无疑成为审计的重点对象。但是,审计只是来自外部的事后监督,虽然发现了问题,许多损失却已既成事实。因此,信息化建设甚至有时被形容为吞噬投资的"黑洞"。应该说,为了有效地防范问题和损失,使用公共资金的机构亟需在内部建立及时的"成本-效果"反馈机制,提前进行自我审计。针对于此,本文借鉴目前国内外已有的一些绩效评估工具,根据政府信息化建设的特点,提出一种较为简单、可操作的持续评估方法。     

Clustering stochastic point process model for flood risk analysis

Since the introduction into flood risk analysis, the partial duration series method has gained increasing acceptance as an appealing alternative to the annual maximum series method. However, when the base flow is low, there is clustering in the flood peak or flow volume point process. In this case, the general stochastic point process model is not suitable to risk analysis. Therefore, two types of models for flood risk analysis are derived on the basis of clustering stochastic point process theory in this paper. The most remarkable characteristic of these models is that the flood risk is considered directly within the time domain. The acceptability of different models are also discussed with the combination of the flood peak counted process in twenty years at Yichang station on the Yangtze river. The result shows that the two kinds of models are suitable ones for flood risk analysis, which are more flexible compared with the traditional flood risk models derived on the basis of annual maximum series method or the general stochastic point process theory. Received: September 29, 1997     

一种利用贝叶斯最小判别准则估计未来地震危险的新方法

提出了一种基于最大似然和贝叶斯最小判别准则的新预测方法,它的长处在于对样本数无特殊要求,所以,对低地震活动地区,此模型也能得到与时间有关的稳定的未来强震危险估计。最后,以华北地区为例,说明了本方法的可行性。     

The role of social norms in climate adaptation: Mediating risk perception and flood insurance purchase

Flood insurance plays an important role in climate adaptation by recovering insured losses in the event of catastrophic flooding. Voluntary adoption of flood insurance has been seen as a function of risk perception that is shaped by social norms. This paper attempts to clarify the relationship between these factors. It is based on a household survey conducted in the eastern cities of Australia and involving a total of 501 randomly selected residents. Results of a path analysis show that the likelihood of having flood insurance cover was associated with perceived social norms, but not perceived flood risk. In addition, perceived norms and risk were statistically related to each other. It is concluded that social norms played a mediating role between insuring decision and risk perception. Risk perception might influence the insuring decision indirectly through shaping perception of social norms. This implies that adaptive behaviour is not necessarily a function of risk perception, but an outcome of its impacts upon the ways in which the individuals situate themselves in their social circles or the society. There is a feedback process in which individual perceptions of risk manifest as both a cause and effect, shaping and being shaped by the socio-cultural context.     

Gauging perceptions of ocean acidification in Alaska

While ocean acidification (OA) poses a significant threat to ocean-related ecosystems and communities reliant on marine fisheries, aquaculture, and coral reef systems, limited public understanding and awareness can prevent coastal regions from being able to adequately assess the need for OA adaptation or mitigation. This study assessed public understanding of OA and how social and demographic factors influence the public’s concern for OA. The analysis was based on 311 questionnaires from full-time Alaska residents. The results showed that most Alaskans self-reported to have a basic awareness of OA, and subsequently were able to recognize that CO₂ emissions related to human activity are the dominant driver of changing ocean conditions. However, there was a low recognition of how natural variability in the marine environment affects OA, and most respondents were not very confident in their understanding of OA-related science. Moreover, even though many communities in Alaska are reliant on commercial and subsistence fishing activities, the respondents had a low awareness of fisheries-related OA risk. Given the ongoing debate associated with climate change research, evaluating CO₂ mitigation efforts through the perspective of OA could give individuals an unbiased way to assess the pros and cons of more intensive efforts to curb CO₂ emissions. Furthermore, using OA communication to enhance the understanding of how natural variability influences OA around the state and the potential economic implications for Alaska fisheries would help residents and stakeholders make informed decisions when considering fisheries management plans, food security, and job diversity as OA intensifies. Solidifying the understanding that any reduction in pH and intensification of OA can have implications for marine species that are irreversible on human timescales will reinforce not only that OA is an immediate concern, but also the importance of taking action now.     

Selecting and assessing social objectives for Australian fisheries management

This paper details Australian research that developed tools to assist fisheries managers and government agencies in engaging with the social dimension of industry and community welfare in fisheries management. These tools are in the form of objectives and indicators. These highlight the social dimensions and the effects of management plans and policy implementation on fishing industries and associated communities, while also taking into account the primacy of ecological imperatives. The deployment of these objectives and indicators initially provides a benchmark and, over the life of a management plan, can subsequently be used to identify trends in effects on a variety of social and economic elements that may be objectives in the management of a fishery. It is acknowledged that the degree to which factors can be monitored will be dependent upon resources of management agencies, however these frameworks provide a method for effectively monitoring and measuring change in the social dimension of fisheries management.Essentially, the work discussed in this paper provides fisheries management with the means to both track and begin to understand the effects of government policy and management plans on the social dimension of the fishing industry and its associated communities. Such tools allow the consideration of these elements, within an evidence base, into policy arrangements, and consequently provide an invaluable contribution to the ability to address resilience and sustainability of fishing industries and associated communities.