基于GIS的通信资源信息管理平台

GIS与管理信息系统相结合是大型企业和部门开发信息系统软件,提高信息化程度的很好思路。本文介绍了某部基于GIS的通信资源信息管理平台软件的设计思路,主要功能实现方式,应用情况,并对存在不足提出了改进的设计。     

对地质灾害易发性危险性易损性和风险性的探讨

论述了地质灾害易发性、危险性、易损性和风险性的基本概念。易发性是对某一地区地质灾害发生难易程度的描述,反映物理地质现象;危险性是灾害规模和发生概率的函数,反映灾害的活动程度和破坏能力;易损性表明社会经济易损程度及人类社会应对灾害的能力;风险性是灾害自然属性和社会经济属性的结合统一体,表达为危险性和易损性的乘积。在此基础上阐述了其影响因素和计算方法。认为这种由浅入深、由表及里的思路可应用于地质灾害评价研究及风险管理当中,具有较好的发展前景。     

不同排放情景下鄂尔多斯沙漠化风险预估

气候变化可以对沙漠化的扩张和逆转产生影响,综合预估未来多气候情景下沙漠化风险是制定防沙治沙策略的基础依据。基于鄂尔多斯1981—2015年NDVI数据和气候数据,利用最小二乘法对各年NDVI值、年降水量和年积温构成的时间序列进行线性倾向估计,对每个像元的值进行线性回归模型拟合,获取了未来35 a不同气候情景下的NDVI预测值,并在IPCC提出的4种气候变化情景下预测沙漠化风险状况,结果表明:(1)鄂尔多斯未来35 a沙漠化风险呈西北高、东南低的特点;(2)从气候变化情景看,在RCP8.5情景下,鄂尔多斯未来35 a的沙漠化风险最大,RCP6.0情景下风险最小;(3)从未来不同时期看,除RCP4.5情景外,未来15 a鄂尔多斯沙漠化风险最大,未来25~35 a沙漠化风险相对较小。     

Harmonization of international risk assessment protocol

For over centuries developments in food production and new food safety management systems in most developed countries have been perceived by many to be efficient in the prevention of food-borne disease. Nevertheless a number of problems remain dominant, one of these being the high level of food-borne microbiological disease which seems, for some pathogens, to have increased over the last decades. The development of an interdisciplinary approach with direct interaction between surveillance and risk analysis systems is described as a potential basis for improved prevention of food-borne disease. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment is a relatively new scientific approach, able to link data from food within the entire food chain and the various data on human disease to provide a clear estimation of risk. Today food safety is one of the WHOs top eleven priorities; the Organization calls for more systematic and aggressive steps to be taken to reduce significantly the risk of microbiological food-borne diseases. Dealing with this challenge is one of the major challenges for the 21st century in regard to food safety, implying a significant re-direction of food microbiology efforts in many parts of the world.     

地震应急信息管理技术研究和指挥首长信息查询系统实现

从应急指挥的角度研究地震应急信息的分类和管理模式, 论述有效管理地震应急信息的关键技术; 同时, 借助GIS技术、 数据库技术和网络技术建成了地震应急信息管理的计算机应用系统国家防震减灾指挥中心首长信息查询系统。 文中详细介绍了首长信息查询系统实现的结构框架、 技术路线和主要功能, 该系统为我国“十五”期间开展的各区域抗震救灾指挥部技术系统的建设, 提供了一定的借鉴经验和示范作用。 该系统的WebGIS平台是ArcIMS, 数据库是Oracle, 空间数据库引擎是ArcSDE。     

六盘山断裂带的地震构造特征与强震危险背景

集成活动构造与震源机制解、重新定位小震分布、历史与现今地震、GPS速度场等资料,综合分析了六盘山断裂带的构造动力学条件与变形方式、横剖面构造、历史强震破裂背景、GPS形变以及现代地震活动性,进而探讨了该断裂带的强震危险背景.结果表明：NNW向六盘山断裂带的运动与变形主要缘于青藏地块东北缘的向东水平挤出受到相对稳定的华北地块西缘（鄂尔多斯地块）阻挡而聚集的水平挤压作用;此外,海原和陇县-宝鸡两条NW向走滑断裂带的左旋运动在右阶区的局部会聚作用,也由六盘山断裂带的变形与运动来承受与转换.横剖面上,六盘山断裂带表现为向东推覆的大型逆冲构造带,主滑脱带位于~25 km深处,之下很可能存在分隔青藏与华北地块的超壳-岩石圈型深断裂带.沿六盘山断裂带中-南段以及更靠南东的陇县-宝鸡断裂带存在总长为120~140 km、至少最近~1400年未发生M ≥ 6½强震破裂的地震空区.地震空区内的断裂,GPS形变显示已有显著应变积累,地震活动上出现为小震稀疏或空缺的部位,以及低b值区,反映那里的断面业已闭锁,并已有高应力积累.因此,六盘山断裂带中-南段和陇县-宝鸡断裂带应是未来可能发生强震/大地震的两个危险地段,潜在地震的最大矩震级估值分别为M_W=7.3±和7.2±.

     

Numerical approach to Cryptosporidium risk assessment using reliability method

A previously developed Cryptosporidium transport model is solved numerically to investigate the transport and interactions between Cryptosporidium, water and surface sediment and to estimate the risk of surface water contamination by Cryptosporidium. The primary objective of this study is to expand the work of Yeghiazarian (Ph.D. dissertation, Cornell University 2001)where the analytical solution of the Cryptosporidium transport model was obtained for a simple case of specific attachment of Cryptosporidium oocysts to fine soil particles wherein some parameters have zero values. However, some studies have shown several cases where these parameters are not zero. This necessitated further study to generate a solution to the complete Cryptosporidium transport model. Utilizing the finite difference method, the Cryptosporidium transport model is solved numerically for the general case of a system with any parameter values. Previously, first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM and SORM) were employed for risk assessment using analytical transport results (Yeghiazarian, Ph.D. dissertation, Cornell University, 2001), but in this work, FORM and SORM are applied to the numerical solution of the Cryptosporidium transport model to estimate the risk of Cryptosporidium contamination in surface water. The risk of surface water contamination is estimated by the probability that the Cryptosporidium concentration in surface water at a given time and location exceeds a safety threshold. The numerical solution is interfaced with the general-purpose reliability code, CALREL, to estimate the probability of failure on one hillslope. The sensitivity of system reliability to process parameters is reported.     

高性能集群计算系统的构建

高性能集群计算系统因其具有强大的运算能力、 较高的I/O性能、 高性能管理和较强的系统扩展能力而广受关注。 本文简要介绍了高性能计算的发展现状和高性能集群计算系统构成, 比较详细地描述了系统环境、 系统性能及集群管理与应用情况, 对高性能计算的新技术进行展望。 并以一个实例阐述了集群系统构建等内容。 该系统由192个计算节点、 4个I/O节点、 1个登录节点、 1个管理节点、 1个Windows集群服务节点、 1组盘阵、 1组计算与I/O网络和1组管理网络组成。 系统计算能力在2009年和2010年中国高性能计算机性能TOP100排行榜分别为第36位和第63位, 具有相当的竞争力, 能够在近几年内为地震科研提供有力支持。     

Intelligent ship traffic monitoring for oil spill prevention: risk based decision support building on AIS

The paper describes a model, which estimates the risk levels of individual crude oil tankers. The intended use of the model, which is ready for trial implementation at The Norwegian Coastal Administrations new Vard? VTS (Vessel Traffic Service) centre, is to facilitate the comparison of ships and to support a risk based decision on which ships to focus attention on. For a VTS operator, tasked with monitoring hundreds of ships, this is a valuable decision support tool. The model answers the question, "Which ships are likely to produce an oil spill accident, and how much is it likely to spill?".     

Is there a Human Health Hazard from Microcystins in the Drinking Water Supply?

Microcystins are cyclic heptapeptide toxins produced by a range of cyanobacterial genera. These cyanobacteria occur naturally in drinking water reservoirs subject to eutrophication, and in rivers and natural lakes. Because of the diversity of organisms, the toxins occur, from oligo‐mesotrophic lakes in North Temperate latitudes, to hypertrophic tropical ponds. The toxins are responsible for numerous cases of injury and death of domestic animals, and human poisoning from drinking water. The initial poisoning includes hepatic cell death. This leads to secondary effects from liver deficiency, including jaundice and photosensitisation. The toxic effects are largely due to inhibition of phosphatase enzymes, acting to regulate protein phosphorylation. The consequences include structural damage, apoptosis and, at lower concentrations, cell cycle effects and tumour promotion. As there is no clear evidence for direct carcinogenesis by microcystins, they are classed as non‐carcinogenic toxins in drinking water. Guideline Values for safe drinking water are derived from data for subchronic rodent toxicity, using the No Observed Adverse Effect Level (the highest dose giving no toxicity). To this dose are applied uncertainty factors, to calculate a Tolerable Daily Intake. On the basis of a standard bodyweight and water consumption the Guideline Value is determined for drinking water. For microcystin‐LR the WHO have set a provisional Guideline Value of 1 μg/L for drinking water.