Risk mitigation and the social cost of carbon

The social cost of carbon – i.e., the marginal present-value cost imposed by greenhouse gas emissions – is determined by a complex interaction between factual assumptions, modeling methods, and value judgments. Among the most crucial factors is society's willingness to tolerate potentially catastrophic environmental risks. To explore this issue, the present analysis employs a stochastic climate–economy model that accounts for uncertainties in baseline economic growth, baseline emissions, greenhouse gas mitigation costs, carbon cycling, climate sensitivity, and climate change damages. In this model, preferences are specified to reflect the high degree of risk aversion revealed by private investment decisions, signaled by the large observed gap between the average rates of return paid by safe and risky financial instruments. In contrast, most climate–economy models assume much lower risk aversion. Given high risk aversion, the analysis finds that investment in climate stabilization yields especially large net benefits by forestalling low-probability threats to long-run human well-being. Accordingly, the social cost of carbon attains the markedly high value of $25,700 per metric ton of carbon dioxide in a baseline scenario in which emissions are unregulated. This value falls to just $4 per ton as the stringency of control measures is successively increased. These results cast doubt on the idea that the social cost of carbon takes on a uniquely defined, objective value that is independent of policy decisions. This does not, however, rule out the use of carbon prices to achieve the benefits of climate stabilization using least-cost mitigation measures.     

Differentiating capacities as a means to sustainable climate change adaptation

There are two forms of capacity to adapt to global change: those associated with fundamental human development goals (generic capacity), and those necessary for managing and reducing specific climatic threats (specific). We argue that these two domains of capacity must be addressed explicitly, simultaneously and iteratively if climate change adaptation and sustainable development goals are to be attained. We propose a simple heuristic to understand the four main ways these two capacities interact, leading to more or less desirable outcomes. Drawing from three case studies of agricultural adaptation to climatic risk (Phoenix, AZ; Northeast Brazil; Chiapas, Mexico) we argue that the institutional context of adaptation can implicitly or explicitly undermine one form of capacity with repercussions for the development of the other. A better and more strategic balance of generic and specific capacities is needed if the promised synergies between sustainable development and adaptation are to be achieved.     

云南大关寿山水电站地质灾害危险性评估

在工程建设中,地质灾害的发生往往与工程周边复杂的地质环境条件密切相关,山地区域由于地质地形条件复杂,使得工程地质灾害发生的可能性和危险性大大增加.以云南大关寿山水电站为例,介绍了地质灾害评估工作的基本过程和特点,对一般水电站的地质灾害危险性评估工作具有一定的参考价值.     

论气候变暖背景下干旱和干旱灾害风险特征与管理策略简

The drought is a most severe natural disaster worldwide, which leads to great risk in human being. The drought disaster and risk have more prominent because of obvious climatic warming in the last hundred years. At present, the understanding of the internal laws of the occurrence of drought and drought risk is not comprehensive, and the recognition of the characteristics of the drought and drought risk under climatic warming is obscure. In this paper, we summarized systematically the domestic and overseas research progress of the drought and drought disaster risk, introduced the principle of the drought disaster transfer process and the essential features of drought disaster, analyzed synthetically the main characteristics and interactions among the key factors of the drought disaster risk, discussed the effect of climatic warming on drought and drought disaster risk, and probed into the basic requirement of drought disaster risk management. Above all, we provide the main protective measurements of the drought disaster and the main strategy of drought disaster risk management.     

浅谈设备管理信息系统开发项目风险管理

由于信息技术的快速发展和开发工具的日趋成熟,影响管理信息系统开发成功的瓶颈已不再是以技术为主的问题,而更多的是以人为主的风险管理问题。本文主要从风险识别与评估、风险应对与监控、风险回顾与改进这四个方面,阐述了北京市测绘设计研究院设备管理信息系统开发项目的风险管理经验,证实了准确识别和评估项目所面临的风险并进行有效应对和监控,是提高项目成功率的有效手段。     

一种大文件多版本遥感影像数据组织管理方法

近年来,遥感技术的飞速发展使得影像数据的使用也越来越广泛和深入,而影像分辨率的增加,使得数据量急剧增长,对数据的存储和管理提出了很高的要求。针对传统遥感影像数据组织存储的不足,本文提出了一种大文件金字塔数据存储结构,用来高效存储管理影像数据;同时针对多时相遥感影像数据,提出了基于版本机制的影像数据管理模式。实验表明这种方法具有更高的存储检索效率。     

基于全景真三维斜射影像的数字城管应用研究

随着国家智慧城市试点工作如火如荼的开展,数字城管作为智慧城市业务应用体系的重要组成部分,正成为各地探索创新应用的重要领域。洛阳市数字城管率先采用先进的全景真三维斜射影像技术,实现了快速的城市部件数据普查,创造了全新的用户体验,满足了专业化的城市管理应用需求,创新了＂全景化＂的数字城管应用新模式。     

挪威的油气资源管理与投资环境

挪威是世界上重要的石油生产国和出口国,对世界石油市场供需稳定有重要影响。本文在项目工作基础上,简要讨论了挪威油气资源管理与投资环境,包括油气资源潜力与油气工业概况、油气管理体制与框架、主要管理机构、主要油气法律、油气权设置、主要油气管理政策、油气税制等。     

世界各国草地资源管理体制及其对我国的启示

草地在世界各大洲均有分布,世界各国对草地资源的管理有着不同的体制与策略.本文梳理了各大洲主要国家的草地资源管理体制,分析了草地资源管理历史进程与趋势,总结了各国草地资源管理的优势和可资借鉴之处.结合我国草地资源管理中存在的问题,建议我国要在国家层面重视草地资源的管理,建立专门行政部门管理全国60忆亩草地,建立健全现有的草地资源管理体制,同时建立草原质量的监测数据网络,并加强对草地利用的监管力度.     

浅析新型城镇化的土地支撑

新型城镇化要以人为本,是推进以人为核心的城镇化,提高城镇人口素质和居民生活质量,要把促进有能力在城镇稳定就业和生活的常住人口有序实现市民化作为首要任务。新型城镇化需要土地支撑,要解决人地失调的突出问题,要把实现人地和谐作为主要目标,坚持耕地保护与节约集约用地的基本国策,发挥规划的龙头作用和计划的管控作用,有序推进土地制度改革。