High resolution time series of lead and zinc in sediments of Lake Constance

Sediments in Lake Constance have been dated by radiometric methods and lamination counting. Investigations into the concentrations of lead and zinc in the sediments were carried out to get detailed information about environmental history. Maximum concentrations were found at the beginning of the 1960's. The lead maximum contamination occurred 3 years before the zinc maximum and has an unidentified source. The use of coal, leaded gasoline or the remobilization within the sediment could be excluded to result in the lead maximum. The fluctuations in zinc contamination could be explained with increasing and decreasing pollution (industry, coal burning, building of sewage plants). The greatest fluctuations of both metals occur during periods of great change in the economic history of Germany.     

EUTROPHICATION AND RED TIDES AS CONSEQUENCES OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

1 mTRoorcnoxThe EnvirDment AgenCy of UK (l997) defins eUtIDPhication as "the enrichInnt of waters byinorgedc plant nUtrientS that result in the simulation of an mp Of syInPtOInati changes. These includethe inCrased PrOduCtiOn Of aigae or othe aquatic PlantS, affeChng the quallty of the water and distUIbingthe balance Of orpedsms Present within it. Such changes Inay be undesirable and intetw with wateuses." Sndth et al. (l999) indicated tha eopation of waters is mainly caused by h…     

90年代中国省级区域经济与环境协调度分析

在阐述经济环境协调度理论的基础上,建立了环境承载力与经济发展水平之间的协调度模型。并通过对90年代我国省级区域的实证分析,发现我国空间区域经济环境协调度基本符合“U”型曲线,区域经济发展模式大多以牺牲环境为代价,特别是中西部地区的问题比较严重。     

地震定位研究及应用综述

地震定位是地震学中最经典、最基本的问题之一，提高定位精度也一直是地震学应用研究的重要课题之一。本文就目前各种地震定位方法进行了大体分类并概述了基本原理及其应用，介绍了目前在国内各实时地震观测系统中应用的台网定位方法，同时将部分台网方法应用于黑龙江省绥棱爆破的定位。     

Verifying warnings for point precipitation

Short-term risk forecasts of point precipitation are obtained with COTREC/RainCast, a technique for extrapolation of radar images. The risk forecasts are updated every 5 min for the next 0–2 h. Risk levels are defined for moderate, heavy and extreme precipitation. Warning messages are generated if, at the locations of 23 rain gauges, these risk levels are reached or exceeded. The time-resolved gauge data are used to judge if the warning messages are in time, early or late.Data over a period of 4 months (summer 2002) are used for verification. The largest number of warnings (1790) was obtained for moderate precipitation. About 55% of these warnings were in time, 23% were early and 22% were late. This finding is in a good agreement with the defined risk level for warnings (50%), indicating that the model for calculating the risk factors is reliable. Less warnings in time, and more late warnings were found for heavy and extreme precipitation. Hence, the risk levels need to be lowered for heavy and extreme precipitation, in order to reduce the number of late warnings.     

伴生金赋存状态的几种主要研究方法

作者总结了在多年研究伴生金赋存状态中常采用的光学显微镜法、电子探针分析法、元素的化学分析法、选择性溶解法及元素平衡配分法等几种有效的研究方法,并给出一些应用的例子.通过这些研究方法,能够有效、快捷地查清伴生金的赋存状态特征及分布规律,为今后的研究提供可借鉴的经验.     

东天山戈壁荒漠景观区地球化学勘查中某些工作方法的研究

通过东天山地区地球化学勘查中某些方法的试验,研究了一套适宜于戈壁荒漠景观中地球化学勘查的工作方法.（1）查明了盛行风对岩屑异常特征的影响程度;（2）推荐消除风成沙影响的合理采样粒级;（3）利用水溶态铜、金异常指示被运积物掩盖的铜、金矿体;（4）明确了荒漠区盐磐层不会阻碍在残积物覆盖区发现矿致岩屑异常和在运积物覆盖区发现后生晕.     

Identifying volcanic regimes using Hidden Markov Models

We examine the application of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to volcanic occurrences. The parameters in HMMs can be estimated from data by means of the Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm. Various formulations permit modelling the activity level of a volcano through onset counts, the intensity of a Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP), or through the intervals between onsets. More elaborate models allow investigation of the relationship between durations and reposes. After fitting the model, the Viterbi algorithm can be used to identify the underlying (hidden) activity level of the volcano most consistent with the observations. The HMM readily provides forecasts of the next event, and is easily simulated. Data of flank eruptions 1600–2006 from Mount Etna are used to illustrate the methodology. We find that the volcano has longish periods of Poissonian behaviour, interspersed with less random periods, and that changes in regime may be more frequent than have previously been identified statistically. The flank eruptions of Mount Etna appear to have a complex time-predictable character, which is compatible with transitions between an open and closed conduit system. The relationship between reposes and durations appears to characterize the cyclic nature of the volcanoes activity.