预测华北地区年度地震趋势的支持向量机分类方法

以太阳黑子数、地球自转速率变化数据和全球7级以上地震应变释放量作为预测因子,使用支持向量机分类方法建模预测中国华北地区年度地震强度,预测准确率为0.93,表明该方法具有较好的预测效果.     

Archean (about 2500 Ma) anatexis in eastern North China Block

Two Neoarchean alkaline feldspar-rich granites sourced from partially melted granulite-facies granodioritic orthogneiss have been here recognised in the eastern part of the North China Block (NCB). These poorly foliated granites have previously been assumed to be Mesozoic in age and never dated, and so their significance has not been recognised until now. The first granite (AG1) is a porphyritic syenogranite with megacrystic K-feldspar, and the second (AG2) is a quartz syenite with perthitic megacryst. Zircons from the granites yield LA-ICP-MS U-Pb ages of 2499 ± 10 Ma (AG1), and 2492 ± 28 Ma (AG2), which are slightly younger than the granodioritic orthogneiss that they intrude with a crystallisation U-Pb age of 2537 ± 34 Ma. The younger granites have higher assays for SiO₂ (71.91% for AG1 and 73.22% for AG2) and K₂O (7.52% for AG1 and 8.37% for AG2), and much lower assays for their other major element than the granodioritic orthogneiss. All of the granodioritic orthogneiss and granite samples have similar trace element patterns, with depletion in Th, U, Nb, and Ti and enrichment in Rb, Ba, K, La, Ce, and P. This indicates that the granites are derived from the orthogneiss as partial melts. Although they exhibit a similar REE pattern, the granites have much lower total REE contents (30.97×10⁻⁶ for AG1, and 25.93×10⁻⁶ for AG2), but pronounced positive Eu anomalies (Eu/Eu* = 8.57 for AG1 and 27.04 for AG2). The granodioritic orthogneiss has an initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio of 0.70144, εNd(t) value of 3.5, and εHf(t) values ranging from −3.2 to +2.9. The orthogneiss is a product of fractional crystallisation from a dioritic magma, which was derived from a mantle source contaminated by melts derived from a felsic slab. By contrast, the AG1 sample has an initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio of 0.6926 that is considered too low in value, εNd(t) value of 0.3, and εHf(t) values between +0.57 and +3.82; whereas the AG2 sample has an initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio of 0.70152, εNd(t) value of 1.3, and εHf(t) values between +0.5 and +14.08. These assays indicate that a Sr-Nd-Hf isotopic disequilibrium exists between the granite and granodioritic orthogneiss. The elevated εHf(t) values of the granites can be explained by the involvement of Hf-bearing minerals, such as orthopyroxene, amphibole, and biotite, in anatectic reactions in the granodioritic orthogneiss. Based on the transitional relationship between the granites and granodioritic orthogneiss and the geochemical characteristics mentioned above, it is concluded that the granites are the product of rapid partial-melting of the granodioritic orthogneiss after granulite-facies metamorphism, and their crystallisation age of about 2500 Ma provides the minimum age of the metamorphism. This about 2500 Ma tectonic-metamorphic event in NCB is similar to the other cratons in India, Antarctica, northern and southern Australia, indicating a possible connection between these cratons during the Neoarchean.     

青海省那陵郭勒河中游晚三叠世侵入岩地球化学特征及地质意义

那陵郭勒河中游位于东昆仑西段祁漫塔格地区,分布着大量的花岗岩.对该地区晚三叠世侵入岩的研究有助于认识东昆仑造山带印支期构造-岩浆演化历史.对研究区内花岗岩进行了岩石学、年代学及岩石地球化学分析.分析结果表明,研究区花岗闪长岩和二长花岗斑岩锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb年龄分别为(225.7士1)Ma、(213.74±...     

Extensive Cold-Precipitation-Freezing Events in Southern China and Their Circulation Characteristics

Concurrence of low temperature,precipitation and freezing weather in an extensive area would cause devastating impacts on local economy and society.We call such a combination of concurrent disastrous weather“extensive coldprecipitation-freezing”events(ECPFEs).In this study,the ECPFEs in southern China(15°?35°N,102°?123°E)are objectively defined by using daily surface observational data for the period 1951?2013.An ECPFE in southern China is defined if the low temperature area,precipitation area and freezing area concurrently exceed their respective thresholds for at least three consecutive days.The identified ECPFEs are shown to be reasonable and reliable,compared with those in previous studies.The circulation anomalies in ECPFEs are characterized by a large-scale tilted ridge and trough pairing over mid-and high-latitude Eurasia,and the intensified subtropical westerlies along the southern foot of the Tibetan Plateau and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the subtropical western Pacific.Comparative analysis reveals that the stable cold air from the north and the warm and moist air from the south converge,facilitating a favorable environment for the concurrence of extensive low-temperature,precipitation and freezing weather.     

沙尘气溶胶对西北地区植被遥感的影响分析

选取扬沙—浮尘天气发生中、后的对地观测卫星EOS-MODIS数据,利用6S辐射传输模式对该卫星资料进行大气订正,分析了沙尘气溶胶对沙尘多发区的西北地区植被指数(VI)遥感的影响。结果表明,与晴空天气得到的反射率相比,沙尘使红光通道反射率ρ1、近红外通道反射率ρ2和蓝光通道反射率ρ3均增加,归一化植被指数NDVI有不同程度的降低,降低最大值为0.246。抗大气植被指数ARVI也有所降低,降低最大值为0.231。应用晴空天气条件下的资料,建立了西北干旱区ARVI与NDVI之间的线性关系,并证明了在沙尘天气条件下,利用ARVI计算NDVI的方法,所得的结果较好。     

我国东南象限冬、春季雨带的相关分析

通过对我国东南象限冬、春季雨带的相关分析,发现当冬、春季之间地气形势稳定时,约有68%的春雨带位于冬雨带南方50~300 km的范围内,此统计结果可作为预报春雨的指标;当冬季地气形势出现“双跳型”时,冬、春季之间的雨带可相距500 km以上,此时冬、春季的地震时空变化有可能作为春雨位置的预报指标。     

东北冷涡云系人工增雨作业效果的检验和分析

根据辽宁地区的东北冷涡降水天气过程的规律和特点,利用气象台站网的常规观测资料,用事后划分影响区和对比区的移动分区区域回归方法,对东北冷涡降水云系的人工增雨作业效果进行了综合分析。结果表明:(1)辽宁省1992—2004年6~8月对东北冷涡云系人工增雨作业的平均增雨效果为22.44%。(2)有95%以上的可信度证明辽宁省的人工增雨有正效果。(3)物理检验分析证明,作业方法及催化部位基本是合理的,催化作业是有效的。     

华北地区夏季平均水汽输送通量和轨迹的分析

利用NOAA HYSPLIT_4水汽轨迹模型及1948—2003年NCAR/NCEP再分析资料,分析了华北地区夏季的平均水汽输送通量和轨迹。结果表明,华北夏季水汽轨迹有明显的年代际变化特征。1950—1970年代,华北地区850 hPa上的水汽主要是从南方输送来的,从1970年代开始水汽输送方向变以偏西为主,1980年代至今则以西北为主。另外,华北地区在1960—1964年垂直积分的水汽输送通量存在最大值,1965年以后水汽输送通量值开始变小,1977年后水汽输送通量值较小且保持稳定。水汽输送通量和水汽输送轨迹的变化主要和东亚夏季风的逐渐减弱有关。华北地区1950—2000年代夏季(6~8月)逐月水汽输送轨迹变化特征明显。     

东北地区汛期降水异常的大气环流特征分析

针对东北地区汛期(7~8月)的情况,分析了造成汛期降水异常的大气环流特征,结果表明:汛期多(少)雨年,低层850 hPa蒙古东南的气旋(反气旋)式距平环流、我国大陆东部的西南风(东北风)距平气流及日本南面的反气旋(气旋)式距平环流的共同作用加强(减弱)了低层西南暖湿气流在东北地区的辐合;多(少)雨年,中层500 hPa中高纬西风带经向运动加强(减弱),从贝加尔湖以北的高纬地区到日本附近的高度场呈 - (- -)的波列分布。8月的环流形势比7月更容易造成严重旱涝,下游鄂霍茨克海和日本海阻塞高压的发展和减弱是造成8月降水异常的重要因子。考虑7月旱涝流型演变时,应着重关注南北向 - 的“波列”;而考虑8月旱涝流型演变时,则更应着重关注东西向- - -的“波列”配置。多、少雨年,高、低层的散度场、垂直速度场及水汽条件等物理量场都有明显的差异。     

澳大利亚植被覆盖对亚澳季风影响的数值模拟(Ⅱ): 对东亚夏季风环流的影响

在文献[1]的基础上,对澳大利亚大陆植被覆盖变化对北半球夏季越赤道气流和东亚季风环流季节变化的影响进行了研究.结果表明,植被覆盖变化对东亚季风建立前后南风越赤道气流建立时间、强弱和南半球主要环流系统都有显著的影响.绿化导致了索马里越赤道气流的建立提前,增强了不同时期南风越赤道气流的强度,但对90°E以东来自澳大利亚高压的几支越赤道气流影响不大.同时,绿化促使南半球澳大利亚高压和马斯克林高压提前建立,西太平洋副热带高压北进提前,且强度减弱,导致西南气流更容易深入东亚内陆和西太平洋.这些影响促使盛夏期西南亚季风的影响区域和强度都有所扩展,对东南季风则影响不大.沙漠化则使索马里气流略微减弱,西太平洋副热带高压在春夏季节则一直偏强,至7月中旬,才有明显东撤,阻碍了越赤道气流的北上,西南季风在此影响下强度和影响范围均有所缩减.