Mixture models and atypical values

The resolution of a mixture of two or more populations into its component distributions may be markedly influenced by one or a few atypical values. The maximum likelihood solution effectively assigns (part of) each observation to one or another of the components via the posterior probabilities, even though the observation may be widely discrepant from all components. This paper presents a modification of the mixture problem, in which the typicality of each observation is considered, as well as the posterior probabilities, with the contribution of atypical observations being downweighted. The extension to the multivariate case is discussed.     

铁矿床中黑柱石富集特例剖析

黑柱石是一种少见的含钙铁硅酸盐矿物。通过富含黑柱石的青海省双庆铁矿区与仅含少量黑柱石的福建省马坑铁矿区矿床地质特征的对比,认为矿床中黑柱石的产生与中基性火成岩的参与有关;黑柱石的解体与硼的参与有关。     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Marine Resources of Kuwait: Their Role in the Development of Non-oil Resources . Fatimah H. Y. al -Abdul -Razzak Recollections of a Revolution: Geography as Spatial Science . Mark Billinge , Derek Gregory and Ron Martin Entre l'Eden et l'Utopie . Luc Bureau Developments in Political Geography . M. A. Busteed The Elements of Graphing Data . William S. Cleveland Rural Resource Management . Paul J. Cloke and Chris C. Park Third World Atlas . Ben Crow and Alan Thomas Exploitation, Conservation, Preservation: A Geographic Perspective on Natural Resource Use . Susan L. Cutter , Hilary Lambert Renwick, and William H. Renwick . Wine Regions of the Southern Hemisphere . Harm Jan de Blij Regional Development: Problems and Policies in Eastern and Western Europe . George Demko The Geographer at Work . Peter R. Gould Change in the Amazon Basin . John Hemming Geography Since the Second World War . R. J. Johnston and P. Claval Urbanization in China: Town and Countryside in a Developing Economy 1949–2000 A.D. , R. J. R. Kirkby Transport and Communications for Pacific Microstates: Issues in Organisation and Management . Christopher C. Kissling Fluvial Forms and Processes . David Knighton The Urban Millennium . Josef W. Konvitz Technological Transition in Cartography . Mark Stephen Monmonier Field Guide to Soils and the Environment: Applications of Soil Surveys . Gerald W. Olson Northern Australia: The Arenas of Life and Ecosystems on Half a Continent . Don Parkes A Killing Rain: The Global Threat of Acid Rain . Thomas Pawlick From the Family Farm to Agribusiness: The Irrigation Crusade in California and the West, 1850–1931 . Donald J. Pisani Hybrid Maize Diffusion in Kenya . Franz -Michael Rundquist Warning and Response to the Mount St. Helens Eruption . Thomas F. Saarinen and James L. Sell Coastal Geomorphology in Australia . B. G. Thom Tropical Rain Forests of the Far East , 2nd ed . T. C. Whitmore The Dark Side of the Earth . Robert Muir Wood Categorical Data Analysis for Geographers and Environmental Scientists , Neil Wrigley     

Aftershock Statistics

The statistical properties of aftershock sequences are associated with three empirical scaling relations: (1) Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude scaling, (2) Båths law for the magnitude of the largest aftershock, and (3) the modified Omoris law for the temporal decay of aftershocks. In this paper these three laws are combined to give a relation for the aftershock decay rate that depends on only a few parameters. This result is used to study the temporal properties of aftershock sequences of several large California earthquakes. A review of different mechanisms and models of aftershocks are also given. The scale invariance of the process of stress transfer caused by a main shock and the heterogeneous medium in which aftershocks occur are responsible for the occurrence of scaling laws. We suggest that the observed partitioning of energy could play a crucial role in explaining the physical origin of Båths law. We also study the stress relaxation process in a simple model of damage mechanics and find that the rate of energy release in this model is identical to the rate of aftershock occurrence described by the modified Omoris law.     

Factors affecting site response to multi-directional earthquake loading

This paper presents an investigation into various factors that may affect the ground response to multi-directional earthquake loading, focusing mainly on the behavior of vertical ground motion and its relation with the horizontal counterpart. The factors investigated herein include the intensity of input motion and the associated soil nonlinearity, the location of input motion (rock outcrop versus bedrock), the variation of water table, and the damping property of soil. Influence of these factors is studied on the characteristics of site amplification in both vertical and horizontal directions, the response spectra of vertical and horizontal ground surface motions, the spectral ratio between the two components (V/H) at the ground surface, and the distributions of stresses and strains in the ground. One of the main results is that varying water table can bring about a significant impact on vertical motion and the relationship between vertical and horizontal motions. The surface response spectral ratio (V/H) can largely exceed the rule-of-thumb value of 2/3 at low periods with lowering the water table, but does not appear to be substantially affected at long periods.     

案例推理的制图综合应用背景与方法

从挖掘和利用经验数据的角度出发,提出了基于案例推理的智能化制图综合方法。首先探讨了基于算法和模型的自动综合实现方式所面临的瓶颈,并提出了采用制图综合案例推理辅助制图综合的思想;然后设计了制图综合专家案例的三元表示方法,以及获取、使用和管理流程;最后对实现该基于案例推理的智能化制图综合方法的五个关键性步骤进行了分析,并深入阐述该方法的原理和可行性,提出了基于案例推理的智能综合辅助系统架构。     

台湾地震与大陆旱涝

利用近80年台湾、大陆和环西太平洋的地震资料,简要分析了地震场与我国东部旱涝分布的关系。台湾强震加上华北或蒙古两年内亦有强震是江淮干旱、华北涝的条件；单有台湾强震是江南旱的前兆；台湾弱震年的第一年加上长江中下游有4.5级以上地震发生是长江大涝的条件。对此统计结果从岩石圈与大气圈相互热交换的观点,提出了一个初步解释。     

数字地形分析应用适配性知识的案例表达与推理方法

数字地形分析(Digital Terrain Analysis, DTA)在应用时依赖于建模知识,尤其是关于所建的应用模型是否与研究区特点、数据等条件相适配的知识(称为“应用适配性知识”);由于这类知识难以形式化表达,现有的数字地形分析工具对此类知识缺乏利用,从而导致普通用户在应用数字地形分析时建模困难。针对该问题,设计了一套数字地形分析领域应用适配性知识的案例表达与相应的推理方法。以美国32个河网提取案例为例,通过交叉验证,初步表明案例及其推理应用方法适合于数字地形分析领域应用适配性知识的形式化表达与应用,该方法通过与建模环境的集成,可大幅降低数字地形分析应用建模难度。     

A rational method for development of limit state for liquefaction evaluation based on shear wave velocity measurements

This papers presents a new approach for developing a limit state for liquefaction evaluation based on field performance data. As an example to illustrate the new approach, a database that consists of, among many other features, in situ shear wave velocity measurements and field observations of liquefaction/non‐liquefaction in historic earthquakes is analysed. This database is first used to train a neural network to classify liquefaction/non‐liquefaction based on soil resistance parameters and load parameters. The successfully trained and tested neural network is then used to establish a limit state, a multiple dimension boundary that separates ‘zone’ of liquefaction from ‘zone’ of non‐liquefaction. The limit state yields cyclic resistance ratio for a given set of soil resistance parameters. Examination of all cases in the database show that the developed limit state has a high degree of accuracy in predicting the occurrence of liquefaction/non‐liquefaction. The developed neural network model can accurately predict the cyclic resistance ratio of soils. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Business case for mussel aquaculture in offshore wind farms in the North Sea

The European Blue Growth strategy aims to expand the new maritime sectors of aquaculture, energy, biotechnology, coastal tourism and mineral mining. Growth of these sectors will increases pressure on the seas, particularly on those areas that are densely used by traditional sectors such as fisheries and transport. This has triggered interest in developing multiuse of space and multiuse platforms at sea. This paper assesses the feasibility of offshore mussel production project in wind farms by design and ex-ante evaluation of a mussel aquaculture system in the North Sea. A system for mussel cultivation in the Dutch Borssele offshore wind farm was designed, producing both mussel seed and consumption-sized mussels with semi-submerged longlines. Based on the economic model and the risk assessment, this paper concludes that mussel aquaculture is an appealing commercial model for increased returns in offshore wind farms. The economic models shows that the internal rate of return and net present value are positive and based on the sensitivity analysis, it can be concluded that these results are robust.