汶川8．0级地震序列时空分布研究

基于四川防震减灾信息网以及中国地震台网中心、中国地震信息网、国家地震科学数据共享中心提供的汶川8．0级地震目录资料,对2008年S月12日至2010年3月1日共1613次3．0级及以上余震的地震序列进行了时空分布分析。结果表明：汶川8．0级地震的余震大致可分为7个阶段,主震后18天应列为大地震强余震发生的警戒时间;地震序列的b值为0．751,印证了在类型相同的情况下主震震级越大b值越高的观点;地震序列的P值为1．117,与全球地震衰减速率相当;汶川地震的余震分布主要沿龙门山断裂走向北东向扩展,且具有明显分区性,自南向北分为南、中、北3区段,南区为地震起始破裂段,地震后期余震则主要分布在北区;震源深度分布在10～40km,集中在10～20km,表明龙门山断裂主要发生在中上地壳,且震源深度由南向北呈现逐渐变浅的趋势;震源深度扩展,南区呈明显脉冲状,中区主要是依次由15、30、25km深度向深、浅层同时扩展,北区余震深度分布呈“乙”字型,最后稳定在15km左右。     

四川省青川县碾子村清岭沟泥石流特征及防灾对策

清岭沟位于四川省青川县碾子村五社,该区工程地质条件复杂。＂5.12＂地震后沟内出现大量崩塌落石和松散堆积物,为泥石流的爆发提供了充足的物源,2008年8月清岭沟地区发生连续强降雨,8月25日清岭沟爆发了泥石流。目前沟源及沟道两侧发育一处规模较大的潜在不稳定斜坡、三处规模较大的危岩体、一处形成于＂5.12＂地震期间的崩塌堆积物,一旦遭遇暴雨等不良地质作用这些潜在物源极易失稳,成为清岭沟泥石流的物源,使清岭沟再次发生泥石流灾害,威胁清岭沟下游村落及公路。通过野外对清岭沟进行地质调查、室内试验和动力学特征分析提出了UX—150型泥石流栅栏、拦砂坝、排导槽和桥涵改造的综合治理措施。     

汶川地震后四川省都江堰市龙池镇群发泥石流灾害

在2008 -05 - 12汶川地震后的极震区暴发了多处群发性泥石流灾害,龙溪河流域的龙池“8·13”群发泥石流灾害就是其中之一.龙溪河流域在2010 -08 -13遭遇强降雨过程,流域内共有45处暴发泥石流,其中34处沟谷泥石流,11处坡面泥石流,泥石流冲出总量共334×104m3,造成大量泥沙淤积在龙溪河下游河道内,该段河床平均淤高5 m.诱发“8·13”群发泥石流的最大1h降雨量达75 mm,相当于20 a一遇的1h降雨量.“8·13”群发泥石流中88.9％的泥石流活动集中在汶川地震发震断裂带附近3 km范围内,仅有11.1％的泥石流分布在距汶川地震发震断裂带3～5 km范围.除受汶川地震发震断裂带影响外,泥石流分布还受地层岩性和地形的影响.龙池群发泥石流以粘性泥石流为主,占总数的88.9％,而稀性泥石流很少,仅占总数的11.1％.小规模泥石流占多数,达到总数的60.0％;大规模泥石流很少,仅占总数的11.1％,其他为中等规模泥石流.泥石流流域主要为小流域,＜1 km2的泥石流流域占多数,达到总数的68.9％;而＞3 km2的泥石流流域很少,仅占总数的6.7％.龙溪河河道内的泥沙淤积受泥石流活动、主河道坡度和宽度的控制,河道上半段没有泥沙淤积,而下半段有大量泥沙淤积.龙溪河河道内淤积的泥沙颗粒粒径受沿岸泥石流流域岩性的影响,粒径从龙溪河上游到下游呈明显的从大到小的变化规律.龙溪河流域在遭遇较强降雨时还会暴发泥石流灾害;在汶川地震发震断裂带附近的山区,在暴雨激发下还有可能暴发群发性泥石流灾害.在雨季到来时需要提高警惕,预防地震次生泥石流灾害,特别要提防不易被发现的小流域泥石流灾害,做好防灾预案和预警报工作,最大程度地减轻泥石流灾害.     

汶川地震灾后重建地区的人口容量分析

Assessment of population carrying capacity is a key task in the reconstruction planning of areas struck by disasters, in which the precision of estimation is required. This study developed a decision-making model for estimating the population capacity of the involved townships and cities in the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake based on the assessment of the suitability for reconstruction of the areas. Through analysis, arable land resources were argued to be the critical constraint of population capacity in these areas. Then, the spatial differentiations of the post-quake development conditions across different regions were analyzed with respect to their natural environments, socio-economic development and quake damages. The expected levels of urbanization, family incomes and income structures, output levels of land, and the reliance of agricultural population on arable land were estimated by different regions. With these parameters, the population capacities of the involved townships and cities in three scenarios were estimated. The total population capacity of the entire areas is abundant compared with the actual post-quake population; however, the status of over-population substantially varies across space. It was suggested to put the emphasis of post-quake resettlement policy on those counties where earthquake had been the main causes of over-population. In the Full Recovery Scenario, three mountain counties were identified including Wenchuan, Beichuan and Maoxian, with a total over-population of about 100,000 people.     

Spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters in the Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya and adjacent regions: Implication for future seismic hazard

The study deals spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters like annual and 100-years mode along with their 90% probability of not being exceeded (NBE) in the Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya and adjoining regions. For this purpose, we applied a straightforward and most robust method known as Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution of extreme values (GIII). A homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue during the period 1900–2010 with magnitude M_W ⩾ 4.0 is utilized to estimate these earthquake hazard parameters. An equal grid point mesh, of 1° longitude X 1° latitude, is chosen to produce detailed earthquake hazard maps. This performance allows analysis of the localized seismicity parameters and representation of their regional variations as contour maps. The estimated result of annual mode with 90% probability of NBE is expected to exceed the values of M_W 6.0 in the Sulaiman–Kirthar ranges of Pakistan and northwestern part of the Nepal and surroundings in the examined region. The 100-years mode with 90% probability of NBE is expected to exceed the value of M_W 8.0 in the Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya with Caucasus mountain belt, the Sulaiman–Kirthar ranges of Pakistan, northwestern part of the Nepal and surroundings, the Kangra–Himanchal Pradesh and Kashmir of India. The estimated high values of earthquake hazard parameters are mostly correlated with the main tectonic regimes of the examined region. The spatial variations of earthquake hazard parameters reveal that the examined region exhibits more complexity and has high crustal heterogeneity. The spatial maps provide a brief atlas of the earthquake hazard in the region.     

南北地震带强震迁移特征及其预测意义

在分析南北构造带构造体系的基础上，研究了该带强震的时空动态图象演化，结果表明，南北带的地震活动有如下特征：（１）经向迁移，其空间演化有步进型和步进折返型两种形态；（２）远程的快速响应；（３）诱发地震的链锁分布，该特征反映了强震间的相互耦合，对未来强震具有示踪意义，（４）时空可公度性，该结果对分析判定本带的地震趋势从而实现正确的预测具有实际意义。     

Assessment of liquefaction potential based on peak ground motion parameters

Conventionally, evaluation of liquefaction potential of loose saturated cohesionless deposits as specified in Japanese design codes employs peak ground acceleration (PGA). However, recent large-scale earthquakes in Japan revealed that liquefaction at some sites did not occur even though large PGAs were recorded at or near these sites. As an alternative approach, an evaluation procedure based on peak ground motion parameters, i.e. incorporating both PGA and the peak ground velocity (PGV), is proposed. By performing parametric studies using one-dimensional seismic response analysis and formulating regression models, seismic-induced shear stresses within the deposit are expressed in terms of peak ground motion parameters at the surface, and these are used to calculate the factor of safety against liquefaction. Application to case histories in Japan indicates that the proposed two-parameter equation can adequately account for the occurrence and non-occurrence of liquefaction at various sites as compared to the conventional PGA-based approach. Moreover, analyses of several strong motion records at various sites show that liquefaction may occur when PGA≥150 gal and PGV≥20 kine, indicating that these values can serve as thresholds in assessing the possible occurrence of liquefaction.     

Influence of the ground profile on the reduction of earthquake motion at the filled man-made islands in the Kobe harbor during the 1995 Hyogoken Nambu earthquake

During the 1995 Hyogoken Nambu earthquake in Kobe, the ground motion at the filled man-made islands in the Kobe harbor was not as severe as that at the mainland. The building damage was also less compared to that on the mainland. It was found by comparative study of earthquake records that the magnitude of acceleration response on the ground surface decreases at the islands as opposed to the mainland. One dimensional effective stress analysis is adopted in this study. Input data has been generated from test results, e.g. the SPT N-value by standard penetration test and shear wave velocity V_s by PS logging. Results obtained by the analyses showed good agreement with the observed records, which is an indication of the suitability of the adopted analysis procedure. From this study, the followings are concluded. By the increase of SPT N-value of the filled layers, liquefaction near ground surface is restrained and damage modes such as ejection of water and soil can be prevented. Since the ground profile at the islands is that considerably soft filled layer and marine clay layers, etc. are present and the thickness of the surface layer is large, the initial natural period of the ground is above 1 s and the natural period is elongated further under the earthquake excitation, which is deemed to be the principal reason for the reduction of the earthquake motion at the ground surface.     

巴林左旗-阿鲁科尔沁旗5.9级地震余震序列精确定位及分布特征

2003年8月16日内蒙古巴林左旗与阿鲁科尔沁旗间发生5．9级地震，使内蒙古东部地震活动再次进入活跃阶段。通过对巴林左旗-阿鲁科尔沁旗5．9级地震余震序列分析表明，序列的空间位置变化不太大，集中发生在较小的区域内，说明该震震源体较小。整个余震序列以NWW向条带分布为主，条带的走向与宏观烈度等值线长轴方向及震源机制B节面方向一致。ML≥3．0余震形成NW和NE两条相互垂直的条带，主震发生在NW条带的北西端。分析余震序列深度剖面图，说明NW向可能为此次地震的主破裂方向。