Earthquake magnitude estimation using the τc and Pd method for earthquake early warning systems

Earthquake early warning （EEW） systems are one of the most effective ways to reduce earthquake disaster. Earthquake magnitude estimation is one of the most important and also the most difficult parts of the entire EEW system. In this paper, based on 142 earthquake events and 253 seismic records that were recorded by the KiK-net in Japan, and aftershocks of the large Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, we obtained earthquake magnitude estimation relationships using the τe and Pa methods. The standard variances of magnitude calculation of these two formulas are ±0.65 and ±0.56, respectively. The Pd value can also be used to estimate the peak ground motion of velocity, then warning information can be released to the public rapidly, according to the estimation results. In order to insure the stability and reliability of magnitude estimation results, we propose a compatibility test according to the natures of these two parameters. The reliability of the early warning information is significantly improved though this test.     

1992～2011年四川省地震局学术论文统计分析

以中国知网期刊全文数据库（CNKI）和维普科技期刊全文数据库为基础,统计分析了四川省地震局1992～2011年期间发表的地震期刊中文学术论文的情况。四川省地震局20年间共计发表论文1171篇,平均每年产出地震期刊学术论文58．5篇,以四川省地震局为第一署名单位论文925篇,平均每年46篇,论文数量逐年分布呈上升趋势,且与强震活动相关;论文刊载于74种中文科技期刊,总频次大于20次的高频期刊有8个;论文基金资助率逐年增加。论文统计结果显示四川地震科技研究工作一直在持续进步,在科技发展的主动性和创新性以及基层台站科研方面需进一步加强。     

玉树地区两次强震序列应力降对比研究

利用青海省数字地震台网记录到的玉树地区2006年5级强震群地震和2010年7．1级地震的数字波形资料,计算了这2次地震序列应力降值,并进行了对比,发现应力降值在中强余震前都出现较明显的变化,同时随着地震的衰减,应力降值也逐渐减小。     

国外地震重防区农村地区安保工作的主要做法和经验

通过对国外以美、日等发达国家为代表的经济发达地区,以智利、墨西哥等南美多地震国家为代表的发展中国家,以印度、伊朗等亚洲多地震但经济欠发达国家为代表的3种模式的农村地区防震安保工作的主要做法和经验的分析对比,以期对我国农村地区地震安保工作的发展和完善有一定的借鉴和启示作用。     

Structural geomorphology,active faulting and slope deformations in the epicentre area of the MW 7.0, 1857, Southern Italy earthquake

In tectonically active domains, fault propagation processes are revealed by landforms. A characteristic morphological feature of exposed active faults is the occurrence of triangular facets. Triangle-shaped landforms morphologically similar to fault-related triangular facets result from erosion of moderately-to-steeply dipping strata or layered successions along fold limbs and are known as flatirons. Triangular facets and flatirons may commonly coexist in mountain chains resulting from the superposition of recent extensional faulting on inherited fold-and-thrust architecture. In these settings analysis of flatirons and triangular facets is not trivial and may result in geomorphologic misinterpretations, hence undermine the interpretations of the geological structure and related deformation history. Here we show that active fault lineaments can be discriminate by inherited morpho-structure. We present the combined results of photo-geological and field survey carried out along well-exposed triangular shaped landforms located in the seismically active Upper Agri River Valley of the Southern Apennine. We found that triangular shaped landforms develop along a major fold back-limb, the Mt. Lama western slope, making it possible to unequivocally interpret these as flatirons. Downslope, Mt. Lama back limb is affected by a large deep-sited landslide whose scarp bound the flatirons and mimics a Holocene fault scarp. This inference appears significant, since the investigated landforms were interpreted by many authors as triangular facets related to an active normal fault, located at its foot, responsible for large historical earthquakes (i.e., the 1857 earthquake). We provide new criteria to discriminate morphologic convergence in tectonically active domains, with consequences for the regional geological interpretation, and for the assessment of geological hazards.     

亚失稳阶段雁列断层热场演化的实验研究

寻找地震前兆是国内外地震预报的难点.在实验室开展岩石变形实验,观测相关物理量的演化特征和规律,是前兆探索中重要的基础工作.本文对压性雁列断层进行变形实验,根据应力时间曲线将具有前兆意义的变形阶段分为强偏离线性阶段、亚失稳阶段和失稳阶段,利用红外热像仪记录各个阶段的热场变化,特别是亚失稳阶段的热场表现.研究结果显示:强偏离线性阶段,岩桥区挤压升温;亚失稳阶段,断层带增温,且高温点扩展连通,断层带内侧卸载降温,断层带上的协同化增温和断层带内侧(包含岩桥区)的协同化降温是失稳前的重要信号;失稳阶段,应力释放,标本整体降温,只有断层带因摩擦升温.总之,亚失稳阶段的热场具有明显特征,利于识别出亚失稳态;不同变形阶段、不同构造部位温度变化不同,在寻找与构造活动相关的热异常时,应考虑变形所处的阶段及异常所处的构造部位.     

井孔水温对远场巨震同震响应及其机制的数模研究

热量的流动必然伴随着温度的改变,地震活动期间的井孔水温同震响应也服从热力学的基本规律。本文以汶川8.0级地震和日本福岛9.0级地震为例,以海口ZK26井水温同震响应的观测数据为基础,运用热力学传导方程的数值模拟方法,研究了同震响应过程中井孔水温度变化与热量传导之间的关系及相关的热力学机制问题。通过正演的方法,得出沿井深方向不同时刻水温同震响应变化的数值模拟曲线,水温数值模拟曲线与实际测量数据一致。研究结果表明,井孔中水温同震响应方式（上升、下降或不变）,与水温传感器的位置、热源的位置和分布、传感器与热源之间的相对空间等因素有关。     

芦山MS7.0级地震余震序列重新定位及构造意义

利用四川省地震台网的震相数据和双差定位方法对芦山M_S7.0级地震及其余震序列进行了精确定位,根据余震分布确定了发震断层的位置和断层面的几何特征,并对余震活动进行了分析.结果显示,芦山M_S7.0级地震的震中位于30.28°N、102.99°E,震源深度为16.33 km.余震沿发震断层向主震两侧延伸,主要分布在长约32 km、宽约15~20 km、深度为5~24 km的范围内.地震破裂带朝西南方向扩展范围较大,东北方向略小,余震震级随时间迅速衰减.震源深度剖面清晰地显示出发震断层的逆冲破裂特征,推测发震断层为大川—双石断裂东侧约10 km的隐伏断层.该断层走向217°、倾向北西,倾角约45°,产状与大川—双石断裂相比略缓,它们同属龙门山前山断裂带的叠瓦状逆冲断层系.受发震断裂影响,部分余震沿大川—双石断裂分布,西北方向的余震延伸至宝兴杂岩体的东南缘,与汶川地震的破裂带之间存在50 km左右的地震空区,有可能成为未来发生强震的潜在危险区.     

玉树地震震源区速度结构与余震分布的关系

利用玉树震区21个应急流动地震台站和青海省地震台网固定地震台站的观测数据,采用双差层析成像方法,对2010年4月14日至6月15期间发生的地震进行了重定位,并反演得到了玉树地震震源区的三维速度结构.重定位结果揭示余震主要沿NW向成窄带状分布在断层的两侧,表明脆性破裂应力释放主要集中于一个狭窄的区域内.在西北端,余震偏离玉树—甘孜断裂分布,在SW向也有分布,推测可能与南西向次级断裂有关.双差层析成像得到的速度结构在浅部与地表地质构造相一致,中上地壳的速度结构显示巴颜喀拉地块为高速异常,羌塘地块为低速异常.玉树地震余震分布与特定的速度结构存在相关性：主震发生在高低速过渡带偏高速体的一侧,余震主要分布在高速体外围,高速体内部几乎没有余震分布.一般说来,中上地壳的高速体通常具有较高的强度,可以积累较强的孕震能量.主震发生后,高速体内积累的弹性能量向周边释放,可能是导致高速体周边余震发生的主要原因.