Framework for the derivation of analytical fragility curves and life cycle cost analysis for non-seismically designed buildings

The quantification of the devastating effects of earthquakes on buildings can be achieved with the use of earthquake risk assessment. The formulation of strategies to minimise this risk is a complex task which relies on data regarding mainly the hazard, vulnerability and remaining life of the building. In this paper, the case study of Limassol municipality is presented. Initially, the building inventory and categorisation is defined followed by the selection of hazard scenarios and the development of analytical vulnerability curves. In the final part, risk assessment is performed leading to the formulation of retrofitting strategies for long term use.     

川滇M≥6.7强震的二维坐标系与时间预测研究

20世纪以来,川滇地区M≥6.7强震时间间隔具有良好的规律性,其地震发生的年份可组成一个二维时间坐标系,并据此建立川滇地区的强震时间预测模型。预测分析表明：未来16年,川滇地区可能存在发生4次6.7级以上地震发生的风险,2012-2021及2025-2029年均有M≥6.7强震信号,且未来强震可能发生在2014-2015、2019与2027年前后。     

大地震前体应变临震异常现象

本文对2011年1月至2014年4月间全球发生的80次MS≥7.0级地震前,二张营台和天堂河台Sacks体应变临震异常现象进行了研究,针对复杂震例提出了异常识别的前提条件。统计结果显示,体应变观测对震中距为8000km范围内的MS≥7.0级地震映震和前兆异常反映较好。同时,对异常现象进行了分类和描述,划分了三种异常类型：即固体潮畸变型、突变型和慢地震型,并对各种类型作了统计分析,进行了力学性质初步探讨。从研究结果来看,体应变异常信息对未来全球强震的发生具有一定的预示意义。     

新疆2次中强地震前的临界慢化现象研究

以2011年尼勒克、巩留交界6.0级和新源、和静交界6.6级地震为例,研究了2次地震前周边的形变和流体资料的临界慢化现象。首先,用小波变换方法对观测资料进行了预处理,然后计算了临界慢化现象的预警指标,方差和自相关系数,进而总结了2次6级地震发生前观测资料的临界慢化现象特征。结果表明,2次6级地震前出现了临界慢化现象。     

地下水测年方法及其在地震监测中的应用展望

对地下水动力学特征的观测与研究,是地震前兆监测的重要方法之一。地下水动力学研究中,利用地下水测年方法,可以对地下水的补给、径流特征及更新能力作出定性和定量的分析。本文介绍了近年来国际上常用的地下水测年方法,总结了前人在该领域的主要研究进展,重点分析了地下水更新能力与地震前兆信息的关系、地下水运动规律与地震构造活动的关系以及地下水浅层补给与异常干扰排除的方法等。已有的研究成果表明,地下水年龄的测定与分析方法对于了解监测点映震能力、评价构造活动与地震活动程度,以及在观测资料异常变化的现场核实等方面,可以发挥重要作用。     

Hawaii bibliographic database

 The Hawaii bibliographic database has been created to contain all of the literature, from 1779 to the present, pertinent to the volcanological history of the Hawaiian-Emperor volcanic chain. References are entered in a PC- and Macintosh-compatible EndNote Plus bibliographic database with keywords and abstracts or (if no abstract) with annotations as to content. Keywords emphasize location, discipline, process, identification of new chemical data or age determinations, and type of publication. The database is updated approximately three times a year and is available to upload from an ftp site. The bibliography contained 8460 references at the time this paper was submitted for publication. Use of the database greatly enhances the power and completeness of library searches for anyone interested in Hawaiian volcanism. Received: 1 June 1997 / Accepted: 17 September 1997     

The varve-related ice-dammed lake events in Glen Roy and vicinity: a new interpretation

This paper presents a new interpretation of the sequence of events in Glen Roy and vicinity during the Loch Lomond Stadial that can be inferred from a detailed varve record constructed by Palmer et al. (2010). 300 years of Younger Dryas glacier advance in the Scottish Highlands are recorded by very thin varves formed in an ice-dammed lake up to 35 km long. At a varve site now occupied by Loch Laggan the lake stood permanently at 260 m, but in Glen Roy varves were also laid down in a lake at 325 m and, later, 350 m caused by glacier advance. Initial ice retreat recorded by a gradual increase in varve thickness was soon followed by much thicker varves. The varve sequences are interrupted by a sand bed caused by sudden drainage of the 350 m lake. The major varves of the Glen Roy sequence show that storminess was still increasing in intensity at least 160 years after glacier retreat had begun. At the Loch Laggan site 15 cm of deformed sediments register an earthquake that produced 3 m faulted uplift of all three Glen Roy shorelines, a response to the abrupt removal of 5 km³ of water when the 260 m lake was catastrophically drained by jökulhlaup. The deformed sediments are immediately followed by varves deposited in a local lake, ice-dammed lake sedimentation now having ceased, having lasted more than 460 years.     

Hydrachemical Characteristics at the Seismic Stations in Songyuan District,Jilin Province

The hydrochemical types and origins of underground water in Songyuan and vicinity, Liaoning Province were discussed based on the hydrochemical composition, δD and δ¹⁸O. The water samples from eight wells were collected 4 times during 2014 to 2015. The main ion concentrations of water were analyzed with an Ion Chromatography. Isotopic compositions of hydrogen and oxygen were analyzed with the Liquid Water Isotope Analyzer. The mineralization (TDS) of the water ranged from 125.4 mg/L to 19 350.9 mg/L. Values of δD and δ¹⁸O ranged from -71.7‰ to -98.1‰ and from -9.0‰ to -12.5‰, respectively. The isotopic data indicated that the water originated from meteorological precipitation. The chemical compositions of Taolaizhao phreatic water were influenced by the human activity while the other water samples collected from artesian well were less affected by the human activity. Water in Changling, Dongdashi, Taohaotai, Qianan and Ningjiang were characterized by HCO₃-Na with low TDS values. Such chemical types of water with fluctuations of Na⁺, SO42- and δ¹⁸O drift were resulted from dissolving silicate minerals and adding surfactant during oil exploitation. Fresh water in Fuyu well was Cl-Na type, which was influenced by acid injection during oil exploitation. Water in Qianguo well was characterized by Cl-Na type with TDS up to 19 350.9 mg/L, the obvious fluctuations of hydrogen and oxygen isotopes and increasing ion concentrations in the Qianguo well may be caused by the earthquakes that occurred in the sampling duration. The results will provide the background of hydrochemistry, and will be of benefit to monitoring earthquake and certificating seismic-chemical anomalies in the future.     

地震监测人工源极低频电磁技术(CSELF)新试验

2009年利用大功率人工源极低频电磁技术(CSELF)在位于华北、华南、东北、西北和西南的12个地震台站和几个流动观测点进行了连续30天新的观测试验.结果表明,利用CSELF技术可以在1700 km之外测量到人工源电磁场信号,计算得到的电、磁场功率谱密度和视电阻率与天然源信号相比,抗干扰能力更强,观测信号更稳定,特别有利于识别和捕捉地震等诱发的电磁异常现象,在地震预测监测中具有很大的研究应用潜力.试验还发现,各地震台站和流动测点观测的CSELF信号的强度,与台站或者测量的电、磁场分量相对于发射源的距离、方位有明显的关系;发现在离开发射源的相对近区,场强随距离的衰减,比在相对远区更快;发现接收磁场信号比电场信号较易获得更高信噪比的数据.     

2008年汶川MS8.0地震对周边断层地震活动的影响

为分析2008年5月12日四川汶川M_S8.0级地震对周边断层地震活动的影响,本文首先基于Burgers体黏滞松弛模型计算汶川M_S8.0级地震引起的库仑应力动态演化,分析认为2008年汶川M_S8.0级地震在周边断层上引起的库仑应力显著增加的主要有四个断层段,分别为鲜水河断裂道孚-康定段、东昆仑断裂东段玛曲段、青川断裂和龙门山断裂南段.而且震后4年内黏滞松弛引起的库仑应力变化量可能与同震变化相当,相当于再发生一次汶川地震所造成的影响,因此震后效应在分析强震影响时不应忽略.本文基于强震引起的库仑应力变化动态演化,结合背景地震发生率、由Dieterich(1994)模型给出地震发生概率,结合相关构造地质、历史地震、余震活动等方面资料的综合分析认为,上述4个断裂段地震危险性由高到低依次为鲜水河断裂道孚-康定段、龙门山断裂南段、东昆仑断裂东段玛曲段和青川断裂.