Retrieving earthquake signature in grace gravity solutions

The GRACE satellites have been orbiting the Earth since 2002, monitoring the time variable gravity field. Some of the observed fluctuations are due to geodynamic causes, but they are often hidden in the complex signal, composed of hydrology, ocean, atmosphere, and geodynamics, the signal of geodynamic origin being usually the smallest. In addition, dealiasing residuals and noise make the separation of the signal from the different causes more difficult. We proposed a method based on the Empirical Orthogonal Function decomposition to extract the signal of physical origin, under the hypothesis that the physical signal is spatially more consistent than the noise and aliasing incomplete correction. We used synthetic geoid variations associated with earthquakes located at nearly 2000 positions at the Earth surface, based on several examples of large actual subduction events. We show that, with the present day accuracy, we can retrieve the geoid variations associated with more than 98 per cent of the earthquakes of magnitude 9 or above, around 60 per cent for magnitude 8.8, 40 per cent for magnitude 8.6 and 33 per cent for magnitude 8.3. Some events, with the right properties and location, can be detected with magnitude as low as 8. We then applied the method to the GRACE solutions, and retrieved the Hokkaido event (2003) and the Sumatra event (2004), which is in agreement with the retrieval rates mentioned here above.     

沂沭断裂带构造区光弹实验与地震危险区判定研究

在对沂沭断裂带的地质构造环境、断裂带分布特征进行详细分析的基础上,采用聚碳酸酯材料制成沂沭断裂带构造区域的地质模型,分别运用集中、2点和均布等加载方式,使用光弹实验方法模拟特定构造框架下应力、应变场的变化特征。通过对光弹实验数据的分析,在对比不同加载方式下应力积累区域和地震危险区的基础上判定沂沭断裂带构造区中的地震危险区域。     

Anomalous CO2 content in the Gallicano thermo-mineral spring (Serchio Valley,Italy) before the 21 June 2013, Alpi Apuane earthquake (M = 5.2)

Since late 2002, a continuous automatic monitoring network is operating in Tuscany, Central Italy, to investigate the geochemical response of selected aquifers to local seismic activity. The monitoring is aimed at identifying possible earthquake geochemical precursors. The network is currently constituted by six stations, all equipped with sensors for the measurement of temperature, pH, redox potential, electrical conductivity, CO₂ and CH₄ dissolved concentration, that have been installed in the areas of highest seismic risk of the region. By combining geochemical data gathered from the automatic station of Gallicano (Garfagnana, Northern Tuscany), and obtained via chemical analyses of spring water samples collected during periodic field surveys in the area surrounding this station, the most significant aspects of the deep fluid circulation paths feeding the Gallicano thermo-mineral system have been investigated, and the geochemical baseline of the Gallicano spring defined. The CO₂ continuous signal recorded by the Gallicano automatic station has been then processed over the period 2003–2013 in the search for anomalies possibly related to local seismic activity. A substantial anomaly in CO₂ content has been observed at Gallicano in conjunction with the Alpi Apuane earthquake (M = 5.2) of 21 June 2013.     

A qualitative study of seismic-ionospheric precursor phenomena monitored by a very close to the epicenter VLF and LF receiver

This work investigates the occurrence of disturbances across a wide range of VLF and LF frequencies received prior to a seismic event (Mw = 4), that took place on May 12th 2012, the epicenter of which was very close (14 km) to the VLF/LF station. The signals analyzed were emitted from five VLF and five LF European transmitters. This seismic event produced precursory ionospheric disturbances, identified as spectral distortion, three days before its occurrence, providing a distinct pattern open to further investigation. Although the basis of the ionosphere interaction with seismic phenomena has been well documented in previous studies, the close proximity of the receiver to the seismic event provides a new perspective to this study. The monitored signals have undergone normalization and then they have been processed by means of the Hilbert-Huang Transform. Diagrams of the signals relevant to the phenomena are presented and the disturbances that are present in the raw data are accentuated through further processing.     

新疆泥火山群地震前兆异常实时监测与预报的研究

基于网络技术的视频监控服务,实现了对新疆北天山地区3个泥火山点的实时监测,可在线实时查看泥火山活动情况,分析预报人员依据泥火山活动图像可开展地震预测研究。新疆艾其沟泥火山网络视频监控服务系统扑捉到了2次6级地震前火山液面明显的宏观异常变化现象,这说明基于宽带网络技术的网络视频监控服务,可实现互联网用户使用客户端远程软件连接服务器,实现在线实时查看泥火山活动情况的监控画面,并依据泥火山群地震观测网,捕捉泥火山群地震前兆异常。     

地震安全示范社区建设标准研究

根据中国地震局的统一部署,近几年多个省份开展了地震安全示范社区建设,从加强抗震设防到应急预案编制、志愿者队伍建设、宣传教育等各个方面都不同程度地开展了工作。但现有的地震安全示范社区建设还没有统一建设和评价标准,建设水平也有较大的差距,对于推进这一工作的开展十分不利。本文通过系统的资料收集和调研,结合在大连市开展的具体实践,对地震安全示范社区建设与研究现状进行了分析,综合各省市实践经验和行业管理办法,参考安全社区建设方面的标准和管理规定,给出了地震安全社区的定义、建设标准应包含的要素及主要内容,讨论了应用前景和可能存在的问题,为今后全国范围内进一步开展此项工作提供了依据,也为制定行业标准奠定了基础。     

基于ArcGIS的国家台网地震速报地名查询辅助系统设计与实现

基于国家台网地震速报的实际工作需求,针对国家台网在全球地震速报中缺乏专门的地名查询系统,通过对国家台网实时、人机交互处理子系统和全国速报信息交换平台(EQIM系统)的相关协议和数据接口进行研究,并结合地震速报相关规定中对地名的要求,基于地理信息系统Arc GIS提供的Arc GIS Engine(AE)组件技术,采用Visual.Net开发平台和COM组件技术,来实现获取地震地名信息的功能,开发设计一套用于国家台网地震速报的地名查询辅助系统,希望可以有效提高国家台网地震速报的效率和准确度。     

地磁加卸载响应比方法最佳阈值研究

地磁加卸载响应比方法(LURR)是从测震学中移植过来的、用于地震中期分析预测的一种地磁学方法。笔者应用红山地震台地磁数字化观测数据进行了地磁加卸载响应比的计算分析,经过统计得出在阈值选择为3.0时对地震进行预测的效果比较好,其与地震的对应概率为42%。同时,笔者还认为可能受限于方法本身及外界因素,地磁加卸载响应比方法在进行地震预测时,其虚报率及漏报率较高。     

基于层次分析法的城市非工程性防震减灾能力综合评价模型

城市非工程性防震减灾能力对于降低城市地震灾害具有重要作用,但该概念中含有众多影响因素,而且与城市的空间分布情况有关。为了科学的评价分析该能力,本文采用了层次分析法对城市非工程性防震减灾能力各影响因素进行分析,建立多层次结构模型,确定各因素影响权重,并将其嵌入Arc GIS平台,关联城市空间分布形成数据库,开发了城市非工程性防震减灾能力评价系统,实现了快速评价和结果可视化,可以有效提高决策效能,为未来城市非工程性防震减灾规划提供了有力支撑。     

Comparison of 1D linear,equivalent-linear,and nonlinear site response models at six KiK-net validation sites

Vertical seismometer arrays represent a unique interaction between observed and predicted ground motions, and they are especially helpful for validating and comparing site response models. In this study, we perform comprehensive linear, equivalent-linear, and nonlinear site response analyses of 191 ground motions recorded at six validation sites in the Kiban–Kyoshin network (KiK-net) of vertical seismometer arrays in Japan. These sites, which span a range of geologic conditions, are selected because they meet the basic assumptions of one-dimensional (1D) wave propagation, and are therefore ideal for validating and calibrating 1D nonlinear soil models. We employ the equivalent-linear site response program SHAKE, the nonlinear site response program DEEPSOIL, and a nonlinear site response overlay model within the general finite element program Abaqus/Explicit. Using the results from this broad range of ground motions, we quantify the uncertainties of the alternative site response models, measure the strain levels at which the models break down, and provide general recommendations for performing site response analyses. Specifically, we find that at peak shear strains from 0.01% to 0.1%, linear site response models fail to accurately predict short-period ground motions; equivalent-linear and nonlinear models offer a significant improvement at strains beyond this level, with nonlinear models exhibiting a slight improvement over equivalent-linear models at strains greater than approximately 0.05%.