1999年以来地震生命损失评估研究新进展

地震后造成人员伤亡的影响因素有很多,包括震级、烈度、人口、房屋破坏程度、与断层的距离、经济发展状况等.本文总结了1999年以来国内外地震生命损失研究中的若干方法和模型,介绍了这些评估方法在地震后的应用情况,并进行了适当的总结.最后提出了人员伤亡评估的发展趋势.     

自然灾害遗址型黑色旅游地参观者动机研究——以汶川地震北川遗址公园为例

黑色旅游是当前国内外研究的热点之一,黑色旅游开发是自然灾害发生地灾后恢复的一种重要方式。以往研究较多关注战争与事件型黑色旅游地,对自然灾害遗址型旅游地的研究较少。本文以汶川地震北川遗址公园为案例,构建了参观者动机测量量表;通过因子分析得到了教育与纪念动机、社交与亲情动机、感受与见证动机、认同与求新动机和好奇心动机五大类参观者动机类型。为分析和比较不同来源地参观者动机的特征,探究事件关注度和认知欲望对不同类型动机的影响程度差异,分别以全体参观者和四川参观者为样本构建了结构方程模型。结果显示:全体参观者模型中,事件关注度对教育与纪念、社交与亲情等动机影响较大,而对好奇心动机影响较小;认知欲望对教育与纪念、感受与见证以及好奇心等动机影响较大,而对认同和求新动机影响较小。在四川参观者模型中,参观者对汶川事件的关注度不能激发感受与见证动机,认知欲望对社交与亲情动机的影响也不显著,而对于汶川地震地区的认同感和集体认同感较强。     

汶川地震灾区滑坡空间特征变化分析

“5.12”汶川大地震触发了大量滑坡,给人民群众生命财产和社会经济发展造成了巨大损失。基于GIS空间分析方法,结合震前和震后的滑坡编目数据,对滑坡与坡度、坡向、高程、岩土类型、道路、河流和断裂带等7个孕灾环境因素的空间分布关系进行统计分析。结果表明：滑坡与孕灾环境因素的空间分布关系受地震的影响比较大。相比于震前,震后滑坡发生的优势坡度、优势岩土类型、优势距离缓冲区等均发生了很大的变化;并且坡向、距道路距离、距河流距离等因素对滑坡有明显地趋势性影响。     

利用航磁、重力资料研究川滇地区大陆变形特征

利用航磁、重力资料对川滇地区大陆变形特征进行了研究。航磁异常揭示了研究区内的基底性质及其横向差异,研究区内的强烈地震主要集中在航磁异常突变带上,基底性质横向差异有利于应力的相对集中,成为地震孕育和发生的有利部位。康定—绵阳一带刚性基底的阻挡造成了青藏高原下地壳物质向东的塑性流动被迫转向南东—南南东方向,进而造成了川滇菱形块体内广泛的地壳增厚,布格重力异常等值线呈向南东伸出的舌状是其地壳增厚作用的直观反映。川滇地区的大陆变形特征既存在广泛的地壳增厚现象,同时在下地壳塑性流动的驱动下,中、上地壳破碎成大小不一的块体,变形特征表现出整体刚性,因而不能简单地套用“地壳增厚”或“大陆逃逸”模式。     

1999年台湾集集地震震源破裂过程

使用GPS同震位移资料和远场P波记录,研究了1999年台湾集集地震震源破裂过程．根据地质构造和余震分布引入了一个由弯曲断层面构造的三段“铲状”断层模型．在使用静态GPS位移资料反演集集地震的断层破裂滑动分布时,由于集集地震断层北部近地表破裂的复杂性,在位错模型中考虑拉张分量对地表同震位移的贡献,可更好地同时拟合GPS观测资料的水平和垂向分量．而纯剪切位错弹性半空间模型和分层地壳模型都无法同时拟合水平和垂向GPS观测资料．在此基础上,同时使用静力学同震位移资料和远场地震波形记录,反演集集地震的震源破裂过程．结果表明,一种垂直于断层面的“挤压性”(负)拉张分量几乎集中分布于地震断层的浅部和北部转折处,而这一带地表破裂远较没有(负)拉张分量出现的南部断层复杂．“冒起构造”的数字模拟表明,这种在集集地震破裂转折处及北部断裂带广为出现的典型破裂造成的地表位移可以用具有负拉张分量(挤压)的逆冲断层更好地模拟．而这种负拉张分量(挤压)的分布正是地震破裂性质和几何复杂性的综合反映,震源破裂过程也显示北部转折处破裂在空间和时间上的复杂性.高滑区域与余震分布表现为负相关.     

地震与核爆识别的小波包分量比方法

频谱分析法在核爆与地震识别中具有广泛的应用．但是频谱分析方法是稳态方法,即使采用Gabor变换,也因时-频窗口形状不变而分辨串较低．为提高时-频分辨率,本文将小波变换理论用于乌鲁木齐台记录的地震与核爆事件的分析,并提出了识别核爆和天然地震的小波包分量比判据．通过对加拿大黄刀地震台记录的印度地下核爆的分析,进一步验证了小波包分量比判据对核爆和地震的识别具有较高的识别效率．结果表明：对于地震信号,其小波包分量比U03/U1一般都大于1.0,而对于核爆信号,比值U03／U13一般都小于1.0.     

On-chip earthquake simulation model using potentials

A two-dimensional (2-D) Cellular Automata (CA) dynamic system constituted of cells-charges has been proposed for the simulation of the earthquake process. The CA model has been calibrated with the use of real data. The calibration incorporates major seismic characteristics of the area under test. The simulation results are found in good quantitative and qualitative agreement with the recorded Gutenberg–Richter (GR) scaling relations. The model is enriched with a powerful multi-parameter interface that enables the user to load real data from different regions. This paper examines the on-chip realisation of the model and its instrumentation. The CA model hardware implementation is based on Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) logic. It utilises an array of 32 × 32 cells. Parameters that construct the local CA rule constitute the input data. The initial seed, which to some extent corresponds to the seismic features of the area under test, is loaded in a semi-parallel way and the process is completed in a certain number of time steps. The automatic response of the processor provides the corresponding GR scaling law of the area under study. The hardware implementation of the CA-based earthquake simulation model is advantageous in terms of low-cost, high-speed, compactness and portability features. It can operate as a preliminary data-acquisition filter that accelerates the evaluation of recorded data as far as its origin time, spatial and magnitude completeness and quality are concerned. Software that performs reliable automatic phase picking, as well as data elaboration, can be assembled next to the earthquake recording instruments (the whole network) output to assure a quick and reliable iteration of the focal parameters of a recorded earthquake (epicentre coordinates, focal depth and magnitude). The dedicated processor can be accommodated right after this stage (before any manual elaboration) focusing on the near real-time development of a reliable qualitative dynamical seismic record and a mapping of the seismic characteristics of the area.     

Crustal seismic velocity in the Marche region (Central Italy): computation of a minimum 1-D model with seismic station corrections

A 1-D velocity model for the Marche region (Central Italy) was computed by inverting P- and S-wave arrival times of local earthquakes. A total of 160 seismic events with a minimum of ten observations, a travel time residual ≤0.8 s and an azimuthal gap lower than 180° have been selected. This “minimum 1-D velocity model” is complemented by station corrections, which can be used to take into account possible near-surface velocity heterogeneities beneath each station. Using this new P-wave velocity model and the program HYPOELLIPSE (Lahr 1999), the selected local events were relocated. Earthquake locations in this study are of higher quality with respect to the original ones. The obtained minimum 1-D velocity model can be used to improve the routine earthquake locations and represents a further step towards more detailed seismotectonic studies of the area.     

Vp/Vs Anisotropy and Implications for Crustal Composition Identification and Earthquake Prediction

Abstract: The ratio of P- to S-wave velocities (Vp/Vs) is regarded as one of the most diagnostic properties of natural rocks. It has been used as a discriminant of composition for the continental crust and provides valuable constraints on its formation and evolution processes. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal changes in Vp/Vs before and after earthquakes are probably the most promising avenue to understanding the source mechanics and possibly predicting earthquakes. Here we calibrate the variations in Vp/Vs in dry, anisotropic crustal rocks and provide a set of basic information for the interpretation of future seismic data from the Wenchuan earthquake Fault zone Scientific Drilling (WFSD) project and other surveys. Vp/Vs is a constant (Ф0) for an isotropic rock. However, most of crustal rocks are anisotropic due to lattice-preferred orientations of anisotropic minerals (e.g., mica, amphibole, plagioclase and pyroxene) and cracks as well as thin compositional layering. The Vp/Vs ratio of an anisotropic rock measured along a selected pair of propagation-vibration directions is an apparent value (Фij) that is significantly different from the value for its isotropic counterpart (Ф0). The usefulness of apparent Vp/Vs ratios as a diagnostic of crustal composition depends largely on rock seismic anisotropy. A 5% of P- and S-wave velocity anisotropy is sufficient to make it impossible to determine the crustal composition using the conventional criteria (Vp/Vs≤1.756 for felsic rocks, 1.7561.944 fluid-filled porous/fractured or partially molten rocks) if the information about the wave propagation-polarization directions with respect to the tectonic framework is unknown. However, the variations in Vp/Vs measured from borehole seismic experiments can be readily interpreted according to the orientations of the ray path and the polarization of the shear waves with respect to the present-day principal stress directions (i.e., the orientation of cracks) and the frozen fabric (i.e., foliation and lineation).     

龙门山中央断裂北川－邓家一带古地震初步研究

龙门山断裂带是否存在类似汶川5.12大地震的地质记录,是地震科学工作者所关注的科学问题之一。处于中央断裂带中段和北段分界地区的北川－邓家一带,古地震研究对认识整个龙门山断裂带的大地震复发特征有重要意义。沿北川－邓家地震地表破裂带,可能有过早期活动,并兼顾是否有较多细粒第四纪沉积物,以便能较清晰地分析、判断古地震事件以及采集测年样品,所以我们在沙坝1组、和尚坪和邓家海光6组等3个地点开挖了4个探槽,并进行了断错地貌的实测,发现了该地区明显的古地震遗迹,以及该地区特殊的正断层地表破裂样式。通过探槽和实测地貌情况与前人在龙门山中央和前山断裂带的古地震研究结果的对比分析,结果显示该地区至少发生过两次地震事件(包括5.12地震事件在内),与龙门山中央和前山断裂大部分地点已揭露的古地震事件相吻合。而通过对该地区地貌侵蚀特征与地震陡坎的高度变化分析,可以得出该地区之前的地震事件与5.12地震的大小相近。