黑龙江省1986年德都中强地震震源参数

本文应用体波频谱估算地震矩、应力降、震源尺度、破裂传播速度、断层平均位错等震源参数。并讨论现代构造运动、震源机及地震与火山活动关系。     

考虑地基土液化影响的桩基高层建筑体系地震反应分析

本文建立了土体－结构体系地震反应分析的混合有限元法，并研究了地基土液化对地震反应的影响。本方法把土体－结构体系简化为一个完整的体系，该体系由梁（柱）单元、剪切杆单元、刚体单元、平面四边形等参单元与三角形单元、界面单元的任意组合来模拟。桩与上部结构材料视为线弹性体，土介质视为非线性材料。土的静应力－应变关系之间的非线性用邓肯一张模型来描述；土的动应力－应变关系之间的非线性和振动孔隙水压力对土的软化效     

我国现行抗震设计规范中场地评定方法的比较和评述

目前，我国抗震设计规范中采用的场地评定方法主要有两种：一是建筑抗震设计规范（ＧＢＪ１１－８９）采用的场地分类的方法，一是构筑物抗震设计规范（ＧＢ５０１９１－９３）和电力设施抗震设计规范采用的场地指数法。前者是把场地影响按照场地分类指标划分成若干场地类别，因此，确定的地震荷载是不连续的，跳跃变化的。后者是一种以模糊推论的综合评判方法导出的场地指数为指标进行连续评定的新方法，在这种方法里，场地性质的差     

华北北部地区2005年前地震危险性预测研究进展

综述了利用确定性和概率性相结合的预测方法，对华北北部地区２００５年前的地震危险性进行了概率预测研究。研究表明，该区在２００年前发生６级以上地震的概率为０．４５，其中涿鹿－怀来一带地区内每个计算单元中的发展概率最高，达到０．０２。     

地震活动性的细胞自动机模型

本文在二维平面设计了一个模拟地震活动性的细胞自动机模型，分析了模拟地震离列的活动性，并探讨了强震前场兆和源兆的物理机制，结果表明，模型的地震序列很好地反映了实际地震的丛集特性、幂律关系和空间转移概率的稳定性等特点。     

发震时深浅构造相互作用导致横向断层致锁的有限元分析

本文利用三维有限元方法，研究和计算了大震发生前、发生时，发生后震源断层面与深部同面立接断层之间的相互作用以及发震后促使深部断层发生错动从而对震源区近场横向活动断层致锁的结果，得到以下结果：（１）临近大震前震源断层面端部调整单元下方的深部断层有较高的剪应力水平，造成震时对震源断层面发生底辟作用的条件，即调整单元区对应的深部断层单元首次满足破裂条件并发生破裂。（２）震源端部的调整单元和具有蠕能力的横向     

Crustal transit time monitoring using PKP

The arrival time difference for the AB branch of PKP from deep Tonga earthquakes is constant over years with a standard deviation of ±0.05 seconds at seismographs located 10 to 50 km from each other. If published travel time curves are used to calculate the relative residuals of PKP the standard deviation from the constant mean is improved by approximately 0.01 seconds for AB branch data. For the BC branch, standard deviations of relative travel times of ±0.06 seconds are reduced to less than ±0.05 seconds by calculating relative residuals. We conclude that changes of crustal transit time forP-waves could be resolved, based on careful PKP arrival time measurement at two or more neighboring stations if the changes exceed 0.05 sec and last for more than one year. The conditions for achieving this result are that PKP from Tonga earthquakes is clearly recorded, and that time-keeping is accurate. The data on which these conclusions are based were obtained from the Graefenberg seismograph array, which is located in West Gemany and consists of 13 stations separated by distances of 10 km to 100 km. We propose that relative arrival times of PKP from Tonga could be used in the Mediterranean - Middle East area to search for precursory travel time changes before large earthquakes.     

建设数字地震 促进防震减灾

本文提出了“数字地震”的概念 ,讨论它的主要内容和问题 ,并对建设“数字地震”提出若干建设性意见。     

On the Bayesian analysis of the earthquake hazard in the North-East Indian peninsula

The Bayesian extreme-value distribution of earthquake occurrences has been used to estimate the seismic hazard in 12 seismogenic zones of the North-East Indian peninsula. The Bayesian approach has been used very efficiently to combine the prior information on seismicity obtained from geological data with historical observations in many seismogenic zones of the world. The basic parameters to obtain the prior estimate of seismicity are the seismic moment, slip rate, earthquake recurrence rate and magnitude. These estimates are then updated in terms of Bayes’ theorem and historical evaluations of seismicity associated with each zone. From the Bayesian analysis of extreme earthquake occurrences for North-East Indian peninsula, it is found that for T = 5 years, the probability of occurrences of magnitude (M _w = 5.0–5.5) is greater than 0.9 for all zones. For M _w = 6.0, four zones namely Z1 (Central Himalayas), Z5 (Indo-Burma border), Z7 (Burmese arc) and Z8 (Burma region) exhibit high probabilities. Lower probability is shown by some zones namely␣Z4, Z12, and rest of the zones Z2, Z3, Z6, Z9, Z10 and Z11 show moderate probabilities.     

Evaluation of seismic ground motion induced by topographic irregularity

Results of an extensive numerical study on the 2D scattering of seismic waves by local topography are presented. The investigation has been conducted using the direct boundary element method. Several types of topography (slopes, canyons and ridges) are considered. The influences of some key parameters, such as exciting frequency and geometry of the irregular feature, on surface ground motion are studied in detail. It is found that local topographic conditions play an important role in the modification of seismic ground motion at the irregular feature itself and its neighbourhood. The present results can be considered to be useful from the viewpoint of earthquake engineering and seismology.