地震监测中环境因素对精密水准观测影响分析

区域精密水准测量在地震监测中发挥了重要的作用,但是由于其作业范围广、观测周期长,容易受外界复杂多变的环境因素影响。目前对环境因素的影响分析大多是定性描述,缺乏实验观测数据的支撑。针对这一问题,选取大约2000km区域精密水准观测数据,结合观测环境资料,统计分析不同环境因素对观测成果的影响程度,并提出了相应的改进措施。     

基于断面突变的地铁隧道结构的抗震性能与措施研究

本文依托西安地铁5号线某区间工程,针对矿山法隧道与盾构法隧道接口处断面突变条件下的结构抗震性能进行了研究,研究表明,在地震作用下,当两者接口处隧道断面高差为3.5m时,隧道横向强度与变形、纵向抗拉与抗压均能满足规范要求。随着隧道断面高差的增大,结构变形也相应增大,接口处为结构抗震薄弱环节。当接口处矿山法隧道断面增大时,地表位移及盾构法隧道拱顶、拱底的相对位移差略有增大,而矿山法隧道拱顶、拱底相对位移增长趋势较为明显。当接口处隧道断面高差介于4—7.5m时,矿山法隧道拱顶、拱底相对位移明显增大,不利于结构抗震。因此为确保地震作用下不同断面隧道相接处的结构抗震满足要求,建议断面高差控制在4.0m以内,可将矿山法隧道设计成刚柔结合的复合式衬砌结构,同时可考虑加固地层、设置变形缝或柔性接缝,并在条件允许时适当减少衬砌结构厚度等。研究结论可为类似工程的设计与施工提供理论支撑。     

新疆地区县(市)地震应急能力指标体系的建立与区域差异初探

从新疆地区地震活动性、灾害背景及区域协同联动应急模式出发,在遵循科学性、系统优化和可操作性及区域特性等原则的基础上,采用层次分析法建立了县级行政单元的地震应急能力评价指标体系;继而建立了基于基础设施条件、基础人力物力财力、(县级)专项能力和专项经验及基础环境背景4个一类指标集的县(市)绝对地震应急能力综合评价模型,并根据新疆地区4类人员问卷调查资料,计算和分析了样本支持条件下各指标的权重及结果,将其应用在新疆地区县(市)地震应急能力等级划分中。结果表明,地震应急能力的空间分布格局的产生与区域经济发展水平和地理位置等方面所具备的优势是相适应的,安居富民工程对提升区域地震应急能力发挥了重要作用,少数民族聚集区应急能力有待加强,寒旱、高海拔地区等特殊地理因素影响不可忽视。     

汶川地震地质灾害发育特点及动因机制分析

汶川地震地质灾害具有发生范围大、密度大、明显的成群成带性、灾害类型以崩塌滑坡为主、且崩塌远多于滑坡以及次生地质灾害将长期存在的特点.这些特点主要是由于地震波自(地壳)内而外的、纵波和横波的连环传播导致山体先是结构性损伤,继而使表层岩土体失稳而造成的.岩性、地形地貌以及岩层倾向的差异也在一定程度上影响着灾害类型的发育和空间分布.汶川地震次生地质灾害防治将是一个任务艰巨、过程漫长、前所未有、充满科技挑战的一项系统工程.     

Deep sea in situ excess pore pressure and sediment deformation off NW Sumatra and its relation with the December 26, 2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake

The swath bathymetric data acquired during the “Sumatra Aftershocks” cruise from the Sunda trench in the Indian Ocean to the north of the Sumatra Island imaged several scars and deposits. In situ pore pressure measurements using the Ifremer piezometer and coring demonstrate that high excess pore pressure and sediment deformation was generated by a recent event in the scar of the slope failure zone identified by J.T. Henstock and co-authors. This excess pore pressure is localized in the upper sedimentary layers and is not related to an interplate subduction process. Numerical simulations of the hydrological system that take into account the hydro-mechanical properties of the upper sediment layer show that the excess pore pressure and sediment deformations could be generated at the time of the December 26, 2004 Great Sumatra Earthquake. The Sumatra Aftershocks team: J.-C. Sibuet, S. Singh, R. Apprioual, N.C. Aryanto, J. Begot, A. Cattaneo, A.P.S. Chauchan, R. Creach, J. Crozon, A. Domzig, N. Falleau, D. Graindorge, F. Harmegnies, Y. Haryadi, F. Klingelhoffer, S.K. Kolluru, J.-Y. Landuré, C. Le Lann, J. Malod, A. Normand, G. Oggian, C. Rangin, D. Restunin Galih, J.-L. Schneider, N. Sultan, M. Taufik, M. Umber and H. Yamaguchi.     

5.12汶川地震对都汶公路(G213)沿线土地破坏及损失评价

5.12汶川地震及其次生山地灾害对灾区的土地资源造成了严重破坏,损失巨大.以重灾区都汶公路沿线为研究对象,通过野外实际调查,利用遥感影像解译和土地利用资料,探讨了地震引起的崩塌、滑坡等次生山地灾害对土地利用的破坏方式和特征,次生山地灾害以移动破坏、淤埋破坏和拉裂破坏3种形式破坏土地资源,并对土地利用损失进行了评估.结果表明:①各种土地利用类型中,淤埋破坏是最主要的破坏形式,占总破坏面积的77.23%,移动破坏面积占总破坏面积的22.77%;②林地和草地破坏呈现出在缓坡地带和陡坡地带破坏比例高,在中间地带破坏比例低的规律,旱地破坏具有随着坡度的增大而加剧的趋势;③研究区内各类土地利用类型总损失价值达76 577.26万元,其中林地损失量最大,占总损失价值的87.18%,是地震引起崩塌、滑坡灾害损失的主要对象.     

基于VBA的储层评价数据处理方法

针对储层评价工作中存在数据处理繁琐、易出错的问题,根据参数间的内在关系,利用Excel内嵌的VBA语言编写了储层评价数据处理程序.该程序以井斜数据、井数据、分层数据、砂体数据、测井解释成果表及夹层数据为基础,分析储层评价工作中数据间的关系,设计了相应的算法,实现了井斜校正、按层统计砂体厚度及计算砂地比、夹层统计、自动扣除夹层及有效厚度计算、储层特征参数和储量计算参数集总、坐标添加及常用绘图软件数据格式转化等功能.     

Early Detection of Terrorism Outbreaks Using Prospective Space–Time Scan Statistics

Terrorism is a complex phenomenon with high uncertainty involving a myriad of dynamic known and unknown factors. It is and will remain a challenge to predict or detect terrorism outbreaks at an early stage. This research presents an alternative approach for modeling terrorism activity, one that monitors and detects space–time clusters of terrorist incidents using prospective space–time scan statistics. Such clusters provide indicators of potential outbreaks of terrorist incidents. To evaluate the effectiveness of the approach, we analyze the terrorist incidents in the Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism's (START) Global Terrorism Database (GTD) from 1998 to 2004. Clusters of terrorist events are detected at each time stamp and life trajectories of these clusters are constructed based on their space–time relationship to each other. Through the life trajectories and trends of clusters, we demonstrate how space–time scan statistics detect terrorism outbreaks at an early stage.     

LOCATING EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN URBAN AREAS TO MINIMIZE TRAVEL TIME

The transportation requirements of an urban area are, in part, a function of its land use pattern. Reducing travel in an urban area by effective land use design appears to be a worthwhile public policy objective. The planning model derived in this article uses as its core the matrix version of the Lowry model developed by Garin. The model allocates basic employment to the zones of an urban area in order to minimize work and service trips. A hypothetical planning problem for Metropolitan Toronto illustrates use of the model.     

芦山“4·20”地震后宝兴县城打水沟泥石流发育趋势及防治方案

打水沟为宝兴河右岸的一级支流,位于宝兴县城城区,流域面积1.01 km2,主沟长度1.85 km,主沟比降640‰.受芦山“4·20”地震的影响,流域中下游直接引发了大量的崩滑体,加之地形陡峻,且位于青衣江-鹿头山暴雨区边缘,极容易发生泥石流.一旦发生泥石流,将会对沟口建筑和人员的安全造成巨大危害.通过对打水沟地震前后遥感影像的解译,结合野外考察,综合判定该沟为地震触发的潜在性泥石流沟.进一步分析估算,由于地震震动导致流域内发育6处崩塌体,总面积20375 m2,松散固体物质总量为15.20×l04m3.在分析泥石流形成条件与发展趋势的基础上,提出了打水沟泥石流减灾方案,并对泥石流排导槽梯形最佳过流横断面进行了设计.通过计算分析得到,在排泄设计标准的泥石流时,排导槽的最佳过流断面宽度为2.38 m,深度为2.23 m.