Integration and magnitude homogenization of the Egyptian earthquake catalogue

The aim of the present work is to compile and update a catalogue of the instrumentally recorded earthquakes in Egypt, with uniform and homogeneous source parameters as required for the analysis of seismicity and seismic hazard assessment. This in turn requires a detailed analysis and comparison of the properties of different available sources, including the distribution of events with time, the magnitude completeness, and the scaling relations between different kinds of magnitude reported by different agencies. The observational data cover the time interval 1900–2004 and an area between 22°–33.5° N and 25°–36° E. The linear regressions between various magnitude types have been evaluated for different magnitude ranges. Using the best linear relationship determined for each available pair of magnitudes, as well as those identified between the magnitudes and the seismic moment, we convert the different magnitude types into moment magnitudes M _W, through a multi-step conversion process. Analysis of the catalogue completeness, based on the M _W thus estimated, allows us to identify two different time intervals with homogeneous properties. The first one (1900–1984) appears to be complete for M _W ≥ 4.5, while the second one (1985–2004) can be considered complete for magnitudes M _W ≥ 3.     

Dynamic properties of green water event in the overtopping of extreme waves on a fixed dock

A statistical model is developed to predict wave overtopping volume and rate of extreme waves on a fixed deck. The probability density function for the volume and rate of overtopping water are formulated based on the truncated Weibull distribution with the assumption of local sinusoidal profile for small amplitude waves. Sensitivity to the wave nonlinearity parameter and deck clearance is discussed. The statistical model is compared to laboratory data of the instantaneous free surface elevation measured in front of a fixed deck, and overtopping volume and overtopping rate measured at the leading edge of the deck. The statistical theory compared well with the measured exceedance probability seaward of the deck. The model prediction of the exceedance probability of deck overtopping gave qualitatively good agreement for large overtopping values.     

1990年12月14日台湾强震的预报判据

本文运用福建省沿海气象要素的异常变化,作台湾省的中、短期地震预报,取得了成功的效果。采用长乐历年各月14时最低气压的距平值,作台湾省未来4～7个月内出现强震的预报依据,并采用热异常进行短临跟踪。当秋冬季节连续4d 长乐、福州、台北的气温均比广州累计高出10℃时,预报未来1～5d 台湾省出现7级强震。又根据近百年来台湾发生的强震,统计其活动季节,得到近20年来7级地震发生的时间,绝大部分在9～12月。     

The depletion of oil

The trend of previous estimates of the world's ultimate recovery of oil suggests a figure of 1650 BBO, of which 1438 BBO have been discovered and 978 BBO remain to be produced. Some large reported reserve figures are questioned. Importance is attached to the mid-point of depletion when rising production tends to give way to decline. The share of the world's supply coming from six Middle East countries is set to continue to rise from its 1986 low of 16% to as much as 50% by 2010, with the likely consequence of higher oil prices and serious political implications. The world is rapidly approaching a turning point when it has to face the consequences of an irreversible decline in oil production.     

Probabilistic Models for the Probability of Wave Breaking and Whitecap Coverage Based on Kinematic Breaking Criterion

More and more researches show that neither the critical downward acceleration nor the critical slope of water waves is a universal constant. On the contrary, they vary with particular wave conditions. This fact moders the models either for the probability of wave breaking B or for the whitecap coverage W based on these criteria difficult to apply. In this paper and the one which follows we seek to develop models for the prediction of both B and W based on the kinematical criterion. First, several joint probabihstic distribution functions (PDFs) of wave characteristics are derived, based on which the breaking properties B and W are estimated. The estimation is made on the assumption that a wave breaks ff the horizontal velocity of water particles at its crest exceeds the local wave celerity, and whitecapping occurs in regions of fluid where water particles travel faster than the waves. The consequent B and W depend on wave spectral moments of orders 0 to 4.Then the JONSWAP spectrum is used to represent the fetch-limited sea waves in deep water, so as to relate the probahility of wave breaking and the whitecap coverage with wind parameters. To this end, the time-averaging technique proposed by Glazman (1986) is applied to the estimation of the spectral moments involved, and furthermore, the theoretical models are compared with available observations collected from published literature. From the comparison, the averaging time scale is determined. The final models show that the probability of wave breaking as well as the whitecap coverage depends on the dimensionless fetch. The agreement between these models and the database is reasonable.     

Evaluation of long-term extreme response statistics of jack-up platforms

This paper is concerned with the models appropriate for the dynamic assessment of jack-ups, concentrating particularly on the long-term response due to random ocean waves and on work-hardening plasticity models used for spud-can response. A methodology for scaling of short-term statistics, calculated using a Constrained NewWave technique, is shown in a numerical experiment for an example jack-up and central North Sea location. The difference in long-term extreme response statistics due to various footing assumptions is emphasised. Results for two environmental load conditions are described (one excluding and one including wind and current effects) and the role of sea-state severity in the variation of short-term extreme response statistics is also highlighted.     

深圳大鹏湾表层沉积物碎屑矿物空间分布特征

立足样品测试数据,利用空间分析、空间插值、地质统计以及景观生态学方法,深入分析了深圳大鹏湾表层沉积物碎屑矿物的空间分布特征,并使用球状模型对相应半变异函数进行理论建模。结果表明,碎屑矿物分布的Hurst分维数为0.28～0.97,空间几何分维数为1.03～1.72;Moran Ⅰ型空间自相关系数-0.15～0.53。在此基础上,以等值线分布所包围范围作为划分尺度,以Shannon-Wiener信息指数作为度量,得到的矿物分布所反映出的信息量或者富集程度指数为0.88～1.85。