虎皮鹦鹉夜叫声量异常与地震关系的分析

本文根据江苏省东台市Ｊｉａｎｇ港农场综合地震测报点微观观测虎皮鹦鹉的实验资料，详细介绍了１９８５年以来记录到的两次地震前鹦鹉异常反应。并对观测条件和方法、资料的可靠性、异常指标的确定，地震前兆异常与非震异常特征及其鉴别方法等分别作了介绍和讨论，还对动物的微观观测可能成为监视地震的一种有希望的短临前兆手段，进行了估评。     

由岩体失稳讨论地震前兆的复杂性

断层带应变弱化——失稳的地震模式表明,岩体失稳不仅取决于作用的应力水平,而且决定于应变弱化阶段中环境刚度和岩石刚度的相对大小。该模式可能被应用去解释实际观测中出现异常,而其后不发生地震活动的复杂情况。     

Spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters in the Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya and adjacent regions: Implication for future seismic hazard

The study deals spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters like annual and 100-years mode along with their 90% probability of not being exceeded (NBE) in the Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya and adjoining regions. For this purpose, we applied a straightforward and most robust method known as Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution of extreme values (GIII). A homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue during the period 1900–2010 with magnitude M_W ⩾ 4.0 is utilized to estimate these earthquake hazard parameters. An equal grid point mesh, of 1° longitude X 1° latitude, is chosen to produce detailed earthquake hazard maps. This performance allows analysis of the localized seismicity parameters and representation of their regional variations as contour maps. The estimated result of annual mode with 90% probability of NBE is expected to exceed the values of M_W 6.0 in the Sulaiman–Kirthar ranges of Pakistan and northwestern part of the Nepal and surroundings in the examined region. The 100-years mode with 90% probability of NBE is expected to exceed the value of M_W 8.0 in the Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya with Caucasus mountain belt, the Sulaiman–Kirthar ranges of Pakistan, northwestern part of the Nepal and surroundings, the Kangra–Himanchal Pradesh and Kashmir of India. The estimated high values of earthquake hazard parameters are mostly correlated with the main tectonic regimes of the examined region. The spatial variations of earthquake hazard parameters reveal that the examined region exhibits more complexity and has high crustal heterogeneity. The spatial maps provide a brief atlas of the earthquake hazard in the region.     

Granule ripples in the Kumtagh Desert,China: Morphology,grain size and influencing factors

Granule ripples are found mainly in four regions of the Kumtagh Desert in China; they are characterized by an asymmetrical shape, with gentle lower slopes on both sides and abrupt crests. The ripples tend to be oriented perpendicular to the prevailing winds, except when they form near obstacles such as yardangs. The wavelengths (λ) range between 0·31 m and 26 m and heights (h) range from 0·015 m to 1 m. The relationship between wavelength and height can be described by a simple linear function, and the mean ripple index (λ/h) is about 20·4 for the study sites. The sediments are poorly sorted, with negative to very negative skewness at lee and stoss slopes and between‐ripple troughs, which confirms the ‘poured in’ and ‘shadow’ appearance described by previous researchers. The bimodal or trimodal distributions of grains (with modes of ?1·16φ, ?0·5φ and 3·16φ) and the enrichment of coarse particles at the ripple surface (with coarse granule contents ranging between 5·2% and 62·1%) indicate that the underlying layer is the original sediment source and that the granule ripples resist erosional processes. Although the impact of saltating particles and, consequently, the creep and reptation of coarse grains are responsible for granule ripple initiation at a micro‐scale, however, the characteristics of local sediments, wind regimes and topographical obstacles, as well as the feedbacks among bedform and airflow, more strongly affect the development and alignment of granule ripples at a macro‐scale.     

地震灾害风险评估及减灾策略研究——以贵州罗甸县为例

为探究贵州省地震灾害风险薄弱环节,减轻地震灾害风险,以贵州省罗甸县为示范,采用地震危险性概率分析方法对各乡镇进行危险性分析,开展地震灾害承灾体现场抽样调查,通过层次分析法和问卷调查的方式,首次构建乡镇级别的地震灾害风险和减灾能力指标体系,评估各乡镇地震灾害综合指数和程度,计算各乡镇地震灾害风险指数,确定红水河镇为高风险区、罗悃镇为中风险区、木引等7个乡镇为低风险区,并从建筑物设防、地震地质灾害及水库地震等角度剖析罗甸县地震灾害特点,从农村危房改造、移民搬迁、地质灾害防护及交通等方面提出减小地震灾害风险的建议。     

Sq发电机电流的UT变异性及其地面磁场的重建

本文用不同经度的7对中低纬台站水平磁场分量H,求得1965年随世界时（UT）变化的S_q指数（一种描述S_q电离层发电机电流强度的地磁指数）.结果表明,S_q发电机电流不仅有显著的逐日变化,而且有很大的UT变化.UT变化主要表现在电流总强度的强弱和电流涡焦点纬度移动两方面,这意味着决定发电机过程的太阳潮汐风场和电离层电导率随UT而变.用求得的S_q指数重新构造出的S_q变化与观测值符合得较好,它不仅显示出S_q幅度逐日变化的特点,而且还能复现出S_q形态的某些逐日变异性.     

地震活动的随机标度和非线性标度律

把地震作为一个复杂系统,研究了地震活动的随机性质．当不考虑震级范围时,全球地震活动、人震的余震和区域震群均有以幂次律为特征的长尾现象．地震的强度由震级确定,具有一特定震级的地震可形成一个地震活动系列,很多这样的地震活动系列就形成具有各种震级的地震的集合．不同地震系列间的统计特征由随机标度来表征,随机标度表明了由地震震级分类的不同地震系列间统计时刻的标度关系．为了统一地方、区域和全球地震活动性的统计特性,引入了非线性标度率．     

模拟地震的弹簧滑块模型的混沌运动

我们构造了一种自由度为２的双弹簧滑块系统，讨论模型参数的不均匀性和滑块间的相互作用与复杂现象的关系。假定滑块在所受力小于其静摩擦力时保持静止，因此，只有发生了滑动，两滑块所受力之差才改变。如果我们以两滑块受力之差为变量，就可以构造一种一维的映射。这种映射直观地显示了系统的演化，反映了方程终态解的形态。结果表明，用混沌运动来描述地震现象可能是较为合理的。     

形变,应变短临前兆标志体系的应用研究

文献「３」中给出了标志体系的整体框架结构和各标志的内容，本文讨论标志体系的进一步应用问题。首先讨论了异常信息合成的几种形式，然后根据标志体系的特点，给出了前兆追踪分析的方案；最后将专家系统的有关理论瑟形变应变前兆标志体系相结合，给出了一个地震预报专家系统的逻辑结构。     

Discussion on the Relation Between the Probabilistic Distribution of Magnitude in a Seismic Province and That in an Area with Potential Seismic Source

According to the joint probabilistic distribution model of magnitude and space,the author discusses the relationship between the probabilistic distribution of magnitude in a seismic province and that in an area with potential seismic sources.The results show that if the magnitude probabilistic distribution follows the truncated exponential form in a seismic province,there must be some potential source in which the magnitude probabilistic distribution does not conform to that form.The result is consistent with the concept of "characteristic earthquake" derived from the study of actual records of seismicity and the study of geology.The author suggests that the relationship between the probabilistic distribution of magnitude in a seismic province and that in a seismic potential area must be considered in the study of the analysis of seismicity,seismic zonation and engineering seismology,for the purpose of the evaluation of the probabilistic distribution of magnitude correctly in every area with potential s