Application of Astronomic Time-latitude Residuals in Earthquake Prediction

After the earthquake (Ms = 6.1) occurred in Luquan county of Yunnan province on April 18, 1985, the relationship between major earthquakes and astronomical time-latitude residuals (ATLR) of a photoelectric astrolabe in Yunnan Observatory was analyzed. ATLR are the rest after deducting the effects of Earth’s whole motion from the observations of time and latitude. It was found that there appeared the anomalies of the ATLR before earthquakes which happened in and around Yunnan, a seismic active region. The reason of the anomalies is possibly from change of the plumb line due to the motion of the groundmass before earthquakes. Afterwards, using studies of the anomalous characters and laws of ATLR, we tried to provide the warning information prior to the occurrence of a few major earthquakes in the region. The significant synchronous anomalies of ATLR of the observatory appeared before the earthquake of magnitude 6.2 in Dayao county of Yunnan province, on July 21, 2003. It has been again verified that the anomalies possibly provide the prediction information for strong earthquakes around the observatory.     

Seismic amplifications from offshore to shore

The objective of this study is to determine numerical estimations of seismic amplifications of waves traveling from offshore to shore considering the effect of sea floor configurations. According to the Boundary Element Method, boundary elements were used to irradiate waves and density force can be determined for each element. From this hypothesis, Huygens’ Principle is implemented since diffracted waves are constructed at the boundary from which they are radiated and this is equivalent to Somigliana's theorem. Application of boundary conditions leads to determine a system of integral equations of Fredholm type of second kind, which is solved by the Gaussian method. Various numerical models were analyzed, a first one was used to validate the proposed formulation and some other models were used to show various ideal sea floor configurations to estimate seismic amplifications. Once the formulation was validated, basic slope configurations were studied for estimating spectra of seismic amplifications for various sea floor materials. In general terms, compressional waves (P-waves) can produce seismic amplifications of the incident wave in the order of 2–5. On the other hand, distortional waves (S-waves) can produce amplifications up to 5.5 times the incident wave. A relevant finding is that the highest seismic amplifications due to an offshore earthquake are always located near the shore-line and not offshore despite the seafloor configuration.     

我国抗震防灾研究的发展及其作用

我国是一个地震灾害严重的国家之一。为抵御地震对人民生命财产和国家经济的破坏,使得抗震防灾研究显得尤为必要。本文主要从工程角度,简要介绍了我国抗震防灾研究的历史、现状、前沿问题及未来发展,并且阐述了抗震防灾研究在我国社会主义经济建设中的重要性。     

汶川地震引发高速远程滑坡运动机理数值模拟研究——以谢家店子滑坡为例

针对汶川地震引发的谢家店子滑坡,在现场调查分析的基础上,建立了二维离散元数值模拟模型,采用2D-Block软件对其进行了全过程的数值模拟研究,并通过对跟踪块体的深入分析,研究了相应地质体在不同阶段下的运动特征。模拟结果表明,谢家店子滑坡经历了剧动启程抛掷阶段、快速撞击飞行阶段、铲刮减速碎屑流阶段及堆积掩埋阶段。为了揭示地震引发高速滑坡的发生规律,分别研究了地震震级、斜坡地形和斜坡上岩块的尺寸对高速滑坡启动和运动过程的影响规律。地震震级对边坡的启动、变形、破坏和运动有很大的影响,地震震级越大,滑体启动的加速度和速度也就越大,从而易形成高速远程滑坡。斜坡体本身的地形地貌对滑体运动也有较大影响。在震级和岩石力学参数一定的条件下,斜坡上岩块的大小对其启动、变形和运动过程有一定影响,随着岩块的增大,滑体运动的每个阶段历时都在减小,但当岩体十分破碎时,滑体虽然能够运动,但是很难发生抛掷。将地震滑坡的启动机理概括为积累变形效应、振荡启程效应和振荡加速效应。     

堰塞湖坝体稳定性研究现状及展望

2008年5月12日汶川发生里氏8.0级大地震,在灾区形成了30多个堰塞湖,严重威胁了下游人民群众的生命财产安全,引起了世人对堰塞湖坝体稳定的高度关注。本文在前人研究的基础上,从地形地貌、诱发原因、寿命三个方面总结了堰塞湖坝体形成及存在的机理。重点分析总结了目前堰塞湖坝体稳定性的研究进展,指出影响坝体稳定性的内因为堰塞坝的形态与规模、物质组成与结构,外因为堰塞湖湖水体积;总结了前人关于影响坝体稳定性的关键因素以及室内模型试验的研究成果。最后分析了目前研究存在的问题,展望了未来的研究方向。     

汶川地震遗迹旅游资源分类及特色评价

汶川地震造就了大量地震遗迹景观, 成为了地震科学研究及旅游开发活动的重要资源基础。对地震遗迹景观分类没有形成统一的认识, 广义与狭义视角并存, 两分法与一分法并现。充分考虑地震遗迹旅游资源成因及景观特征, 强调地震活动对地震遗迹旅游资源成景过程的影响及响应, 将其分为2个景观型, 4个景观域、6个景观段、13个景观元及若干典型地震遗迹景观; 重点介绍了北川县城地震遗址、都汶公路百花大桥、都江堰虹口深溪沟地表破裂、北川县唐家山堰塞湖、北川县城城西滑坡遗迹等典型地震遗迹旅游资源; 提炼出“国际意义的地质科学研究对象、全球吸引力的典型地震遗迹、国际品质的地震遗迹旅游资源开发条件、世界级震撼力的地震灾难性事件”四大特色。研究结论有利于地震遗迹旅游资源的保护及震区旅游恢复重建, 为高烈度山区地震专项旅游产品开发提供科学依据。     

Holocene beach deposits for assessing coastal uplift of the northeastern Boso Peninsula, Pacific coast of Japan

This paper presents a case study that assessed spatial variations in the tectonic uplift rates of beach deposits in the relict Kujukuri strand plain, situated on the northeastern coast of the Boso Peninsula, eastern Japan. The southern Boso Peninsula is tilted downward to the northeast due to plate subduction along the Sagami Trough. However, the cause of the northeastern coast uplift creating the relict strand plain is unclear, due to the absence of a Holocene raised marine terrace sequence. Elevations and ages of beach deposits were collected from drilled cores and ground-penetrating radar profiles along three shore-normal sections in the southern Kujukuri strand plain. From this, alongshore variations in the relative sea level since the mid-Holocene could be seen. These corresponded to north-to-northeast downward tilting at a rate of 0.4 m/ka for an interval 10 km and are concordant with the longer term tilting of the last interglacial marine terrace surrounding the plain. Although it is difficult to assess shore-normal variations of uplift based on the present dataset, the recognized tilting apparently continues to the tilting of the southern Boso Peninsula, implying the Sagami Trough probably affects the uplift of the Kujukuri coast.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987110000058

<正>The thermo-electric coefficients of twenty-six magnetite samples,formed either by magmatism or metamorphism,were tested by the thermo-electric instrument BHET—06.Results showed that the coefficient is of a constant value of about -0.05 mV/℃.It is emphasized that because every magnetite grain was tested randomly,the coefficient is independent of the crystallographic direction.This fact means the thermal voltage generated from a single magnetite crystal can be accumulated,and as a result a new thermo-electric field can arise when a gradient thermal field exists and is active within the earth's crust.Because magnetite is widespread in the earth's crust(generally appearing more in the middle-lower crust),there is more-than-random probability that the additional thermo-electric field can be generated when certain thermal conditions are fulfilled.We,therefore,used the thermo-electric effect of magnetite to study the mechanism responsible for the presence of abnormal geo-electric fields during earthquake formation and occurrence, because gradient thermal fields always exist before earthquakes.The possible presence of additional thermo-electric fields was calculated under theoretical seismological conditions,using the following calcu-lation formula:E= - 0.159(σ×△T×φ×ρ_2×[(h~2-2x~2)cosα+ 3hxsinα]/ρ_1(h~2 +x~2)~(5/2)).In the above formula,σis thermo-electric coefficient of magnetite,△T is the temperature difference acting on it,φis a sectional area on a block of magnetite vertically perpendicular to the direction of the thermal current.ρ_1 andρ_2 are the respective resistivities of magnetite and the crust,and h,α,and x,respectively,h is the depth of embedded magnetite block,αmeans the angle created by the horizontal line and ligature of the two poles of magnetite block,and x is the distance from observation point to projective center point of the magnetite block on earth surface.According to simulations calculated with this formula,additional thermo-electric field intensity may reach as high as n to n×10~2 mV/km.This field is strong enough to cause obvious anomalies in the background geo-electric field,and can be easy probed by earthquake monitoring equipment. Therefore,we hypothesize that geo-electric abnormalities which occur during earthquakes may be caused by the thermo-electric effect of magnetite.     

3D modeling of earthquake cycles of the Xianshuihe fault,southwestern China

We perform 3D modeling of earthquake generation of the Xianshuihe fault, southwestern China, which is a highly active strike-slip fault with a length of about 350 km, in order to understand earthquake cycles and segmentations for a long-term forecasting and earthquake nucleation process for a short-term forecasting. Historical earthquake data over the last 300 years indicates repeated periods of seismic activity, and migration of large earthquake along the fault during active seismic periods. To develop the 3D model of earthquake cycles along the Xianshuihe fault, we use a rate- and state-dependent friction law. After analyzing the result, we find that the earthquakes occur in the reoccurrence intervals of 400–500 years. Simulation result of slip velocity distribution along the fault at the depth of 10 km during 2694 years along the Xianshuihe fault indicates that since the third earthquake cycle, the fault has been divided into 3 parts. Some earthquake ruptures terminate at the bending part of the fault line, which may means the shape of the fault line controls how earthquake ruptures. The change of slip velocity and displacement at 10 km depth is more tremendous than the change of the shallow and deep part of the fault and the largest slip velocity occurs at the depth of 10 km which is the exact depth of the seismic zone where fast rupture occurs.     

南海海上搜救困难性评价

为保障船舶海上航行安全,结合GIS与模糊层次分析法,从海上搜救的自然环境和人文搜救力量2个方面选取9个因子建立海上搜救困难性评价模型,对南海海上搜救困难性进行评价。结果表明：1）自然环境影响下,南海海域搜救困难性具有“V”字形分布的特点,由东北向西南难度等级逐渐降低。2）在人文搜救力量影响下,南海海域的搜救困难性整体呈“东北－西南条带式”,难度最大的区域主要位于南海东北―西南的连线上,呈不规则环状向连线两侧递减。3）综合两方面因素,南海部分岛屿周围搜救难度偏高,主要受台风等恶劣天气及远离搜救基地的影响,而远海海域搜救难度在整体上为“东北－西南递减式”空间分布格局,最高和较高的区域由研究区东北延伸至西南,然后向西北、东南两侧递减。总体而言,南海研究区中近21.1%的海域搜救难度≥7级,仍需加强对搜救力量的部署与建设。