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241.
The arrival time difference for the AB branch of PKP from deep Tonga earthquakes is constant over years with a standard deviation
of ±0.05 seconds at seismographs located 10 to 50 km from each other. If published travel time curves are used to calculate
the relative residuals of PKP the standard deviation from the constant mean is improved by approximately 0.01 seconds for
AB branch data. For the BC branch, standard deviations of relative travel times of ±0.06 seconds are reduced to less than
±0.05 seconds by calculating relative residuals. We conclude that changes of crustal transit time forP-waves could be resolved, based on careful PKP arrival time measurement at two or more neighboring stations if the changes
exceed 0.05 sec and last for more than one year. The conditions for achieving this result are that PKP from Tonga earthquakes
is clearly recorded, and that time-keeping is accurate. The data on which these conclusions are based were obtained from the
Graefenberg seismograph array, which is located in West Gemany and consists of 13 stations separated by distances of 10 km
to 100 km. We propose that relative arrival times of PKP from Tonga could be used in the Mediterranean - Middle East area
to search for precursory travel time changes before large earthquakes. 相似文献
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243.
Imtiyaz A. Parvez 《Natural Hazards》2007,40(2):397-412
The Bayesian extreme-value distribution of earthquake occurrences has been used to estimate the seismic hazard in 12 seismogenic
zones of the North-East Indian peninsula. The Bayesian approach has been used very efficiently to combine the prior information
on seismicity obtained from geological data with historical observations in many seismogenic zones of the world. The basic
parameters to obtain the prior estimate of seismicity are the seismic moment, slip rate, earthquake recurrence rate and magnitude.
These estimates are then updated in terms of Bayes’ theorem and historical evaluations of seismicity associated with each
zone. From the Bayesian analysis of extreme earthquake occurrences for North-East Indian peninsula, it is found that for T = 5 years, the probability of occurrences of magnitude (M
w = 5.0–5.5) is greater than 0.9 for all zones. For M
w = 6.0, four zones namely Z1 (Central Himalayas), Z5 (Indo-Burma border), Z7 (Burmese arc) and Z8 (Burma region) exhibit high
probabilities. Lower probability is shown by some zones namely␣Z4, Z12, and rest of the zones Z2, Z3, Z6, Z9, Z10 and Z11
show moderate probabilities. 相似文献
244.
Results of an extensive numerical study on the 2D scattering of seismic waves by local topography are presented. The investigation has been conducted using the direct boundary element method. Several types of topography (slopes, canyons and ridges) are considered. The influences of some key parameters, such as exciting frequency and geometry of the irregular feature, on surface ground motion are studied in detail. It is found that local topographic conditions play an important role in the modification of seismic ground motion at the irregular feature itself and its neighbourhood. The present results can be considered to be useful from the viewpoint of earthquake engineering and seismology. 相似文献
245.
Yang Guohua 《中国地震研究》2007,21(3):269-280
In order to track the space-time variation of regional strain field holistically(in a large scale) and to describe the regional movement field more objectively,the paper uses a nonlinear continuous strain model focused on extracting medium-low frequency strain information on the basis of a region with no rotation.According to the repeated measurements(1999~2001~2004) from GPS monitoring stations in the Sichuan and Yunnan area obtained by the Project of "China Crust Movement Measuring Network",and with the movement of 1999~2001(stage deformation background) as the basic reference,we separated the main influencing factors of the Kunlun Mountain M-S8.1 earthquake in 2001 from the data of 2001 and 2004,and the results indicate:(1) the Kunlun Mountain M-S8.1 earthquake has a discriminating effect on the Sichuan and Yunnan area,moreover,the deformation mode and background had not only certain similitude but also some diversity;(2) The movement field before the earthquake was very ordinal,while after the earthquake,order and disorder existed simultaneously in the displacement field;The displacement quantities of GPS monitoring stations were generally several millimeters;(3) The principal strain field before earthquake was basically tensile in an approximate EW direction and compressive in the SN direction,and tension was predominant.After the earthquake,the principal strain field in the Sichuan area was compressive in the EW direction and tensile in the SN direction,and the compression was predominant.In the Yunnan area,it was tensional in the NE direction and compressive in the NW direction,and tension was predominant;(4) The surficial strain before the earthquake was dominated by superficial expansion,the contractive area being located basically in the east boundary of Sichuan and Yunnan block and its neighborhood.After the earthquake,the Sichuan area was surface contractive(the further north,the greater it was),and south of it was an area of superficial expansion.Generally speaking,the Kunlun Mountain M-S8.1 earthquake played an active role in the accumulation of energy in the Sichuan and Yunnan area.Special attention shall be focused on the segment of Xichang-Dongchuan and its neighborhood. 相似文献
246.
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248.
文章从如何做好防震减灾科普知识的宣传与培训教育工作,提高群众在地震发生时的自救、互救能力和抢险救灾能力等方面进行了论述,并提出了相应的想法和建议。对切实提高社会公众防灾减灾的能力、普及防震减灾知识有一定的参考价值。 相似文献
249.
从"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"的角度讨论了世纪之交地震预测预报研究的国际进展。"统计预测"包括地震预测预报方法的统计检验、"统计地震学",以及统计物理在地震预测预报中的应用;"经验预测"包括搜索可能的前兆异常的尝试、建立将可能的前兆异常现象与地震孕育过程联系起来的简单模型、发现对地震预测预报研究具有重要意义的新现象,以及地球介质变化的动态监测试验;"物理预测"包括地震孕育和发生的物理模型、地震断层带性质的观测和实验研究,以及对震源的直接探测和钻探。讨论了"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"之间的关系,对"把经验预测或统计预测变成物理预测"的发展战略提出质疑。 相似文献
250.