A review of rock mechanics studies in the United States pertinent to earthquake prediction

Premonitory phenomena such as dilatancy, creep, acoustic emission, and changes in seismic velocity and attenuation, electrical resistivity, magnetic moment, and gas emission, which occur before fracture of initially intact rock and before stick-slip on faults or between finely ground surfaces of rock, have been reviewed and discussed in relation to earthquake prediction. This review is restricted to the results of laboratory experiments that have been carried out in the United States of America.     

Mineralogy and physical nature of clay gouge

Fault gouges have been observed in the surface outcrops, in shallow excavations, and in deep (300 meters below the surface) tunnels and mines in fault zones. The 2-microns fractions in these fault gouges may compose a few percent to more than fifty percent of the total mass in the outcrops, and the mineralogy of the 2-microns fractions consists of a variety of clays (the common ones are montmorillonite, illite, kaolinite, chlorite, vermiculite and mixed-layer clays) and some quartz, feldspars, etc.Although we cannot yet conclude directly from the studies of gouges that similar gouges exist at depths where many large shallow earthquakes are generated, there is a strong possibility that they do, based on (1) available equilibrium data on various clays — for example, kaolinite has been found to exist at 4 kb and 375°C (±15°C) (Thompson, 1970) and montmorillonite + kaolite has been found to exist at 450°C and 4 kb (Velde, 1969); (2) the compatibility of laboratory velocity data in gouge (Wang et al., 1977) with those in a model for central California (Healy andPeake, 1975); (3) the capability of clays to undergo sudden earthquake-like displacements (Summers andByerlee, 1977); (4) the petrology of intrafault cataclastic rocks in old fault zones (Kasza, 1977); and (5) the compatibility of gouge mineralogy with the mineralogy of hydrothermal clay deposits.If clay gouges are indeed significant components of the fault zone at depth, then the mechanical properties of clays under confining pressures up to 4 kb are important in the behavior of faults. Very few experiments have been performed under such high pressures. But from the physical makeup of clays, we can infer that (1) the range of possible behavior includes stable sliding with vermiculite and montmorillonite (asByerlee andSummers, 1977, have proven) to stick-slip-like behavior with kaolinite, chlorite, etc.; (2) the absence or presence of water will greatly affect the strengths of gouges — it is possible that water may reduce the strength of gouge to a fairly small value.     

Transient creep and semibrittle behavior of crystalline rocks

We review transient creep and semibrittle behavior of crystalline solids. The results are expected to be pertinent to crystalline rocks undergoing deformation in the depth range 5 to 20 km, corresponding to depths of focus of many major earthquakes. Transient creep data for crystalline rocks at elevated temperatures are analyzed but are poorly understood because of lack of information on the deformation processes which, at low to moderate pressure, are likely to be semibrittle in nature. Activation energies for transient creep at high effective confining pressure are much higher than those found for atmospheric pressure tests in which thermally-activated microfracturing probably dominates the creep rate. Empirical transient creep equations are extrapolated at 200° to 600°C, stresses from 0.1 to 1.0 kbar, to times ranging from 3.17×10² to 3.17×10⁸ years. At the higher temperatures, appreciable transient creep strains may take place but the physical significance of the results is in question because the flow mechanisms have not been determined. The purpose of this paper is to stimulate careful research on this important topic.     

Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: Seismic potential for major boundaries

The theory of plate tectonics provides a basic framework for evaluating the potential for future great earthquakes to occur along major plate boundaries. Along most of the transform and convergent plate boundaries considered in this paper, the majority of seismic slip occurs during large earthquakes, i.e., those of magnitude 7 or greater. The concepts that rupture zones, as delineated by aftershocks, tend to abut rather than overlap, and large events occur in regions with histories of both long- and short-term seismic quiescence are used in this paper to delineate major seismic gaps.In detail, however, the distribution of large shallow earthquakes along convergent plate margins is not always consistent with a simple model derived from plate tectonics. Certain plate boundaries, for example, appear in the long term to be nearly aseismic with respect to large earthquakes. The identification of specific tectonic regimes, as defined by dip of the inclined seismic zone, the presence or absence of aseismic ridges and seamounts on the downgoing lithospheric plate, the age contrast between the overthrust and underthrust plates, and the presence or absence of back-arc spreading, have led to a refinement in the application of plate tectonic theory to the evaluation of seismic potential.The term seismic gap is taken to refer to any region along an active plate boundary that has not experienced a large thrust or strike-slip earthquake for more than 30 years. A region of high seismic potential is a seismic gap that, for historic or tectonic reasons, is considered likely to produce a large shock during the next few decades. The seismic gap technique provides estimates of the location, size of future events and origin time to within a few tens of years at best.The accompanying map summarizes six categories of seismic potential for major plate boundaries in and around the margins of the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean, South Sandwich and Sunda (Indonesia) regions for the next few decades. These categories range from what we consider high to low potential for being the site of large earthquakes during that period of time. Categories 1, 2 and 6 define a time-dependent potential based on the amount of time elapsed since the last large earthquake. The remaining categories, 3, 4, and 5, are used for areas that have ambiguous histories for large earthquakes; their seismic potential is inferred from various tectonic criteria. These six categories are meant to be interpreted as forecasts of the location and size of future large shocks and should not be considered to be predictions in which a precise estimate of the time of occurrence is specified.Several of the segments of major plate boundaries that are assigned the highest potential, i.e., category 1, are located along continental margins, adjacent to centers of population. Some of them are hundreds of kilometers long. High priority should be given to instrumenting and studying several of these major seismic gaps since many are now poorly instrumented. The categories of potential assigned here provide a rationale for assigning prorities for instrumentation, for future studies aimed at predicting large earthquakes and for making estimates of tsunami potential.Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory Contribution No. 2906.     

The spatial and temporal changes inV p /V s before strong earthquakes in Kamchatka

A method was developed to obtain from a signal station the spatial and temporal distribution ofV _p /V _s ratios before earthquakes of magnitude>6. It was shown thatV _p /V _s values strongly depend upon the relative positions of the stations, the future large earthquake and the foci of the smaller earthquakes used forV _p /V _s determination. The appearance of a zone of anomalousV _p /V _s values with linear dimensions of the order of 100 km was noted at least 4 years before a deep earthquake of magnitude 7. Similar size anomalous zones were detected one year before some magnitude 6 earthquakes. V _p /V _s values decreased by a small but distinct amount during this time. Additionally, local short term minima inV _p /V _s ratios were observed some months before the major event. The epicenters of the large earthquakes were located within the 100 km size zone where the gradients of theV _p /V _s field were largest.     

An algorithm for the optimum distribution of a regional seismic network — II. An analysis of the accuracy of location of local earthquakes depending on the number of seismic stations

Summary Seven optimal networks consisting of 4 to 10 stations are compared for a given region, where velocity-depth profiles and the distribution of seismic intensity are known. Assuming that the standard error of arrival time is _t =0.05 s and the standard errors of the parameters of velocity-depth profiles are equal to 5% of their values, the average standard errors of the origin time and focus coordinates are estimated. The application of optimum methods to the planning of seismic networks in the Lublin Coal Basin is presented, and maps of standard errors of origin time , depth and epicenter ( _xy ) for the case of an optimum network of 6 seismic stations are given.     

山西数字与模拟地震台网的资料对比研究

山西数字遥测地震台网于2000年10月1日投入考核运行，为使数字遥测地震台网与模拟地震台网测定的时、空、强地震参数顺利接轨，尽快发挥数字资料在日常工作中的效益，将山西数字遥测地震台网产出的资料与模拟地震台网产出的资料作了全面细致的对比分析，研究了它们之间的相关程度、一致性、差异性。结果表明，数字地震观测系统比模拟地震观测系统具有更高的拴震率，得出山西数字遥测地震台网产出的资料与模拟地震台网产出资料相关性较好、定位结果在误差范围之内、符合《数字地震及前兆观测技术规范》要求的结论。     

新疆巴楚-伽师6.8级地震极灾区砖结构房屋震害特点及分析

重点介绍了新疆巴楚—伽师6.8级地震极灾区琼库尔恰克乡政府所在地砖结构房屋的破坏情况。选择有代表性的建筑物,根据现场测绘、调查的资料,从建筑、结构及施工等方面参照相关国家标准分析震害原因,总结抗震经验,提出满足抗震设计一般规定和采取简单构造措施,即能保障砖结构房屋的抗震性能。     

2013年岷县漳县6.6级地震前地震b值异常特征研究

本文利用1990年以来的甘肃测震台网资料, 计算获得2013年岷县漳县6.6级地震前邻区地震b值和Δb值的空间图像。 结果表明, 该6.6级地震发生在甘东南地区显著低b值异常区域的边缘, 且震前邻区地震Δb值异常显著。 从岷县漳县6.6级地震与低b值空间分布关系来看, 该地震的发生并未降低该区域的强震危险性。     

地震波预报方法在青海地区的应用

回顾和总结了地震波方法在青海省地震预报工作中的研究应用情况,提出了影响该方法应用的问题,介绍了利用数字地震波形资料开展研究的优点,同时也介绍了深入开展地震波研究的新方法。