2006年甘肃文县5.0级地震灾害损失评估

2006年6月21日在甘肃省文县发生MS5.0地震,造成了建筑物破坏及人员伤亡。在震后开展的地震现场考察与震害评估工作中,将灾区分为2个评估子区,完成了29个点的震害抽样调查工作,根据地震灾害损失评估系统EDLES2.5的要求建立了有关数据库,做出了经济损失评估,并针对灾害特点给出了灾区恢复重建的建议。     

统计预测、经验预测、物理预测——近期国际地震预测预报研究的启示

从"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"的角度讨论了世纪之交地震预测预报研究的国际进展。"统计预测"包括地震预测预报方法的统计检验、"统计地震学",以及统计物理在地震预测预报中的应用;"经验预测"包括搜索可能的前兆异常的尝试、建立将可能的前兆异常现象与地震孕育过程联系起来的简单模型、发现对地震预测预报研究具有重要意义的新现象,以及地球介质变化的动态监测试验;"物理预测"包括地震孕育和发生的物理模型、地震断层带性质的观测和实验研究,以及对震源的直接探测和钻探。讨论了"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"之间的关系,对"把经验预测或统计预测变成物理预测"的发展战略提出质疑。     

EM Monitoring of Crustal Processes Including the Use of the Network-MT Observations

There are several kinds of coupling mechanisms which can convert mechanical, chemical or thermal energies due to seismic or volcanic activities into electromagnetic energies. As a result of concentrated efforts in laboratory and theoretical research, the basic relationship between the intensity of electromagnetic sources and changes in mechanical, chemical and thermal state is becoming established. Also with the progress of the electromagnetic simulation techniques, it has been possible to evaluate in situ sensitivity. Based on this progress and also due to extensive improvement in measuring techniques, many field experiments have been performed to elucidate subsurface geophysical processes underlying the preparation stage, onset, and subsequent healing stage of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. In volcanic studies, many studies have reported the measurement of electromagnetic signals which were successfully interpreted in terms of various driving mechanisms. Although there have been numerous reports about the existence of precursory electromagnetic signals in seismic studies, only a few of them could be successfully explained by the proposed mechanisms, whereas coseismic phenomena are often consistent with those mechanisms including the absence of detectable signals. In many cases, one or two orders of higher sensitivity were required, especially for precursory signals. Generally, electromagnetic methods are more sensitive to near-surface phenomena. It will be necessary to discriminate electromagnetic signals due to these near-surface sources, which often possess no relationship with the crustal activities. Further efforts to enhance in situ sensitivity through improvements in observation techniques and in data processing techniques are recommended. At the same time, multi-disciplinary confirmation against the validity of electromagnetic phenomena will inevitably be necessary. A Network-MT observation technique has been developed to determine large-scale deep electrical conductivity structure. In the method, a telephone line network or purpose-built long baseline cables are utilized to measure voltage differences with long electrode separations. Because of the averaging effect of the electric fields, static shift problems due to small-scale, near-surface lateral heterogeneities can be alleviated. Several field experiments revealed regional scale deep electrical conductivity structures related to slab subduction or its stagnation, which enable us to elucidate underlying physical processes caused by the slab motion. The technique can also be applied to monitor the electric potential field related to crustal activities. The annual variation of the potential field and electrical conductivity in the French Alps were interpreted to be caused by the annual variation of lake water level. The method was also used to monitor the regional scale spatio-temporal variation of the SP field and electrical conductivity before and at the onset of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.     

闽台地震速报技术研究

本文通过系统地分析台网正式运行以来记录到主要的网内、网缘、网外地震的各种震相特征和定位参数 ,总结研究各区的震相特征、台站记录状况和震级的误差 ,力争提高台网地震速报的速度和精度。     

福州、小陶地震速报技术研究

本文通过分析福州、小陶地震的波形记录及各种定位参数 ,总结了该地区的震相特征和各台的震级情况 ,结合地震速报的规程 ,提出了对这两个地区地震速报的建议。     

吉林红石蓄能电站区域稳定性研究

以有关规范为基础，分别从区域、近区域和场址区三个尺度对吉林红石蓄能电站场址的稳定性作了评价。从地质构造、新构造、火山、地震等方面来分析，区域和近区域均是稳定的，场址区内虽有5条断裂构造发育并有发生轻微崩塌和泥石流等灾害的可能，但不会对场址产生的影响，因而场址区也是稳定的。     

华北地区地磁前兆异常特征的研究

通过多种分析方法对华北近三十年来的中强地震前的地磁异常进行分析，发现地震的孕育、发生在时空分布上与地磁场的变化有一定的相关性。震中距200km范围内，中强地震前很多站都出现变幅不等的地磁异常变化，异常时间多数在一年内。异常形态多趋势性上升或趋势性下降。     

华北地区震群活动的阶段性特征

通过对华北地区1970年以来震群活动的分析表明，唐山地震的震群活动显示出一定的迁移性和阶段性。应用流变介质包体孕震模型的理论进行了初步力学分析。张北地震的预测检验表明，震群活动的迁移性与阶段性对强震的中期预测具有一定指导意义。     

辽宁岫岩5.4级地震临震预测

简要介绍了1999年11月29日辽宁岫岩Ms5.4地震成功预报的震前主要预测依据及基本思路。通过对震前辽宁地区地震中短期危险性的分析，确定辽南地区是未来主震的危险地区。根据地震活动的区域特性及岫岩偏岭震群活动的规律，判定岫岩震群的前震性质。利用地震活动性参数计算结果和震前在震中及邻近地区出现前兆短临异常的统计分析，进一步论述了震前预测地震三要素的基本依据。     

景泰5.9级地震后大地电磁跟踪监测研究

介绍了2000年6月6日景泰Ms5.9地震后，在该区进行的大地电磁跟踪监测结果。在监测时段内所观测的视电阻率随时间没有大的变化，在观测误差范围内有较好的可重复性。据此判定震后一段时间内发生较大地震的可能性不大。判定结果与实际情况相符。