Earthquake strong motion simulated by stress drop models

Shallow strike slip earthquakes on vertical faults are modelled as two-dimensional antiplane strain ruptures in a uniformly prestressed homogeneous halfspace. Behind the rupture front, which is specified, the stress drops to a lower value. The elastodynamic boundary value problem is solved with a finite difference method. Several cases are studied, which include symmetric and one-directional rupture propagation, surface faulting, multiple events, variable rupture velocity, sticking and rebreaking of the fault plane. The time function of displacement, velocity and acceleration are interpreted as signals generated by events in the focus, namely starting, stopping and breaking through the surface of the rupture. The model explains peak velocity and peak acceleration in the near field of M5.5–6 earthquakes; which are typically about 0.2 m/s and 5 m/s² at 10 km epicentral distance, if the rupture velocity is close to the shear wave velocity. Sticking of the fault does not alter the accelerograms significantly, but it increases the seismic moment in simple events and decreases it in multiple events.Contribution No. 226, Geophysical Institute, University of Karlsruhe.     

山东水资源分析及趋势预测

通过分析近３９年山东省水资源的历史倾向性、阶段性、周期性,研究了水资源总量及径流量和地下水位的变化特征。结果表明,山东水资源量的年际变化大且呈快速下降态势,其中,地表径流量的下降尤为明显;水资源的变化存在一定的阶段性和周期性。通过分析降水与水资源的关系,发现两者的变化规律一致,但降水对水资源,特别是对地下水分量的影响有一定的持续性。建立均生函数预测模型,对未来水资源总量进行预测显示,１９９８￣２０     

1980～1994年台湾海峡两岸的地热涡与降水季度预报初探

利用１９８０～１９９４年大陆３．２ｍ深度和台湾３．０ｍ深度的地温资料,分析了１５ａ来的逐季地气图,统计了台湾海峡两岸的地热涡活动,发现平均每季有１个地热涡活动,其水平尺度比大陆内部的地热涡要小,生命史也要短,进入台湾地区的地热涡绝大多数是从西方和北方进入,其移动速度比大陆内部的要快得多。９０％以上的地热涡在同期有多雨区与其对应,热涡中心与多雨中心相距在１００ｋｍ以内者占６８％。最后给出了一个季度降水的定性预测方案,其步骤为：预报地热涡的中心位置、强度和水平尺度;推算降水正距平区的水平尺度、中心位置和强度;根据本区发生的地震等情况进行预报订正。     

北京暴雨与旱涝关系的分析

根据北京近百年的逐日降水资料,分析了汛期暴雨与汛期旱涝的关系。指出:汛期暴雨多少和强度对汛期降水丰歉具有决定性作用;在给出的3种暴雨指数中,相当暴雨日数与旱涝级别的相关性最好。文中还讨论了旱涝短期气候预测与暴雨过程的短期气候预测相结合的必要性。     

“地气图”方法用于省级旱涝预测的实践

简要介绍用“地气图”方法进行降水预测的基本思路,总结此方法的预报实践,指出省级尺度旱涝预测需要解决的几个关键问题,强调除加密观测外,上游地热涡增强的能量频散作用是下游地热涡发展的重要原因     

The spatial and temporal changes inV p /V s before strong earthquakes in Kamchatka

A method was developed to obtain from a signal station the spatial and temporal distribution ofV _p /V _s ratios before earthquakes of magnitude>6. It was shown thatV _p /V _s values strongly depend upon the relative positions of the stations, the future large earthquake and the foci of the smaller earthquakes used forV _p /V _s determination. The appearance of a zone of anomalousV _p /V _s values with linear dimensions of the order of 100 km was noted at least 4 years before a deep earthquake of magnitude 7. Similar size anomalous zones were detected one year before some magnitude 6 earthquakes. V _p /V _s values decreased by a small but distinct amount during this time. Additionally, local short term minima inV _p /V _s ratios were observed some months before the major event. The epicenters of the large earthquakes were located within the 100 km size zone where the gradients of theV _p /V _s field were largest.     

An algorithm for the optimum distribution of a regional seismic network — II. An analysis of the accuracy of location of local earthquakes depending on the number of seismic stations

Summary Seven optimal networks consisting of 4 to 10 stations are compared for a given region, where velocity-depth profiles and the distribution of seismic intensity are known. Assuming that the standard error of arrival time is _t =0.05 s and the standard errors of the parameters of velocity-depth profiles are equal to 5% of their values, the average standard errors of the origin time and focus coordinates are estimated. The application of optimum methods to the planning of seismic networks in the Lublin Coal Basin is presented, and maps of standard errors of origin time , depth and epicenter ( _xy ) for the case of an optimum network of 6 seismic stations are given.     

Numerical weather prediction relevant to the monsoon problem

In this short paper we have identified some of the modelling groups that have the capability of simulating or carrying out short range numerical weather prediction over the monsoon belt. We have next outlined some of the important and desirable ingredients for a multilevel primitive equation model over the tropics, with most of the emphasis on the present version of Florida State University's Tropical Prediction Model. Finally, we present briefly some important results based on the present version of our prediction models that relate to the NWP efforts over the monsoon belt. Here we have identified the importance of mountains, convection, the radiative heating balance of the earth's surface, and the planetary boundary layer over the Arabian Sea.     

A comparative study of extensive machine learning models for predicting long-term monthly rainfall with an ensemble of climatic and meteorological predictors

Rainfall prediction is of vital importance in water resources management. Accurate long-term rainfall prediction remains an open and challenging problem. Machine learning techniques, as an increasingly popular approach, provide an attractive alternative to traditional methods. The main objective of this study was to improve the prediction accuracy of machine learning-based methods for monthly rainfall, and to improve the understanding of the role of large-scale climatic variables and local meteorological variables in rainfall prediction. One regression model autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and five state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, including artificial neural networks, support vector machine, random forest (RF), gradient boosting regression, and dual-stage attention-based recurrent neural network, were implemented for monthly rainfall prediction over 25 stations in the East China region. The results showed that the ML models outperformed ARIMA model, and RF relatively outperformed other models. Local meteorological variables, humidity, and sunshine duration, were the most important predictors in improving prediction accuracy. 4-month lagged Western North Pacific Monsoon had higher importance than other large-scale climatic variables. The overall output of rainfall prediction was scalable and could be readily generalized to other regions.     

Application of Astronomic Time-latitude Residuals in Earthquake Prediction

After the earthquake (Ms = 6.1) occurred in Luquan county of Yunnan province on April 18, 1985, the relationship between major earthquakes and astronomical time-latitude residuals (ATLR) of a photoelectric astrolabe in Yunnan Observatory was analyzed. ATLR are the rest after deducting the effects of Earth’s whole motion from the observations of time and latitude. It was found that there appeared the anomalies of the ATLR before earthquakes which happened in and around Yunnan, a seismic active region. The reason of the anomalies is possibly from change of the plumb line due to the motion of the groundmass before earthquakes. Afterwards, using studies of the anomalous characters and laws of ATLR, we tried to provide the warning information prior to the occurrence of a few major earthquakes in the region. The significant synchronous anomalies of ATLR of the observatory appeared before the earthquake of magnitude 6.2 in Dayao county of Yunnan province, on July 21, 2003. It has been again verified that the anomalies possibly provide the prediction information for strong earthquakes around the observatory.