A Study of Seismicity and Earthquake Hazard at the Proposed Kalabsha Dam Site,Aswan, Egypt

High and Aswan Dams Authority (HADA) proposed a plan aiming at constructing a rockfill dam in the Kalabsha area, about 60 km south of Aswan High Dam. The aim of this dam is to restrain the overflow of water to the Kalabsha Valley for keeping one billion cubic meters from being lost due to seepage and evaporation. The safety of dams during earthquakes is extremely important because failure of such a structure may have disastrous consequences on life and property. Therefore, different factors were considered as part of a site assessment. Five seismic source zones, close enough to the site to give rise to potentially damaging earthquake ground motions, were identified. Seven active faults that have the potential for producing significant earthquakes and that pass through or near the dam site were also identified. The earthquake loading represented by ground motions at the site was evaluated. Probabilistic seismic hazard procedures were used for assessing the earthquake loading at six individual sites using Area-and Line-Source Models (ASM & LSM). The ASM is based on current observed seismicity, whereas the LSM is based on geological slip rates. The output represents the expected acceleration amplitude with 90 percent probability of not being exceeded in exposure times of 20, 50, and 100 years. The results from the two models appear to be different, the expected ground motions from ASM were twice as high as expected from LSM. This difference is due to the load of the Aswan reservoir (Nasser Lake) triggering earthquakes on those parts of the faults that lie under the lake at Kalabsha area. The hazard at the selected sites is given by the hazard curve that is represented by the relationship between the peak ground acceleration and its annual exceedance probability. By comparing the curves for the six individual sites for the same source model, it can be concluded that the potential ground acceleration level for all the sites is almost the same. Considering the mean results from the two models, the annual exceedance probability of the expected ground acceleration from ASM is approximately ten times higher than the annual exceedance probability from LSM.Since ASM is based on current seismicity, it is more appropriate forrepresenting the actual hazard for the dam site.     

龙门山前山断裂大地震原地重复发生的地质地貌证据

龙门山前山断裂大地震是原地重复发生的吗？针对这一问题,对前山断裂的同震地表形变带进行了追踪,并选择5.12汶川地震区九龙、白鹿以及汉旺等3个地点开展了古地震探槽研究工作。调查结果是： 前山断裂5.12地震地表形变带基本沿1 ∶200000地质图上先存基岩断裂发育,但仅限于通济－安昌以南段; 白鹿－八角一带同震地表形变带继承先存断层陡坎或断层沟谷发育; 偏离先存断裂而被一些学者视为断裂全新世活动重要证据的永安附近T1阶地上线性陡坎实为废弃河岸; 白鹿、汉旺探槽剖面揭示这两个地点5.12汶川地震之前至少有过一次古地震事件。这些研究结果表明前山断裂大地震是沿晚第四纪活动断裂原地重复发生的,此次地震是沿先存活动断裂又一次发生的大地震事件,为大地震原地复发模型提供了一个新的震例支持。在沿该断裂周边进行规划建设时应当合理避让。     

2008年汶川地震(Ms8.0)非对称同震破碎带的确定:来自WFSD-1随钻流体的证据

地震过程中相当可观的一部分能量消耗于裂隙的活化与形成,来自汶川地震断裂带科学钻探一号孔(WFSD-1)的随钻流体表明,地震新形成的裂隙对应有较强的流体异常,它们为流体的入侵提供了良好的通道。随钻流体呈非对称性分布于主滑移面的两侧,主要的流体异常带集中在主滑移带下方须家河组顶部120 m范围内,该带中气体的含量以及变动的频率明显高于上部相同的宽度范围以及下部沉积岩层,来自地球物理测井的资料同样显示这一带破碎严重并伴随有大量水的侵入,暗示汶川地震形成的裂隙具有非对称性分布的特征。这一特征可能同时受控于断裂上盘彭灌杂岩与下盘须家河组岩层的力学性质差异以及地震破裂过程中形成的非对称性应力分布。     

面向地震巨灾保险的建筑特性快速提取方法

房屋建筑分类是抗震设计和地震风险分析的基础,是巨灾保险的纽带环节,也是结构易损性准确、完备分析的前驱保障,快速获取建筑特性参数非常关键。基于影像数据获取结构特性相比传统手段具有显著优势,然而其准确性具有一定挑战性,从影像数据得到实时的、较准确的结构特性成为地震保险数据获取技术的关注焦点。本文采用深度学习方法开展从影像数据中提取面向地震保险需求的建筑特性数据,构建基于深度学习方法的建筑高度识别模型和基于机器视觉的建筑高度识别方法,运用基于Xception神经网络深度学习和机器视觉的模型,对北京地区的建筑高度进行模型测试,该方法可为地震保险分析提供重要的基础数据支持。     

Seismic vulnerability of Kuwait and other Arabian Gulf countries: information base and research needs

This paper points to the need for seismic risk and vulnerability assessment of infrastructure systems, most notably tall structures and coastal facilities, in Kuwait and other Arabian Gulf countries. Building codes in the region currently lack seismic provisions, despite evidence of a potential threat from large-magnitude earthquakes originating from the southern part of the Zagros fold belt. The historical record of Iranian earthquakes that may have caused significant ground motion in the Gulf region is examined, as are reports of coastal damage from tsunamis. Various specific tasks, expected to constitute research priorities of a Joint Center for Risk Research, a cooperative research program involving Princeton and Kuwait Universities, are outlined.     

Post-earthquake economic resilience and recovery efficiency in the border areas of the Tibetan Plateau: A case study of areas affected by the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake in Sichuan,China in 2008

Journal of Geographical Sciences - The border areas of the Tibetan Plateau and the neighboring mountainous areas have a high incidence of earthquakes with a magnitude greater than Ms 5.0, as well...     

Simulation of Tsaoling landslide, Taiwan, based on Saint Venant equations over general topography

The 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake triggered the catastrophic Tsaoling landslide in Taiwan. The geomorphological change measured from the data of the 1989 and 2000 aerial photos reveals that the scar and deposit volumes are about 0.126 km³ and 0.15 km³ respectively. The debris material ran over a distance of 1.6 km with 500 m descent in elevation. In this paper, we use the continuum model of hydraulic flow, SHALTOP^2D, based on the equations of Bouchut and Westdickenberg to simulate numerically the landslide dynamics. When the mass is moving, the flow is assumed hydrostatic with a basal Coulomb friction. The best fit is obtained using the basal friction angle equal to 6°, the only parameter of the simulation, uniformly applied in the calculation domain. The landslide front reaches the Chinshui river valley, the foothill of the slope, within only about 25 s after initiation and the motion settles in about 113 s. The maximum speed is estimated 75 m/s. The spreading of the deposit agrees well with the field measurement.     

Age estimates of coastal terraces in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and their tectonic implications

The great Indian Ocean earthquake of December 26, 2004 caused significant vertical changes in its rupture zone. About 800 km of the rupture is along the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, which forms the outer arc ridge of the subduction zone. Coseismic deformation along the exposed land could be observed as uplift/subsidence. Here we analyze the morphological features along the coast of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, in an effort to reconstruct the past tectonics, taking cues from the coseismic effects. We obtained radiocarbon dates from coastal terraces of the island belt and used them to compute uplift rates, which vary from 1.33 mm yr^− 1 in the Little Andaman to 2.80 mm yr^− 1 in South Andaman and 2.45 mm yr^− 1 in the North Andaman. Our radiocarbon dates converge on  600 yr and  1000 yr old coastal uplifts, which we attribute to the level changes due to two major previous subduction earthquakes in the region.     

Gradient theory of nucleation in polar fluids

Gradient theory (GT), a form of density functional theory (DFT), was applied to water, methanol, and ethanol using the cubic perturbed hard body (CPHB) equation of state (EOS). Compared to the standard form of classical nucleation theory (CNT), the GT results for water showed an improved temperature dependence, but the supersaturation dependence was slightly poorer. GT and several forms of CNT were also found to be in good agreement with a single high T molecular dynamics rate for TIP4P water. The rates predicted by GT for methanol and ethanol were improved by several orders of magnitude compared to CNT, but no improvement in the predicted temperature dependence of the rates was found.     

汶川地震引发高速远程滑坡运动机理数值模拟研究——以谢家店子滑坡为例

针对汶川地震引发的谢家店子滑坡,在现场调查分析的基础上,建立了二维离散元数值模拟模型,采用2D-Block软件对其进行了全过程的数值模拟研究,并通过对跟踪块体的深入分析,研究了相应地质体在不同阶段下的运动特征。模拟结果表明,谢家店子滑坡经历了剧动启程抛掷阶段、快速撞击飞行阶段、铲刮减速碎屑流阶段及堆积掩埋阶段。为了揭示地震引发高速滑坡的发生规律,分别研究了地震震级、斜坡地形和斜坡上岩块的尺寸对高速滑坡启动和运动过程的影响规律。地震震级对边坡的启动、变形、破坏和运动有很大的影响,地震震级越大,滑体启动的加速度和速度也就越大,从而易形成高速远程滑坡。斜坡体本身的地形地貌对滑体运动也有较大影响。在震级和岩石力学参数一定的条件下,斜坡上岩块的大小对其启动、变形和运动过程有一定影响,随着岩块的增大,滑体运动的每个阶段历时都在减小,但当岩体十分破碎时,滑体虽然能够运动,但是很难发生抛掷。将地震滑坡的启动机理概括为积累变形效应、振荡启程效应和振荡加速效应。