A statistical procedure for the analysis of seismotectonically induced hydrochemical signals: A case study from the Eastern Carpathians, Romania

Changes in the stress field of an aquifer system induced by seismotectonic activity may change the mixing ratio of groundwaters with different compositions in a well, leading to hydrochemical signals which in principle could be related to discrete earthquake events. Due to the complexity of the interactions and the multitude of involved factors the identification of such relationships is a difficult task. In this study we present an empiric statistical approach suitable to analyse if there is an interdependency between changes in the chemical composition of monitoring wells and the regional seismotectonic activity of a considered area. To allow a rigorous comparison with hydrochemistry the regional earthquake time series was aggregated into an univariate time series. This was realized by expressing each earthquake in form of a parameter “e”, taking into consideration both energetic (magnitude of a seismic event) and spatial parameters (position of epi/hypocentrum relative to the monitoring site). The earthquake and the hydrochemical time-series were synchronised aggregating the e-parameters into “earthquake activity” functions E, which takes into account the time of sampling relative to the earthquakes which occurred in the considered area. For the definition of the aggregation functions a variety of different “e” parameters were considered. The set of earthquake functions E was grouped by means of factor analysis to select a limited number of significant and representative earthquake functions E to be used further on in the relation analysis with the multivariate hydrochemical data set. From the hydrochemical data a restricted number of hydrochemical factors were extracted. Factor scores allow to represent and analyse the variation of the hydrochemical factors as a function of time. Finally, regression analysis was used to detect those hydrochemical factors which significantly correlate with the aggregated earthquake functions.This methodological approach was tested with a hydrochemical data set collected from a deep well monitored for two years in the seismically active Vrancea region, Romania. Three of the hydrochemical factors were found to correlate significantly with the considered earthquake activities. A screening with different time combinations revealed that correlations are strongest when the cumulative seismicity over several weeks was considered. The case study also showed that the character of the interdependency depends sometimes on the geometrical distribution of the earthquake foci. By using aggregated earthquake information it was possible to detect interrelationships which couldn't have been identified by analysing only relations between single geochemical signals and single earthquake events. Further on, the approach allows to determine the influence of different seismotectonic patterns on the hydrochemical composition of the sampled well. The method is suitable to be used as a decision instrument in assessing if a monitoring site is suitable or not to be included in a monitoring net within a complex earthquake prediction strategy.     

行星磁场与卫星引力及其相对运动的统计关系

从知道某些天体具有磁场起，人们就对其磁场的起源提出种种解释，例如有电池说，转子说，化石说，发电机说等等。但由于这些学说都分别与某些观测事实相抵触而未被公认，因此星球磁场的起源一直是未能解决的命题。余先河先生提出，星球的磁场起源可能与所受的引力有关，行星的磁场强度正比于其所受卫星的引力；正比于卫星与行星的引力连线转动的相对角速度。本文对这两方面的命题分别进行了相关分析，得到其相关系数分别为：ｒ＝０．８４８１和ｒ＝０．８４２５，它们都在ａ＝０．０１的信度水平上相关。结果表明余新河关于行星磁场起源的设想是有基础的。本文还对其统计结果和可能机制进行了讨论。     

历史地震资料与地震的中长期预测

故障诊断模型的基本内容是根据动态系统的外部特征来判断系统内部是否发生故障及确定故障发生的部位、时间和大小。由于故障诊断技术在监测及诊断故障的思路上和地震预报有很多相似之处，因此，把故障诊断技术应用于地震预报是可行的。由于该模型与其他数学模型一样，需要有较多的学习过程，所以历史地震资料在该模型中有重要作用。而其中的鲁棒性故障诊断模型在抑制各子模型的个性，凸现其共性方面有其特有的性质，所以把它作为一种综合模型，能抑制各子模型的个性，突出在地震预测方面的共性，从而提高预测的精确性。本文根据一个实例，说明了这种综合性模型的可行性。在文章的最后，由信息量的分析，说明了模型的鲁棒性特征。     

Modelling of ground motion in the vicinity of massive structures

A two-dimensional elastic Chebyshev spectral element method (SPEM) is used to model the seismic wavefield within a massive structure and in its vicinity. We consider 2-D models where a linear elastic structure, with quadrangular cross-section, resting on an elastic homogeneous half-space, is impinged upon by the waves generated by a surface impulse at some distance. The scattering of Rayleigh waves and the response of the structure are extensively analysed in a parametric way, varying size, mechanical parameters and shape of the load. Some of the models considered are representative of embankments and earth dams. The simulation shows that some models resonate, storing part of the incoming energy. With realistic parameters, the lowest resonance frequency is due to pure shear deformation and is controlled by the shear velocity and height of the load. Flexural modes are excited only at higher frequencies. The acceleration at the top of the structure may be five/seven times higher than at the base, depending on the mass of the structure. The gradual release of trapped energy produces a ground roll lasting several seconds after the wave front has passed. The ground-roll amplitude depends on the sturcture's mass and can be as large as 30% of the peak acceleration. Outside resonance conditions, the ground motion is almost unaffected by the presence of the artefact; the horizontal motion on top of it is nearly twice the motion at ground level. Similar results should be expected when the incident field is an upcoming shear wave. A qualitative discussion shows that the presence of anelastic attenuation in the embankment does not significantly alter the preceding conclusions, unless it is of very low values (e.g. Q < 15).The modelling results that we discuss indicate that the soil-structure interaction may substantially alter the ‘free-field’ ground motion. From a practical point of view, the main conclusions are: (1) careful analysis is necessary when interpreting seismic records collected in the vicinity of large artefacts; (2) seismic hazard at a site may depend on the presence of man-made structures such as embankments, dams, tall and massive buildings.     

识别天然地震和人工爆破的判据选择

从快速识别事件性质的要求出发,分析了天然地震和人工爆破的发震时间,P波初动方向,P波、S波振幅比值,P波、S波最大振幅与尾波持续时间比值等判据,得到P波初动方向和P最大振幅与S最大振幅比值是识别爆破和地震的两个有效判据,为研制“识别天然地震和人工爆破的分类决策支持系统”提供了应用依据.     

Earthquake strong motion simulated by stress drop models

Shallow strike slip earthquakes on vertical faults are modelled as two-dimensional antiplane strain ruptures in a uniformly prestressed homogeneous halfspace. Behind the rupture front, which is specified, the stress drops to a lower value. The elastodynamic boundary value problem is solved with a finite difference method. Several cases are studied, which include symmetric and one-directional rupture propagation, surface faulting, multiple events, variable rupture velocity, sticking and rebreaking of the fault plane. The time function of displacement, velocity and acceleration are interpreted as signals generated by events in the focus, namely starting, stopping and breaking through the surface of the rupture. The model explains peak velocity and peak acceleration in the near field of M5.5–6 earthquakes; which are typically about 0.2 m/s and 5 m/s² at 10 km epicentral distance, if the rupture velocity is close to the shear wave velocity. Sticking of the fault does not alter the accelerograms significantly, but it increases the seismic moment in simple events and decreases it in multiple events.Contribution No. 226, Geophysical Institute, University of Karlsruhe.     

Hazard-consistent earthquake scenarios

Earthquake-resistant design and seismic analysis often require the earthquake action to be represented in the form of acceleration time-histories. Real accelerograms can be selected based on matching an earthquake scenario, defined by magnitude and distance, and scaled if necessary. The scaled accelerograms should reflect the hazard in terms of the parameters that characterise the inelastic demand on structures, including response spectral ordinates, duration and energy content. In order to maintain realistic ground motions, the scaling factors should not differ greatly from unity. It is found that in many cases, where the hazard is influenced by more than one seismic source, it is impossible to define a single earthquake scenario that is compatible with the results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Even if a hazard-consistent scenario can be defined, there are difficulties encountered in using the results to select and scale real accelerograms.     

强地震动数据采集实时系统研究

本文介绍了GDQJ-2型强地震动数据采集实时系统的结构原理和技术性能,着重介绍了一个台网形式的数据采集实时系统数据的处理流程、系统软件的多线程处理、对串口和Modem的操纵方式、数据帧的构成和压缩方式等。该系统可用于强地震观测和工程振动测量。     

Amplification of in-plane seismic ground motion by group cavities in layered half-space (Ⅰ)

Amplification of in-plane seismic ground motion by underground group cavities in layered half-space is studied both in frequency domain and time domain by using indirect boundary element method (IBEM), and the effect of cavity interval and spectrum of incident waves on the amplification are studied by numerical examples. It is shown that there may be large interaction between cavities, and group cavities with certain intervals may have significant amplification to seismic ground motion. The amplification of PGA (peak ground acceleration) and its PRS (peak response spectrum) can be increased up to 45.2% and 84.4%, for an example site in Tianjin, under the excitation of Taft wave and El Centro wave; and group cavities may also affect the spectra of the seismic ground motion. It is suggested that the effect of underground group cavities on design seismic ground motion should be considered.     

Stable inversions for complete moment tensors

The seismic moment tensors for certain types of sources, such as volcanic earthquakes and nuclear explosions are expected to contain an isotropic component. Some earlier efforts to calculate the isotropic component of these sources are flawed due to an error in the method of Jost & Herrmann. We corrected the method after Herrmann & Hutchensen and found great improvement in the recovery of non-double-couple moment tensors that include an isotropic component. Tests with synthetic data demonstrate the stability of the corrected linear inversion method, and we recalculate the moment tensor solutions reported in Dreger et al. for Long Valley caldera events and Dreger & Woods for Nevada Test Site nuclear explosions. We confirm the findings of Dreger et al. that the Long Valley volcanic sources contain large statistically significant isotropic components. The nuclear explosions have strikingly anomalous source mechanisms, which contain very large isotropic components, making it evident that these events are not tectonic in origin. This indicates that moment tensor inversions could be an important tool for nuclear monitoring.