1990年12月14日台湾强震的预报判据

本文运用福建省沿海气象要素的异常变化,作台湾省的中、短期地震预报,取得了成功的效果。采用长乐历年各月14时最低气压的距平值,作台湾省未来4～7个月内出现强震的预报依据,并采用热异常进行短临跟踪。当秋冬季节连续4d 长乐、福州、台北的气温均比广州累计高出10℃时,预报未来1～5d 台湾省出现7级强震。又根据近百年来台湾发生的强震,统计其活动季节,得到近20年来7级地震发生的时间,绝大部分在9～12月。     

Rheological Properties and Incipient Motion of Cohesive Sediment in the Haihe Estuary of China

The Haihe cohesive sediment, which is typical in China, is studied systematically for its basic physical and incipientmotion properties. Following the requirements of dredging works in the Haihe Estuary, cohesive sediment samples weretaken from three locations. Laboratory experiments were conducted to determine the rheological properties of these sam-ples and to examine the incipient motion of the cohesive sediment. It is found that the cohesive sediment has an obviousyield stress τb, which increases with the mud density in a manner of an exponential function, and so does the viscosityparameter η. The cohesive sediment behaves like a Bingham fluid when its density is below 1.38 ～ 1.40 g/cm3, andwhen denser than these values, it may become a power-law fluid. The incipient motion experiment also revealed that theincipient velocity of the cohesive sediment increases with the density in an exponential manner. Therefore, the incipientmotion is primarily related to the density, which is different from the case for non-cohesive sediment in which the incipi-ent motion is correlated with the diameter of sand particles instead. The incipient motion occurs in two different ways de-pending on the concentration of mud in the bottom. For sufficiently fine particles and a concentration lower than1.20 g/cm3, the cohesive sediment appears as fluidized mud, and the incipient motion is in the form of instability of aninternal wave. For a higher concentration, the cohesive sediment appears as general quasi-solid-mud, and the incipientmotion can be described by a series of extended Shields curves each with a different porosity for newly deposited alluvial mud.     

Research on Characteristics of Density Current Under the Action of Waves

In this paper,the characteristics of density current under the action of waves are describedwith the help of flume experiment and theoretical analysis.The study shows that turbid water under the ac-tion of the waves can present three types of motion,i.e.significant stratification,fragile stratification andstrong mixing.The motion of turbid water presents significant stratification when(H/D)/△ρ/ρ~(1/2)≤4.5,generally this state is known as density current.The formulas of motionvelocity,thickness,and discharge of density current moving on horizontal bottom are derived by use of ba-sic equations such as momemtum equation,equation of energy conservation and continuity equation offluid.The time-average velocity and the thickness of density current under the action of waves have a rela-tionship with such parameters as relative density(△ρ/ρ),wave height(H),and water depth(D).Whenthese parameters are determined,the time-average thickness and motion velocity of density current are al-so determined.The relat     

长江口拦门沙地区的泥沙运动规律

依据１９８８年７月和１２月水文观测资料，通过流，盐，沙的综合分析，认识到长江口拦门沙地区的泥沙运动有与河口其他地区不同的特点，泥沙输移在水平面上和垂直面上存在着多种循环，潮流和盐水截留大量泥沙积聚的拦门沙地区，河口在盐淡水交锋地带，除了涨，落急时段外，发现在转流时期泥沙也可能产生再悬浮，从而形成一个潮周期中出现３次或４次再悬浮的特殊规律。     

Experimental studies on the slowly varying drift motion of a berthed container ship model

The effects of free-surface waves on the floating structures are of great importance in the offshore industry. Among the six degrees of motions of a surface ship the absence of restoring forces in surge, sway and yaw led to critical situations for moored ships in the recent times. The order of forces in horizontal plane and their exciting frequencies are matters of interest. The resonance with the presence of moored chains led to many accidents in the recent past. The lines in dry conditions may not give good damping and in wet condition they may trigger the system to chaotic motions and jumps. Two different loading conditions of a container ship model are tested with waves in laboratory conditions in two different drafts. The mooring lines are chosen as per scale law and the energy under the response spectrum is determined from the plots. The results give new insights into the movement of a berthed ships subjected to waves. Response of the moored ship to different loading conditions in different water depths are discussed in this paper. The paper gives the order of energy due to first-order and slowly varying movement of a berthed container model in a towing tank.     

Comparison of two three-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling systems for coastal tidal motion

A comparison of two three-dimensional numerical modeling systems for tidal elevations and velocities in the coastal waters is presented. The two modeling systems are: (1) the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) and (2) the MIKE 3 flow model. The model performance results for Singapore's coastal waters show that the predicted tidal elevations from the two hydrodynamic modeling systems are almost identical and are in very good agreement with field measurement data. The simulated tidal current velocities match well with field measurement data at the selected stations, but it seems that the POM provides the slightly better simulation, compared to the MIKE 3 flow model. The depth profiles of the velocities obtained from the two modeling systems may be greatly different at some time, due to the vertical diffusion coefficient calculated from different turbulent sub-models in the two modeling systems. The POM generally predicts larger peak tidal velocities. The maximum speed differences for the model results from the two modeling systems occur in the top and differ from time to time and from location to location, reaching up to 20%.     

厄尔尼诺的发生与行星运动

厄尔尼诺(El Ni(?)o)现象是海-气耦合系统异常变化的表现,其起因可能不是唯一的,行星运动对地球运动的影响可能会导致El Ni(?)o的发生。根据4个半世纪内El Ni(?)o发生的历史资料,分析其发生和行星运动的关系,得出的结论是:木星赤纬的变化和火星大冲与El Ni(?)o。的发生有显著的关系,表明这2颗行星的运动可能影响El Ni(?)o的发生。文中还根据分析结桌和El Ni(?)o混沌机制的观点,探讨了行星运动对海-气系统变化的影响机制。     

汶川抗震救灾的基础地理信息综合应急服务

在5．12汶川特大地震抗震救灾中,国家测绘部门设计和组织实施了以数据成果服务、专用系统服务和专题制图服务为核心的基础地理信息综合应急服务。其是针对汶川震区地形特点和抗震救灾主体工作需求,快速整合和提供震区已有的基础测绘成果和最新遥感影像资料;快速搭建集震区海量数据集成管理为一体并具备3维影像浏览、对比分析等功能的专用地理信息系统,为灾情评估分析和重建规划研究提供地理空间数据集成展示和分析平台;应需地制作反映受灾范围、受灾程度、救灾响应、规划思路等的各类专题地图和地图集,有效地表达地震灾害的时空分布、重建规划布局等。     

汶川地震山地灾害遥感快速提取及其分布特点分析

针对泥石流滑坡灾害体特有的物质组成与活动特点,通过比较分析其在不同遥感影像的光谱特征差异,选择ETM+影像作为主要数据源,提取湿度指数与绿度指数,利用ETM+的穗帽变换、影像差值增强、密度分割和掩膜技术建立了泥石流滑坡山地灾害快速提取模型,并用于汶川地震.通过灾害体的提取,分析了本次地震山地次生灾害的分布规律,利用空间叠加进行了成因的分析.本次地震山地灾害具有如下特点:(1)沿主要地表破裂带分布;(2)山地灾害主要出现在8度-9度地震烈度区,随着烈度的降低,山地灾害的总面积也相应的减少;(3)山地灾害主要发生在海拔高度1000-2500m的地带;(4)主要发生在坡度20°-50°之间的边坡上;(5)地震及余震期间以崩塌滑坡滚石为主,后期以泥石流滑坡为主;(6)具有河流左右两岸呈不对称分布等特点.结果表明,利用ETM+影像建立基于湿度指数与绿度指数的快速提取模型,对于大规模泥石流滑坡提取效果较好,进行大区域山地灾害的遥感快速提取是可行的.