地下水宏观异常与强震临震预报

阐述了如何利用地下水宏观异常作强烈地震的临震预报，详细叙述了利用地下水宏观异常预报地震三要素的方法。     

热力强迫对越赤道气流产生和维持的作用——定性分析

从原始方程出发，应用大气运动的对称反对称性理论，就赤道地区一呈偶极子分布的反对称冷热源对越赤道气流的形成和维持作用进行了定性分析。结果表明，非绝热加热的反对称分布对越赤道气流的影响是通过诱发和维持反对称的气压场分量来实现的。即在热源上空低层形成低压，高层形成高压；在热汇上空形成相反的气压场。这样，在赤道上空高、低层就将形成与相应气压梯度方向一致的越赤道气流     

辽宁西部地区地震前后重力异常反映

采用高精度拉科斯特重力仪在辽宁西部地区进行多期重力重复测量，获得了较为丰富的基础资料，通过对资料的分析与研究，进一步加深了辽宁西部地区重力场变化的认识。特别是１９９４年１０月和１９９６年７月，在测区内及其附近相继发生ＭＬ４．９级和ＭＬ５．０级地震。而这两次地震为１９８８年以来在辽宁西部地区发生的最大地震。通过对该区流动重力资料空间上和时间上的研究分析，从中获得了震前重力变化的某些前兆信息。通过对该     

震后预报的某些研究

通过研究华北北部中强以上地震震后地震活动，地形变、地电阻率、水化学和水位变化特征，给出了各单项方法识别震后效应与新地震异常的标志。为了综合判别震后短临异常变化是震后效应或新异常，研制了一套综合识别计算机程序系统，该系统考虑了已发生的强震序列类型，地震活动背景特征以及强震前后前兆短临异常变化形态，充分利用专家的知识与经验进行推理和判断。通过运行典型事例表明该系统功能较强，使用方便。系统的实现是专家系     

甘、宁、青地区地震孕育的力源环境

从3个方面讨论了甘、宁、青三省区地震孕育的力源环境。①从强震震源机制、地震形变带、断层滑移特征和现代形变、地应力实地测量等几个不同侧面，讨论了区域构适应力场的分布规律。指出，甘、宁、青现今区域构造应力场以水平为主，主压应力方向从地区的西部到东南部，由NNE逐渐转为近EW向，且在地壳的深部、浅部和地表，方向有较好的一致性。它是印度板块向青藏块体碰撞、挤压，使青藏块体向北东方向推济，同时向东蠕散的结果。②通过讨论发展断层的错动形式以及部分前兆资料所反映的应力特征，揭示了地震孕育过程中震源及周围地区处于一种更高的应力状态。这是该地区地震前兆具有普遍性的根本原因。③讨论了甘、宁、青现今地震的孕育方式。指出，6级以上地震基本上以先存断层重新活动或相互沟通为主要活动形式。     

永登5.8级地震前后的重力变化

着重分析了１９９５年７月２２日永登５．８级地震前后的重力异常变化及其与地震的对应关系，对这次地震的探讨性分析，进一步说明流动重力测量对一些较大地震作出一定的预报是可行的。     

The Zihuatanejo, Mexico, earthquake of 1994 December 10 (M= 6.6): source characteristics and tectonic implications

An analysis of the Zihuatanejo, Mexico, earthquake of 1994 December 10 ( M = 6.6), based on teleseismic and near-source data, shows that it was a normal-faulting, intermediate-depth ( H = 50 ± 5 km) event. It was located about 30 km inland, within the subducted Cocos plate. The preferred fault plane has an azimuth of 130°, a dip of 79° and a rake of −86°. The rupture consisted of two subevents which were separated in time by about 2 s, with the second subevent occurring downdip of the first. The measured stress drop was relatively high, requiring a Δσ of about a kilobar to explain the high-frequency level of the near-source spectra. A rough estimate of the thickness of the seismogenic part of the oceanic lithosphere below Zihuatanejo, based on the depth and the rupture extent of this event, is 40 km.
This event and the Oaxaca earthquake of 1931 January 15 ( M = 7.8) are the two significant normal-faulting, intermediate-depth shocks whose epicentres are closest to the coast. Both of these earthquakes were preceded by several large to great shallow, low-angle thrust earthquakes, occurring updip. The observations in other subduction zones show just the opposite: normal-faulting events precede, not succeed, updip, thrust shocks. Indeed, the thrust events, soon after their occurrence, are expected to cause compression in the slab, thus inhibiting the occurrence of normal-faulting events. To explain the occurrence of the Zihuatanejo earthquake, we note that the Cocos plate, after an initial shallow-angle subduction, unbends and becomes subhorizontal. In the region of the unbending, the bottom of the slab is in horizontal extension. We speculate that the large updip seismic slip during shallow, low-angle thrust events increases the buckling of the slab, resulting in an incremental tensional stress at the bottom of the slab and causing normal-faulting earthquakes. This explanation may also hold for the 1931 Oaxaca event.     

Upper Mississippi embayment shallow seismic velocities measured in situ

Vertical seismic compressional- and shear-wave (P-and S-wave) profiles were collected from three shallow boreholes in sediment of the upper Mississippi embayment. The site of the 60-m hole at Shelby Forest, Tennessee, is on bluffs forming the eastern edge of the Mississippi alluvial plain. The bluffs are composed of Pleistocene loess, Pliocene-Pleistocene alluvial clay and sand deposits, and Tertiary deltaic-marine sediment. The 36-m hole at Marked Tree, Arkansas, and the 27-m hole at Risco, Missouri, are in Holocene Mississippi river floodplain sand, silt, and gravel deposits. At each site, impulsive P- and S-waves were generated by man-made sources at the surface while a three-component geophone was locked downhole at 0.91-m intervals.

Consistent with their very similar geology, the two floodplain locations have nearly identical S-wave velocity (V_S) profiles. The lowest V_S values are about 130 m s⁻¹, and the highest values are about 300 m s⁻¹ at these sites. The shear-wave velocity profile at Shelby Forest is very similar within the Pleistocene loess (12 m thick); in deeper, older material, V_S exceeds 400 m s⁻¹.

At Marked Tree, and at Risco, the compressional-wave velocity (V_P) values above the water table are as low as about 230 m s⁻¹, and rise to about 1.9 km s⁻¹ below the water table. At Shelby Forest, V_P values in the unsaturated loess are as low as 302 m s⁻¹. V_P values below the water table are about 1.8 km s⁻¹. For the two floodplain sites, the V_P/V_S ratio increases rapidly across the water table depth. For the Shelby Forest site, the largest increase in the V_P/V_S ratio occurs at 20-m depth, the boundary between the Pliocene-Pleistocene clay and sand deposits and the Eocene shallow-marine clay and silt deposits.

Until recently, seismic velocity data for the embayment basin came from eartquake studies, crustal-scale seismic refraction and reflection profiles, sonic logs, and from analysis of dispersed earthquake surface waves. Since 1991, seismic data for shallow sediment obtained from reflection, refraction, crosshole and downhole techniques have been obtained for sites at the northern end of the embayment basin. The present borehole data, however, are measured from sites representative of large areas in the Mississippi embayment. Therefore, they fill a gap in information needed for modeling the response of the embayment to destructive seismic shaking.     

Recent Advances in Prediction and Processing of Strong Ground Motions

We present an overview of our recent results on utilizing small earthquakes in the earthquake engineering practice. Site-specific ground motion time-histories of large earthquakes can be successfully simulated using recordings of small earthquakes which are often referred to as 'empirical Green's functions' in seismology. Another important practical problem is whether and how these observations can be used in seismic risk studies which are based on empirical attenuation relations for ground motion parameters. We study a possibility of extrapolating attenuation relations for small earthquakes, to larger magnitudes using the data from the Garner Valley downhole array in Southern California. Finally we introduce efficient ground motion processing techniques in frequency- and time-domains and apply them to site response estimation.     

Seismic Ground Motion Expected for the Eastern District of Naples

The seismic ground motion of a test area in the eastern district of Naples is computed with a hybrid technique based on the mode summation and the finite difference methods. This technique allows us the realistic modelling of source and propagation effects, including local soil conditions. In the modelling, we consider the 1980 Irpinia earthquake, a good example of strong shaking for the area of Naples, which is located about 90 km from the epicenter.The detailed geological setting is reconstructed from a large number of drillings. The sub-soil is mainly formed by alluvial (ash, stratified sand and peat) and pyroclastic materials overlying a pyroclastic rock (yellow neapolitan tuff), representing the neapolitan bedrock. The detailed information available on mechanical properties of the sub-soil and its geometry warrants the application of the sophisticated hybrid technique.As expected, the sedimentary cover causes an increase of the signal's amplitudes and duration. If thin peat layers are present, the amplification effects are reduced, and the peak ground accelerations are similar to those observed for the bedrock model. This can be explained by the backscattering of wave energy at such layers, that tend to seismically decouple the upper from the lower part of the structure.For SH-waves, the influence of the variations of the S-wave velocities on the spectral amplification is studied, by considering locally measured velocities and values determined from near-by down-hole measurements. The comparison between the computed spectral amplifications confirms the key role of an accurate determination of the seismic velocities of the different layers.The comparison performed between a realistic 2-D seismic response and a standard 1-D response, based on the vertical propagation of waves in a plane layered structure, shows considerable difference, from which it is evident that serious caution must be taken in the modelling of expected ground motion at a specific site.