长江中游沙质河段床沙级配调整过程计算

三峡工程运用后,长江中游荆江河段持续冲刷,床沙与推移质、悬移质泥沙不断交换,从而造成该河段床沙发生不同程度的调整,对长江中下游河床演变及非平衡输沙机理的研究具有重要影响.在新水沙条件下,总结分析了沙波运动特性及床沙交换方式,引入Markov三态转移概率及非均匀沙隐暴系数,得到基于状态转移概率的沙质河段床沙级配调整的计算模型.研究结果表明:(1)20092014年,沙市站年内床沙中值粒径有先增大后减小的趋势,而监利站年内床沙中值粒径则先减小后增大,且荆江河段年际床沙中值粒径总体呈上升趋势,粗化程度约为6.9%~9.3%;(2)20092014年,沙市站床沙组成中粒径d<0.062 mm的泥沙所占比重不变,0.062 mm≤d<0.25 mm的泥沙所占比重逐年减少(累计减少11.4%),d≥0.25 mm的泥沙所占比重逐年增加(累计增加11.4%),而监利站床沙组成均存在波动性变化;(3)荆江河段床沙转换为推移质的概率随着泥沙粒径的增大而增大,床沙转换为悬移质的概率随着泥沙粒径的增大而减小,而推移质和悬移质转换为床沙的概率均随着泥沙粒径的增大而增大,河床发生冲刷粗化时泥沙输移的主要形式为悬移质(概率为81%~87%),而淤积细化时床沙补给主要来源于推移质(概率为8%~12%).通过验证,本文概率模型的计算结果与实测资料符合较好,能够应用于长江中游沙质河段年际床沙粗化及年内床沙级配调整过程预报,为进一步开展三峡工程下游非均匀悬移质泥沙沿程恢复机理的研究提供理论基础.     

Modeling unusual eruptive behavior of Mt. Etna,Italy, by means of event bush

One of the best-studied volcanoes of the world, Mt. Etna in Sicily, repeatedly exhibits eruptive scenarios that depart from the behavior commonly considered typical for this volcano. Episodes of intense explosive activity, pyroclastic flows, dome growth and cone collapse pose a variety of previously underestimated threats to human lives in the summit area of the volcano. However, retrospective analysis of these events shows that they were likely caused by the same very sets of premises and starting conditions as “normal” eruptions, yet combined in an unexpected, probably unique, way. To cope with such unexpected consequences, we involve an approach of artificial intelligence developed specially for needs of the geosciences, the event bush. Scenarios inferred from the event bush fit the observed ones and allow to foresee other low-probability events that may occur at the volcano. Application of the event bush provides a more impartial vision of volcanic phenomena and may serve as an intermediary between expert knowledge and numerical assessment, e.g., by means of Bayesian Belief Networks.     

Random vibration analysis of long-span structures subjected to spatially varying ground motions

On the basis of the pseudo-excitation method (PEM), a random vibration methodology is formulated for the seismic analysis of multi-supported structures subjected to spatially varying ground motions. The ground motion spatial variability consists of the wave passage, incoherence and site–response effects. Advantages of this method are that less computation effort is required and that the cross-correlations both between normal modes and between excitations are automatically included. Random seismic responses of a realistic long-span bridge due to the wave passage, incoherence and site–response effects are extensively investigated. It is shown that all these effects have significant influence on the seismic response of the structure.     

A new definition of strong motion duration and related parameters affecting the response of medium–long period structures

This study presents a new definition of the strong motion duration combining the alternative bracketed and significant duration definitions. Based on the time integral of the absolute ground velocity, a new index is defined, as cumulative absolute displacement (CAD), and used to estimate the strong motion duration. The proposed bracketed-significant duration t_bs is found to be well correlated with the strong motion part of the records, especially in the case of near-source events. The duration t_bs and the CAD index are used to assess the anticipated structural behavior of medium–long period structures.     

Quantifying the epistemic uncertainty in ground motion models and prediction

The aim of this paper is to compute the ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE)-specific components of epistemic uncertainty, so that they may be better understood and the model standard deviation potentially reduced. The reduced estimate of the model standard deviation may also be more representative of the true aleatory uncertainty in the ground-motion predictions.The epistemic uncertainty due to input variable uncertainty and uncertainty in the estimation of the GMPE coefficients are examined. An enhanced methodology is presented that may be used to analyse their impacts on GMPEs and GMPE predictions. The impacts of accounting for the input variable uncertainty in GMPEs are demonstrated using example values from the literature and by applying the methodology to the GMPE for Arias Intensity. This uncertainty is found to have a significant effect on the estimated coefficients of the model and a small effect on the value of the model standard deviation.The impacts of uncertainty in the GMPE coefficients are demonstrated by quantifying the uncertainty in hazard maps. This paper provides a consistent approach to quantifying the epistemic uncertainty in hazard maps using Monte Carlo simulations and a logic tree framework. The ability to quantify this component of epistemic uncertainty offers significant enhancements over methods currently used in the creation of hazard maps as it is both theoretically consistent and can be used for any magnitude–distance scenario.     

Response of a RC pile group in liquefiable soil: A shake-table investigation

Soil liquefaction induced by earthquakes frequently cause costly damage to pile foundations. However, various aspects of the dynamic behavior and failure mechanisms of piles in liquefiable soils still remain unclear. This paper presents a shake-table experiment conducted to investigate the dynamic behavior of a reinforced-concrete (RC) elevated cap pile foundation during (and prior to) soil liquefaction. Particular attention was paid to the failure mechanism of the piles during a strong shaking event. The experimental results indicate that decreasing the frequency and increasing the amplitude of earthquake excitation increased the pile bending moment as well as the speed of the excess pore pressure buildup in the free-field. The critical pile failure mode in the conducted testing configuration was found to be of the bending type, which was also confirmed by a representative nonlinear numerical model of the RC pile. The experimental results of this study can be used to calibrate numerical models and provide insights on seismic pile analysis and design.     

A semi-analytical method for predicting the outflow hydrograph due to dam-break in natural valleys

The paper presents a semi-analytical method for predicting the flow rate hydrograph due to a hypothetical sudden and total dam failure in a natural valley. The method generalizes the approach proposed by Hunt for the dam-break problem in a rectangular frictionless sloping channel to a valley with a cross-section area expressed by a power-law function of water depth, in order to take into account the most common shapes of natural valleys. The parameters of the deriving model can be set by exploiting data usually available concerning the dam section geometry and the reservoir storage-depth curve. The application of the technique to three different reservoirs is discussed. The results show that the flow rate hydrographs obtained at the dam site agree with the ones calculated by means of a finite volume numerical code based on two-dimensional shallow water equations. The method requires moderate computational and data collecting effort, so it can be regarded as a useful alternative to other procedures commonly adopted in the practice.     

图像重建块迭代算法中松弛参数选取的研究

在图像重建中,Landweber迭代算法是图像重建算法中的重要方法。本文将针对Landweber分块迭代算法中松弛参数的选取进行研究。在重建过程中采取对投影矩阵按投影角度分块的方法,选取特定的松弛参数。通过数值实验得出结论:对于按角度分块的块迭代算法,松弛参数选取为λ乘以块矩阵与其共轭转置矩阵乘积的最大特征值分之一,当采集完全投影数据,且λ接近(1/6)~(1/7)时效果最好。另外,本文按角度分块的做法和松弛参数的选取方法对于有限角度图像重建问题也是可行的。     

基于性能的地震工程研究的新进展及对结构非线性分析的要求

结合国际地震工程界提出的新一代基于性能的地震工程的框架方法,重点阐述了性能评估中涉及的主要问题。对性能评估使用的静力非线性分析、动力非线性分析方法进行了总结,在此基础上详细阐述了在基于概率的性能评估中有应用前景的增量动力分析方法的概念、相关问题及其应用,并简要介绍了基于增量动力分析思想提出的一些简化方法。最后提出了今后研究的建议,特别是结构非线性分析方面的研究重点。     

1970～1976年四川地震群测群防实践

记述了1970-1976年四川地震群测群防的兴起和发展,介绍了四川群测群防、专群结合预测预报地震的典型事例,特别对松潘—平武7.2级地震预测预报群测群防的作用作了反映。在此基础上,就这一时间四川群测群防、专线结合地震工作实践作了评析和认识。