Hydrologic precursors to earthquakes: A review

This review summarizes reports of anomalous flow rates or pressures of groundwater, oil, or gas that have been interpreted as earthquake precursors. Both increases and decreases of pressure and flow rate have been observed, at distances up to several hundred kilometers from the earthquake epicenter, with precursor times ranging from less than one day to more than one year. Although information that might rule out nontectonic causes does not appear in many published accounts of hydrologic anomalies, several recent studies have critically evaluated the possible influences of barometric pressure, rainfall, and groundwater or oil exploitation. Anomalies preceding the 1976 Tangshan, China, and the 1978 Izu-Oshima-Kinkai, Japan, earthquakes are especially well-documented and worthy of further examination.Among hydrologic precursors, pressure head changes in confined subsurface reservoirs are those most amenable to quantitative interpretation in terms of crustal strain. The response of pressure head to earth tides determines coefficients of proportionality between pressure head and crustal strain. The same coefficients of proportionality should govern the fluid pressure response to any crustal strain field in which fluid flow in the reservoir is unimportant. Water level changes in response to independently recorded tectonic events, such as earthquakes and aseismic fault creep, provide evidence that a calibration based on response to earth tides may be applied to crustal strains of tectonic origin.Several models of earthquake generation predict accelerating stable slip on part of the future rupture plane. If precursory slip has moment less than or equal to that of the impending earthquake, then the coseismic volume strain is an upper bound for precursory volume strain. Although crustal strain can be only crudely estimated from most reported pressure head anomalies, the sizes of many anomalies within 150 kilometers of earthquake epicenters appear consistent with this upper bound. In contrast, water level anomalies at greater epicentral distances appear to be larger than this bound by several orders of magnitude.It is clear that water level monitoring can yield information about the earthquake generation process, but progress higes on better documentation of the data.     

Downward migration of seismic activity prior to some great shallow earthquakes in Japanese subduction zones—a possible intermediateterm precursor

Before the 1944 Tonankai earthquake along the Nankai Trough, seismic activity increased in the shallow depths, and then the activity gradually migrated downwards. When it reached its limit (a depth of approximatelty 70 km), the main shock occurred. Several deep earthquakes, including one ofM5.3, occurred several months prior to the Tonankai earthquake. A similar downward migration pattern also can be recognized regarding the 1952 Tokachi-oki earthquake. In this case the deepest earthquakes reached about 400 km. This may be one of the intermediate-term precursory phenomena of great thrusttype earthquakes in subduction zones. Recent observations in the Tokai district along the Suruga Trough, where a large earthquake is expected to occur in the future, suggest a similar downward migration pattern in the land area.     

攀西古裂谷地区深部热流

在实测地表大地热流、岩石放射性元素含量以及生热率的基础上,作者计算了攀西古裂谷地区的深部热流值(q_r)及地壳上部放射性元素富集层厚度(D),即分别为38.4mw/m~2和15.7km。与世界上其它地区相比,本区具有较高的深部热流值和较大的D值。笔者进一步阐明,较大的D值是攀西古裂谷地区地壳分异程度差在地热上的反映,而较高的q_r值表明本区来自地壳深处上地幔的热量比较大,这与攀西古裂谷地区的整个地质发展历史相一致。     

广西弧形构造探讨

广西构造实为一弧形构造,它由四个并排的北东—北西向的轭状弧带所组成。每个弧带的前部,为坚硬的岩块所组成,所产生的断裂及岩浆活动对寻找与火成岩有关的矿产有一定意义。每个弧带的后部,产生盆地型沉积,有利于沉积矿产的形成。     

Mechanisms of seismic quiescences

In the past decade there have been major advances in understanding the seismic cycle in terms of the recognition of characteristic patterns of seismicity over the entire tectonic loading cycle. The most distinctive types of patterns are seismic quiescences, of which three types can be recognized:post-seismic quiescence, which occurs in the region of the rupture zone of an earthquake and persists for a substantial fraction of the recurrence time following the earthquake,intermediate-term quiescences, which appear over a similar region and persist for several years prior to large plate-rupturing earthquakes, andshort-term quiescences, which are pronounced lulls in premonitory swarms that occur in the hypocentral region hours or days before an earthquake. Although the frequency with which intermediate-term and short-term quiescences precede earthquakes is not known, and the statistical significance of some of the former has been challenged, there is a need, if this phenomena is to be considered a possibly real precursor, to consider physical mechanisms that may be responsible for them.The characteristic features of these quiescences are reviewed, and possible mechanisms for their cause are discussed. Post-seismic quiescence can be readily explained by any simple model of the tectonic loading cycle as due to the regional effect of the stress-drop of the previous principal earthquake. The other types of quiescence require significant modification to any such simple model. Of the possibilities considered, only two seem viable in predicting the observed phenomena, dilatancy hardening and slip weakening. Intermediate-term quiescences typically occur over a region equal to or several times the size of the rupture zone of the later earthquake and exhibit a relationship between the quiescence duration and size of the earthquake: they thus involve regional hardening or stress relaxation and agree with the predictions of the dilatancy-diffusion theory. Short-term quiescences, on the other hand, are more likely explained by fault zone dilatancy hardening and/or slip weakening within a small nucleation zone. Because seismicity is a locally relaxing process, seismicity should follow a behaviour known in rock mechanics as the Kaiser effect, in which only a very slight increase in strength, due to dilatancy hardening or decrease in stress due to slip weakening, is required to cause quiescence. This is in contrast to other precursory phenomena predicted by dilatancy, which require large dilatant strains and complete dilatancy hardening.Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory     

An Examination of Behavior and Hazards Faced by Physically Disabled People During the Loma Prieta Earthquake

There is a need to study hazards faced by physically disabled people during earthquakes. A literature review showed the importance of occupant behavior as a factor that contributes to casualty during earthquakes. A survey questionnaire was used to study the behavioral responses of 33 disabled residents, none of whom sustained injury, during the Loma Prieta earthquake of 17 October 1989. An occupant risk analysis methodology was developed to study the sequence of activities of the disabled people. Severe restrictions in the physical capabilities of the respondents did not appear to increase their exposure to hazards. Overall, the physically disabled occupants did not think of themselves as vulnerable, and those who felt vulnerable initiated self-protective action in response to the hazards present in their immediate surroundings.     

伸展盆地转换带分析──以松辽盆地北部为例

转换带可划分为５种类型：离散型转换带，汇聚型高凸起与低凸起转换，同向型高凸起与低凸起转换带。其中当伸展增加时，高凸起转换带可能发展为低凸起转换带。转换带的形成是由于变形地壳物质组成的不均一笥或区域张应力场的不均一性，而使伸展断层呈侧列或雁列式发生。松辽地发育种类型转换带，而以同向型高凸起低凸起转换带最为发育，推测高凸起转换带是盆岭式裂谷系的典型转换带。转换带是油气有利聚集区。     

逆冲断层前锋带的构造样式

由于逆冲断层产出构造环境和规模的不同，其前缘可以有拆离型，褶皱型，前冲型，反冲型等多种样式；每种样式又可具不同特征。此外，逆冲前缘还常伴生一些重力构造，盆地构造和不同方向的反转构造。各种构造样式可以相互转化和过渡而共存于同一逆冲带，或发育于不同逆冲带中。它们是研究塑冲作用的动力状态，，扩展方式和发展阶段的重要依据。     

新生代阿尔金断层中、东段右行走滑特征

从柴达木、准噶尔、塔里木3个地块近4个古地磁样品中得出的古纬度数据表明,新生代阿尔金断层中、东段的右行走滑特征明显。白垩纪以来,新疆板块相对柴达木地块向北移动了0.6°-5.4°。据此将断裂两侧各地块复原到白垩纪末的位置,天山-北山地体与祁连山地体相联,柴达木地体成为塔里木地体的东延部分。