A prototype earthquake warning system for strike-slip earthquakes

A prototype expert system has been developed to provide rapid warning of earthquakes while they are occurring. Warning times of up to 100 seconds will be possible. In the complete system, several accelerometers are distributed at intervals within a few kilometers of a known fault; data are telemetered to a central computer which implements the expert system. The expert system incorporates specific information about the type of fault to be monitored, and includes simple rules for estimating the fault slip, rupture length, and seismic moment, all in real time. If the seismic moment exceeds a preset value, an alarm may be issued. The prototype is designed for deployment on near-surface strike-slip faults such as the San Andreas and has been successfully tested with data from the 1979 Imperial Valley and 1984 Morgan Hill earthquakes. Crucial concepts have also been tested using synthetic data calculated for a model of the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. Parkfield, California, could be used as a test site.     

论震积作用和震积岩

地震是一种灾害性的地质事件。地震及其引发的海啸、重力流可以形成震积岩、海啸岩和震浊积岩。在地震过程中,震积作用可以形成特殊的构造标志(地震断裂层、地裂缝、微同沉积断裂、微褶皱纹理、重力断层等)、沉积和成岩标志(砂岩脉、泥岩脉、泥晶脉,即磨牙(molar tooth)构造、枕状层、砂火山、泥火山、同沉积变形构造、丘状层理等)。地震沉积组合包括原地震积岩(A,包括震裂岩、震褶岩、自碎屑角砾岩、内碎屑副角砾岩等)、海啸岩(B,由具丘状层理、平行层理的碎屑岩或内碎屑灰岩组成)、震浊积岩(C,由具块状层理、递变层理或玻马序列的粗碎屑岩或碎屑灰岩组成)及背景沉积(D)4个单元,它们组合成A-B-C-D、A-B-D、A-C-D、A-D、B-D、C-D等6种类型的沉积序列。     

应用断层气氡进行地震监测预报

概述了断层气氡观测点的地理位置,地质环境和观测条件,用最优周期谱持和多元逐步回归分析方法对观测资料进行了详细分析,分析结果表明观测曲线具有“冬高夏低”的年动态变化和固体潮变化特征。其中固体潮变化是断层气氡进行地震监测预报的力不基础。     

Regional VS30 model for the St. Lawrence Lowlands,Eastern Canada

Shear-wave velocity of the top 30?m, V_S30, is commonly used for prediction of the seismic site response. This paper presents development, validation and uncertainty assessment of a regional V_S30 model based on a combination of simplified 3D geology and statistically representative velocity values. Results identify soft marine sediments in deep sedimentary basins as zones most susceptible to seismic shaking. Compared to the available urban-scale seismic zonation studies, the regional model showed a success rate of roughly 64% in predicting local site category. The standard deviation was in average 30% of the expected V_S30 value.     

福建深沪湾晚更新世古牡蛎滩的发育与留存古环境

福建深沪湾晚更新世古牡蛎滩以牡蛎原生、分布面积大 ,年龄主要在25800±2490aB P～15460±420aB P之间为其主要特征 ,在牡蛎生长期间 ,深沪湾地壳抬升速率与水动型海平面上升速率相当 ,深沪湾海水深度稳定 ,海岸环境稳定 ,古牡蛎繁盛生长 ,其后深沪湾地壳抬升成陆 ,古牡蛎滩脱离海水成为牡蛎滩台地 ,距今7000a和距今2000a的两次强古地震 ,使古牡蛎滩快速下沉到潮下带和潮间带海底 ,这是深沪湾晚更新世古牡蛎滩能留存到今天的重要原因。     

澜沧—耿马地震前后水氡状态吸引子初探

本文采用“根据时间序列数据重建复杂系统动力学特征”的方法,对澜沧—耿马地震前后澜沧、普洱、思茅和芒市台的水氡旬均值进行了处理,得到震前澜沧.普洱和芒市台水氡状态吸引子维数d在1.0—3.0之间,这从理论上说明了澜沧—耿马地震孕育过程中此三台站水氡变化遵从某些确定性规律,并指出了这些确定性规律所依赖的基本变量数目范围,这对认识大震孕育过程中水氡变化的动力学行为具有一定意义。     

Estimate of earthquake hazard in the Vrancea (Romania) region

A maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters maximum magnitudeM _max, annual activity rate , and theb value of the Gutenberg-Richter equation in the Vrancea (Romania) region. The applied procedure permits the use of mixed catalogs with incomplete historical as well as complete instrumental parts, the consideration of variable detection thresholds, and the incorporation of earthquake magnitude uncertainty.Our imput data, comprises 105 historical earthquakes which occurred between 984 and 1934, and a complete data file containing 1067 earthquakes which occurred during the period 1935–30 August, 1986. The complete part was divided into four subcatalogs according to different thresholds of completeness. Only subcrustal events were considered, and dependent events were removed.The obtained value (=0.65) is at the lower range of the previously reported results, but it appears concurrent with conceptual and observational facts. The same concerns inferred value of _max = 7.8 and activity rate _4.0 = 5.34.     

A method for estimating earthquake occurrence probability using first- and multiple-order Markov chain models

It is valuable in earthquake prediction to determine the occurrence probability of major earthquakes by making use of data obtained from precursory phenomena up to the time of the evaluation. In this study, the time evolution of the state determined by earthquakes and precursory phenomena was modelled using Markov chains. Various probabilities suitable for earthquake prediction were derived from the transition probability of the Markov chain with a chosen length of memory time. As an example, earthquake sequence records for northern China, which covered a period of about two thousand years, were examined and the results were also obtained from modern scientific observations of the radon anomaly which covered a period of about 10 years.Assuming moderate-sized earthquakes of two magnitude ranges 4 3/4 M 5 3/4, 6 M 6 3/4 as precursors to large earthquakes of a magnitude range, 7 M 8 1/2, transition probabilities were calculated for a time interval from 2 to 40 yr. The results showed that the precursory time of moderate-sized earthquakes is mainly distributed in a time span of around several years and that the earthquake occurrence probability is considerably large when the precursory earthquakes occur successively. Furthermore, it was shown that a larger moderate-sized earthquake (4 3/4 M 5 3/4) is a more effective precursor than an entire moderate-sized earthquake (4 3/4 M 6 3/4).Second, a multiple precursor case was tried by means of simulation based on the radon anomaly data obtained during a limited observation period. Simultaneous occurrence of two precursors makes the earthquake occurrence probability increase by 1.5–2.0 for a reasonable choice of a mean recurrence interval of the radon anomaly compared with the case where only a moderate-sized earthquake was treated as the precursor. However, the probability is much the same if the average recurrence interval of the radon anomaly is the same through time, including the preparatory period before the earthquake.     

The 24 May 2014 (Mw6.8) earthquake (North Aegean Trough): Spatiotemporal evolution,source and slip model from teleseismic data

We use teleseismic data to calculate the source model of the 24 May 2014 earthquake and regional catalogues to examine the spatial-temporal characteristics of the sequence. The sequence started in Saros Basin but almost simultaneously aftershocks spread along a ∼200 km zone, activating the entire North Aegean Trough. The aftershock sequence was rich in moderate (M < 4) size events, but very deficient in strong events – only two Mw4.9 aftershocks-a characteristic observed in previous sequences in the region. The teleseismic waveforms were best fit by two sub-events, which were lagged by 18 s in time and by a 50 km jump in space, along the same fault line. The centroid depth of the first sub-event is 22 km, at the base of the lower crust, and for the second is 14 km. The resolved total source time function is ∼30 s. The finite-fault slip model is characterized by an asymmetric bilateral rupture propagation, to the west and east of the hypocentre. The major slip is confined downdip from the hypocentre, within the deeper 12–25 km part. This deep slip migrated updip from the hypocentre to form the second slip patch, in the eastward segment. In all our models the maximum dislocation was of the order of 1 m. For our preferred model parametrization, the rupture speed is 3 km/s, and the scalar moment equal to 1.76 × 10¹⁹ Nm (Mw6.8). This earthquake highlighted the fact that strike-slip faulting in the North Aegean Sea, can attain large lengths and activate very wide zones, reaching densely populated regions.     

基于PCA的地震官方微博影响力评价研究

随着政务微博用户规模及影响力的不断提升,微博作为地震部门传播平台,在地震信息传播方面发挥着巨大的作用。本文在充分考虑地震部门行业特点的基础上,对30个地震官方微博数据进行收集,利用主成分分析法(PCA)归纳出3种地震微博的主要影响指标,即服务力主成分、交互力主成分和创作力主成分,并由此构建出地震官方微博影响力评估指标体系,在此基础上计算得出各地震官方微博的主成分指标得分和影响力综合得分,最后根据得分情况对地震官方微博影响力提出了具可行性的提升策略。