A statistical procedure for the analysis of seismotectonically induced hydrochemical signals: A case study from the Eastern Carpathians, Romania

Changes in the stress field of an aquifer system induced by seismotectonic activity may change the mixing ratio of groundwaters with different compositions in a well, leading to hydrochemical signals which in principle could be related to discrete earthquake events. Due to the complexity of the interactions and the multitude of involved factors the identification of such relationships is a difficult task. In this study we present an empiric statistical approach suitable to analyse if there is an interdependency between changes in the chemical composition of monitoring wells and the regional seismotectonic activity of a considered area. To allow a rigorous comparison with hydrochemistry the regional earthquake time series was aggregated into an univariate time series. This was realized by expressing each earthquake in form of a parameter “e”, taking into consideration both energetic (magnitude of a seismic event) and spatial parameters (position of epi/hypocentrum relative to the monitoring site). The earthquake and the hydrochemical time-series were synchronised aggregating the e-parameters into “earthquake activity” functions E, which takes into account the time of sampling relative to the earthquakes which occurred in the considered area. For the definition of the aggregation functions a variety of different “e” parameters were considered. The set of earthquake functions E was grouped by means of factor analysis to select a limited number of significant and representative earthquake functions E to be used further on in the relation analysis with the multivariate hydrochemical data set. From the hydrochemical data a restricted number of hydrochemical factors were extracted. Factor scores allow to represent and analyse the variation of the hydrochemical factors as a function of time. Finally, regression analysis was used to detect those hydrochemical factors which significantly correlate with the aggregated earthquake functions.This methodological approach was tested with a hydrochemical data set collected from a deep well monitored for two years in the seismically active Vrancea region, Romania. Three of the hydrochemical factors were found to correlate significantly with the considered earthquake activities. A screening with different time combinations revealed that correlations are strongest when the cumulative seismicity over several weeks was considered. The case study also showed that the character of the interdependency depends sometimes on the geometrical distribution of the earthquake foci. By using aggregated earthquake information it was possible to detect interrelationships which couldn't have been identified by analysing only relations between single geochemical signals and single earthquake events. Further on, the approach allows to determine the influence of different seismotectonic patterns on the hydrochemical composition of the sampled well. The method is suitable to be used as a decision instrument in assessing if a monitoring site is suitable or not to be included in a monitoring net within a complex earthquake prediction strategy.     

Analysis of earth dams affected by the 2001 Bhuj Earthquake

An earthquake of magnitude of 7.6 (M_w 7.6) occurred in Bhuj, India on January 26, 2001. This event inflicted damages of varying extents to a large number of small to moderate size multi-zone earth dams in the vicinity of the epicenter. Some of the distress was due to the liquefaction of saturated alluvium in foundation. Liquefaction was relatively localized for the majority of these dams because the earthquake struck in the middle of a prolonged dry season when the reservoirs behind these dams were nearly empty and shallow alluvium soils underneath the downstream portions of the dams were partly dry. Otherwise, liquefaction of foundation soils would have been more extensive and damage to these dams more significant. Six such dams have been examined in this paper. Four of these facilities, Chang, Shivlakha, Suvi, and Tapar were within the 50 km of epicenter region. These dams underwent free-field ground motion with peak ground accelerations between 0.28g to 0.52g. Of these Chang Dam underwent severe slumping, whereas Shivlakha, Suvi, and Tapar Dams were affected severely especially over the upstream sections. Fatehgadh Dam and Kaswati Dam were affected relatively less severely. Foundation conditions underneath these dams were first examined for assessing liquefaction potential. A limited amount of subsurface information available from investigations undertaken prior to the earthquake indicates that, although the foundation soils within the top 2.0 to 2.5 m underneath these dams were susceptible to liquefaction, Bhuj Earthquake did not trigger liquefaction because of lack of saturation of these layers underneath the downstream portions of these dams. These dams were then analyzed using a simple sliding block procedure using appropriate estimates of undrained soil strength parameters. The results of this analysis for these structures were found to be in general agreement with the observed deformation patterns.     

Geologic and geotechnical effects of an impact caused by an airplane crash

A Turkish Airlines (THY) Boeing 737-400 plane crashed into alluvial soils creating an approximately 13 m deep and 30 m wide crater near the village of Adatepe, Ceyhan in southern Turkey. Effects of the impact on the soils in and around the crater were investigated from both the geological and soil mechanics point of view.

The results show that the impact caused severe deformations in the soils in and around the crater. The soils deformed similar to metamorphic rocks seen at many terrestrial hypervelocity impact craters around the world and became overconsolidated up to a distance of about 10 m from the crater wall as a result of the impact.

Also, the crash was recorded as a 2.7 magnitude earthquake by a nearby microtremor seismograph which provided both the location (epicenter) and time of the crash which was not known immediately after the crash.     

浅析福建地倾斜潮汐因子γ及其组合动态特征

本文计算了福建自1992年至2004年以来的地倾斜EW和NS两分量的固体潮潮汐因子,并进行动态组合,绘制组合动态三种特征量:ΔγEW ΔγNS(表征扩容)、ΔγEW-ΔγNS(表征剪切应变)、ΔγEW/ΔγNS(表征介质各向异性)的时序曲线图,并进行固体潮特征分析,寻找中、强地震发生前远场块体和近场块体地倾斜突变性形变异常与之对应关系。结果表明:在福建沿海,海潮是决定倾斜固体潮特征的主要因素;福建发生5级上的中强地震、台湾发生7级以上强烈地震时,福建地倾斜固体潮潮汐因子及其动态组合特征存在明显的渐进式突变性形变异常现象,异常量和异常持续时间与震级和震中距有较好的对应关系。     

Left upstream slope design for the Çatalan Dam, Adana, Turkey and its behaviour under actual earthquake loading

An investigation and remediation of instability along upstream cut slopes for an earthfill dam in differentially weathered rock in southern Turkey is described. The major instability problem was a 45-m high and 200-m long previously cut slope next to the main axis of the dam, above the diversion tunnels and water outlet structures. The slope was first designed and excavated in 1986 based on the temporary berm approach. Rising water level in the reservoir would change the shear strength parameters and the pore-water pressure in the slope; thus, probable deep failure would damage the entrance of the diversion tunnels and water outlet structures, as well as the earthfill embankment of the dam. In June 1996, the slope face was re-excavated and protected against wave erosion by placement of a layer of rock riprap over a layer of bedding and a filter material. A strong earthquake (M_S = 6.2) occurred during a period of rapid drawdown in 27 June 1998. The slope remained stable, although numerous tension cracks developed in Quaternary terrace deposits near the reservoir area.     

纪念中国大陆科学钻探实施15周年、国际大陆科学钻探委员会成立20周年

大陆科学钻探是“入地”的重要手段,是“深入地球内部的望远镜”。中国大陆科学钻探事业开展15周年以来,取得重要进展,获得全球地学界的高度关注,特别是2001年实施的中国第一口大陆科学深钻 （5158m）,成果辉煌,影响巨大。继后,又开展了青海湖环境科学钻探、松辽盆地白垩纪科学钻探、柴达木盐湖环境资源科学钻探,汶川地震断裂带科学钻探以及中国大陆科钻资源集成计划,总共钻进约 35km,显示了中国科学钻探方兴未艾的景象。为纪念国际大陆科学钻探20周年（1996~2016）和中国大陆科学钻探实施15周年（2001~2016）,本文回顾中国大陆科学钻探实施15年来的艰辛和奋斗的历程,展望中国大陆科学钻探的未来。     

WFSD-4S孔流体地球化学特征

本文开展汶川地震断裂带科学钻探现场流体研究,探讨了泥浆添加剂产生的化学反应以及钻孔中岩性变化引起的流体异常特征,并在排除这些影响因素的情况下,讨论地震期间流体的异常。研究表明在WFSD-4S钻进期间发生的两次较大地震前均伴有Rn、Ar、N2和O2等气体异常现象,其中氡的日均值均超出背景值的2.5倍。根据岩心观察得到WFSD-4S钻井地区主断层约在1084 m,而在断层之上931 m处开始出现了大量气体的高值异常,该异常可能是由于地震孕育过程中地下气体的运移通道被打开造成气体向上迁移,使断层气体的响应特征提前发生。     

6600 years of earthquake record in the Julian Alps (Lake Bohinj,Slovenia)

Sequences of lake sediments often form long and continuous records that may be sensitive recorders of seismic shaking. A multi‐proxy analysis of Lake Bohinj sediments associated with a well‐constrained chronology was conducted to reconstruct Holocene seismic activity in the Julian Alps (Slovenia). A seismic reflection survey and sedimentological analyses identified 29 homogenite‐type deposits related to mass‐wasting deposits. The most recent homogenites can be linked to historical regional earthquakes (i.e. 1348 ad , 1511 ad and 1690 ad ) with strong epicentral intensity [greater than ‘damaging’ (VIII ) on the Medvedev–Sponheuer–Karnik scale]. The correlation between the historical earthquake data set and the homogenites identified in a core isolated from local stream inputs, allows interpretation of all similar deposits as earthquake related. This work extends the earthquake chronicle of the last 6600 years in this area with a total of 29 events recorded. The early Holocene sedimentary record is disturbed by a seismic event (6617 ± 94 cal yr bp ) that reworked previously deposited sediment and led to a thick sediment deposit identified in the seismic survey. The period between 3500 cal yr bp and 2000 cal yr bp is characterized by a major destabilization in the watershed by human activities that led to increases in erosion and sedimentation rates. This change increased the lake's sensitivity to recording an earthquake (earthquake‐sensitivity threshold index) with the occurrence of 72 turbidite‐type deposits over this period. The high turbidite frequency identified could be the consequence of this change in lake earthquake sensitivity and thus these turbidites could be triggered by earthquake shaking, as other origins are discarded. This study illustrates why it is not acceptable to propose a return period for seismic activity recorded in lake sediment if the sedimentation rate varies significantly.     

Progress in the Application of Ground Gravity Observation Data in Earthquake Prediction

The mechanism of earthquake inoculation and the process of earthquake occurrence are very complicated. Additionally, earthquakes do not happen very often, and we lack enough cognition to the earth’s interior structure, activity regularity and other key elements. As a result, research progress about the theory of earthquake precursors has been greatly restricted. Ground gravity observation has become one of the main ways to study earthquake precursor information in many countries and regions. This paper briefly summarized the surface gravity observation technology and observation network in China: the surface gravity measurement instrument developed from Huygens physical pendulum in seventeenth Century to today’s high-precision absolute gravimeter, and its accuracy reached to ±1×10^-8 m/s². China has successively established the National Gravity Network, Digital Earthquake Observation Network of China,the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China Ⅰ and the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China, to provide a public platform for monitoring non tidal gravity change, seismic gravity and tectonic movement. The use of specific examples illustrated the role of gravity observation data in earthquake prediction. The gravity observation data of ground gravity can be used to capture the information of gravity change in the process of strong earthquake inoculation, and to provide an important basis for the long-term prediction of strong earthquakes. The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the regional gravity field and its relation to strong earthquakes were analyzed: Before the earthquake whose magnitude is higher than M_S 5, generally there will be a large amplitude and range of gravity anomaly zones. Strong earthquakes occur mainly in areas where the gravity field changes violently. The dynamic change images of gravity field can clearly reflect the precursory information of large earthquakes during the inoculation and occurrence. Finally, the existing problems of surface gravity technology in earthquake precursor observation were put forward and the use of gravity measurement data in earthquake prediction research was prospected.