On the Occurrence Time of an Earthquake Cluster in the Shanxi Reservoir

INTRODUCTIONEarthquake induced byreservoir is a kind of crust motion andis an outcome of the joint functionof current crustal movement andreservoir storage .The cause of reservoir-induced earthquakesincludesthe decrease of strengthand elasticity modulus of rockonthe one hand,andthe decrease of friction offault surface because of water permeation onthe other .The more large-scale reservoirs built ,the more reservoir-induced earthquakes will happen.As iswell known,reservoir-induced earthqua…     

Application of Astronomic Time-latitude Residuals in Earthquake Prediction

After the earthquake (Ms = 6.1) occurred in Luquan county of Yunnan province on April 18, 1985, the relationship between major earthquakes and astronomical time-latitude residuals (ATLR) of a photoelectric astrolabe in Yunnan Observatory was analyzed. ATLR are the rest after deducting the effects of Earth’s whole motion from the observations of time and latitude. It was found that there appeared the anomalies of the ATLR before earthquakes which happened in and around Yunnan, a seismic active region. The reason of the anomalies is possibly from change of the plumb line due to the motion of the groundmass before earthquakes. Afterwards, using studies of the anomalous characters and laws of ATLR, we tried to provide the warning information prior to the occurrence of a few major earthquakes in the region. The significant synchronous anomalies of ATLR of the observatory appeared before the earthquake of magnitude 6.2 in Dayao county of Yunnan province, on July 21, 2003. It has been again verified that the anomalies possibly provide the prediction information for strong earthquakes around the observatory.     

Seismic amplifications from offshore to shore

The objective of this study is to determine numerical estimations of seismic amplifications of waves traveling from offshore to shore considering the effect of sea floor configurations. According to the Boundary Element Method, boundary elements were used to irradiate waves and density force can be determined for each element. From this hypothesis, Huygens’ Principle is implemented since diffracted waves are constructed at the boundary from which they are radiated and this is equivalent to Somigliana's theorem. Application of boundary conditions leads to determine a system of integral equations of Fredholm type of second kind, which is solved by the Gaussian method. Various numerical models were analyzed, a first one was used to validate the proposed formulation and some other models were used to show various ideal sea floor configurations to estimate seismic amplifications. Once the formulation was validated, basic slope configurations were studied for estimating spectra of seismic amplifications for various sea floor materials. In general terms, compressional waves (P-waves) can produce seismic amplifications of the incident wave in the order of 2–5. On the other hand, distortional waves (S-waves) can produce amplifications up to 5.5 times the incident wave. A relevant finding is that the highest seismic amplifications due to an offshore earthquake are always located near the shore-line and not offshore despite the seafloor configuration.     

Airborne near-real-time monitoring of assembly and parking areas in case of large-scale public events and natural disasters

A critical requirement for an effective and coordinated response by public entities tasked with management, security, and relief during large-scale public events or natural disasters is the availability of current situational information. However, today there is a lack of comprehensive operational systems allowing a near-real-time (NRT) collection, visualization, and provision of situational information for larger areas. In this study a methodological framework is proposed, which allows an NRT extraction and visualization of situational information based on aerial image acquisition. The framework combines digital image analysis using a generic supervised information extraction approach based on statistical modeling with a downstream web-based visualization component realized through an automatic update of web services. Even though being applicable for different scenarios, the workflow will be demonstrated for the specific use-case of a NRT monitoring of open spaces including assembly and parking areas. Compared to other approaches, image analysis results indicate a high robustness and a low demand for computational power sources (7 seconds per image). Due to a high degree of automation, the proposed workflow contributes to a NRT ‘end-to-end’ monitoring system, which was developed within the VABENE (German acronym for ‘traffic management under large-scale public events and disaster conditions’) project covering all parts from the acquisition of raw aerial imagery to the dissemination of information products to end-users.     

Integrating multi-agent evacuation simulation and multi-criteria evaluation for spatial allocation of urban emergency shelters

The timely and secure evacuation of residents to nearby urban emergency shelters is of great importance during unexpected disaster events. However, evacuation and allocation of shelters are seldom examined as a whole, even though they are usually closely related tasks in disaster management. To conduct better spatial allocation of emergency shelters in cities, this study proposes a new method which integrates techniques of multi-agent system and multi-criteria evaluation for spatial allocation of urban emergency shelters. Compared with the traditional emergency shelter allocation methods, the proposed method highlights the importance of dynamic emergency evacuation simulations for spatial allocation suitability analysis. Three kinds of agents involved in evacuation and sheltering procedures are designed: government agents, shelter agents, and resident agents. Emergency evacuations are simulated based on the interactions of these agents to find potential problems, for example, time-consuming evacuation processes and road congestion. A case study in Jing’an District, Shanghai, China was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. After three rounds of simulation and optimization, new shelters were spatially allocated and a detailed recommended plan of shelters and related facilities was generated. The optimized spatial allocation of shelters may help local residents to be evacuated more quickly and securely.     

A Neogene giant landslide in Tarapacá, northern Chile: A signal of instability of the westernmost Altiplano and palaeoseismicity effects

Giant landslides, which usually have volumes up to several tens of km³, tend to be related to mountainous reliefs such as fault scarps or thrust fronts. The western flank of the Precordillera in southern Peru and northern Chile is characterized by the presence of such mega-landslides. A good example is the Latagualla Landslide (19°15′S), composed of ~ 5.4 km³ of Miocene ignimbritic rock blocks located next to the Moquella Flexure, a structure resulting from the propagation of a west-vergent thrust blind fault that borders the Precordillera of the Central Depression. The landslide mass is very well preserved, allowing reconstitution of its movement and evolution in three main stages. The geomorphology of the landslide indicates that it preceded the incision of the present-day valleys during the late Miocene. Given the local geomorphological conditions 8–9 Ma ago (morphology, slopes and probably a high water table), large-magnitude earthquakes could have provided destabilization forces enough to cause the landslide. On the other hand, present seismic forces would not be sufficient to trigger such landslides; therefore the hazard related to them in the region is low.     

人群拥挤踩踏事件原因与应急处置探究: 上海外滩迎新踩踏事件的反思

重大突发灾害事故时有发生,给人民的生命财产安全带来了严重的威胁。应急疏散作为灾后应急响应的重要环节,对减少人员伤亡有着重要意义。经过长期发展,研究人员利用多种方式观察到了许多具有重要价值的疏散规律,也提出了多个优秀的模型方法。然而,应急疏散涉及到的灾害事故类型、受灾人群和应急场景等多样复杂,导致应急疏散模型的侧重点和方法论等各有不同,加大了读者对应急疏散研究现状的全局理解难度。从应急疏散行为分析、模拟仿真、策略优化、预案实施等多个角度对现有重大突发灾害事故下的应急疏散研究现状进行梳理、归纳与总结,旨在厘清一条清晰的应急疏散研究脉络。在此基础之上,进一步提炼出当前面临的主要难题与解决思路,服务于应急疏散的下一步发展。     

油企业抗震防灾规划信息管理系统的设计

基于石油企业抗震防灾工作对网络与数据库的信息管理系统的需求，对数据库产品进行了简要分析，并根据石油企业抗震防灾规划的需求和信息管理的一般模式，提出了石油企业抗震防灾规划信息计算机管理系统的设想。认为，以 Ｍｉｃｒｏｓｏｆｔ Ａｃｃｅｓｓ 数据库软件为基础，利用 Ｖ Ｂ或 Ｖ Ｃ等可视化前端应用开发工具，是目前比较好的方案，它将使石油企业抗震防灾规划工作在办公自动化方面迈向新的台阶     

Physics of Seismic Source Ⅲ. Statistical Mechanics of Earthquakes

The statistical mechanics of earthquakes adopts the concepts and methodology of statistical mechanics, especially the theory of critical phenomena, in studying the preparation, initiation, propagation and healing of earthquake rupture, which forms a new branch in the physics of seismic source in recent years. This article introduces to the fundamental concepts of the statistical mechanics of earthquakes. The introduction includes the seismic Hamiltonian, percolation model, earthquake rupture nucleation, and Burridge-Knopoff spring-block model. It is pointed out that some of the statistical mechanical models of earthquakes have a sound seismological basis. There is a smooth "transition" from the "classical" theory to the "modern" theory of seismic source.