天津市地震应急避难场所试点建设

天津市地震应急避难场所试点建设是“天津市地震安全基础工程”分项之一,由天滓市政府投资146万元。应急避难场所的建成给人民群众提供一个应对突发重大灾害性事件的临时安置场所。并且能在灾害发生后一段时期内,躲避由灾害带来的直接或间接伤害,使人民群众的基本生活得到保障。本文从建设内容、建设原则、主要功能与服务、主要成果与效益、问题与建议五个方面对试点建设情况进行了介绍与分析。     

基于GIS技术的鞍山市震害预测

介绍了以ArcViewGIS平台为开发平台，利用网络划分技术对鞍山市建筑物进行了单元划分，对每个单元进行了建筑物群体震害预测；在ArcViewGIS平台上构建信息管理系统的技术思路与实现步骤：最后给出了反映鞍山市建筑物在不同地震烈度下的破坏结果，以及造成的直接经济损失与人员伤亡情况。     

地震应力触发数值模拟的初步研究

本文基于有限元方法，初步建立了西南地区二维和三维数值模拟有限元模型，并针对川滇地区，重点建立了包括上地壳、下地壳、上地幔等的三维有限元模型。最后，讨论了地震产生的应力变化对整个西南地区的应力调整情况。结果表明：前一地震对后续地震有一定的触发作用。因此，强震活动有限元模型的建立对判定未来强震危险区有一定的作用。     

中国大陆地震地下流体异常特征研究

根据《中国震例》(1966~1999年)在中国大陆发生M_S≥5.0地震188次震例资料 , 将其中与流体异常相关的126个震例中的803项流体异常按异常出现、 异常转折至发震随时间变化和异常数量随震中距距离变化分布的时、 空特征进行统计、 分析。 研究结果表明, 无论是趋势性异常还是短临异常, 在不同的时间段中, 异常数量呈现出明显的阶段性分布特征; 异常数量空间分布会随震中距的变化而不同。 在统计研究中还表明, 两者在时、 空分布方面有较好的一致性。     

1970年通海7.7级大地震强余震触发

1970年1月5日云南通海发生了M_S7.7地震, 震后发生了多次M_S＞5.0的强余震。 文中计算了1970年通海7.7级大地震后, 主震分别在5次强余震破裂面上诱发的库仑破裂应力变化(ΔCFS)。 结果表明, 有4次强余震发生在库仑破裂应力增加(ΔCFS＞0)的地区, 增加的范围为10^-2～10^-1 MPa; 有1次强余震按2种震源机制解结果给出的破裂面计算, 得到2种结果, 分别发生在库仑破裂应力变化为正和在库仑破裂应力变化为负的地区。 研究结果表明, 主震位错产生的库仑破裂应力变化可能是1970年通海7.7级大地震强余震活动的重要原因。     

震前云下增温异常及其时段特征

利用卫星热红外图像资料做地震短临预报, 主要依据的是地表大气增温异常在卫星图像上的亮温反映。 但在阴云密布的天气条件下, 这种预报方法却受到了限制, 因为卫星无法探测到地面或水面是否有增温异常。 通过气象资料分析, 得知云层或其他气象条件引起的降温并不能改变震前地表温度增加的趋势。 某些地震之前虽然震中及其附近地区天空阴云密布, 地面增温幅度却可高达十几度。 云下增温曲线可划分为3个时段(即A、 B、 C段), 其中A段与C段分别为增温前与震后的温度变化曲线, 多与日照时间呈正相关关系, 特别是A段的这种关系更具普遍性。 然而, 反映震前地面增温特征的B段却与日照时间没有明显的相关性, 可见这种持续增温、 与云量无关的波状增温等都主要不是由日照或气象条件引起的, 而是一种与地下应力作用、 气体释放、 瞬变电场等有关的震兆现象。 因此, 提高对云下增温的系统观测能力, 是改善热红外地震预报的有效途径。     

松山台地电场的自然电位异常

根据对中法合作天祝松山电磁台运行6年的全部资料(变化周期≥1 d)的分析, 从中可看出, 我国西部某些中强以上地震前, 天祝地电场出现了缓变信息异常, 也就是通常所指的自然电位异常。 异常有2种形式, 先增大后降低的趋势性背景变化和大幅度的单向加速变化。 除此之外, 震前还有短临的大地电场阶跃性异常。 文中讨论了几种异常的可能机理, 认为大幅度的单向加速异常与磁暴有关; 而趋势性背景变化是过滤电场的冲流电位在震前明显改变所致, 主要出现在2001年昆仑山口西8.1级大震之前。     

郯庐断裂带南段及邻区地震b值的空间分布特征

The Tanlu( Tancheng-Lujiang) fault is one of the major structures in eastern China,which cuts across different blocks and controls the tectonic activity. Using the seismic data from the China Earthquake Networks Center,we investigate the spatial variations of the b-value in the Dabie-Sulu( Jiangsu-Shandong) organic belt by calculating the b-value of each grid( 1°×1°) from 1970 to 2010. The study shows that: the b-value is smaller in the Tanlu fault and its adjacent area,which might suggest that the major earthquake recurrence period is relatively long due to the lower frequency of small earthquake activity. In both sides of Tanlu fault,the b-value is higher at the edge of Sulu block and the eastern part of Dabie orogenic belt. The b values are higher in North China central orogenic belt,and small earthquake activity which occurred along the central orogenic belt is frequent. Additionally,combined with geological and geophysical study,we find that the b-value has a certain correspondence relationship with the lithologic distribution,which informs us that seismic activity features are closely related to the inhomogeneous media in the crust.     

Comparison of 1D linear,equivalent-linear,and nonlinear site response models at six KiK-net validation sites

Vertical seismometer arrays represent a unique interaction between observed and predicted ground motions, and they are especially helpful for validating and comparing site response models. In this study, we perform comprehensive linear, equivalent-linear, and nonlinear site response analyses of 191 ground motions recorded at six validation sites in the Kiban–Kyoshin network (KiK-net) of vertical seismometer arrays in Japan. These sites, which span a range of geologic conditions, are selected because they meet the basic assumptions of one-dimensional (1D) wave propagation, and are therefore ideal for validating and calibrating 1D nonlinear soil models. We employ the equivalent-linear site response program SHAKE, the nonlinear site response program DEEPSOIL, and a nonlinear site response overlay model within the general finite element program Abaqus/Explicit. Using the results from this broad range of ground motions, we quantify the uncertainties of the alternative site response models, measure the strain levels at which the models break down, and provide general recommendations for performing site response analyses. Specifically, we find that at peak shear strains from 0.01% to 0.1%, linear site response models fail to accurately predict short-period ground motions; equivalent-linear and nonlinear models offer a significant improvement at strains beyond this level, with nonlinear models exhibiting a slight improvement over equivalent-linear models at strains greater than approximately 0.05%.     

Framework for the derivation of analytical fragility curves and life cycle cost analysis for non-seismically designed buildings

The quantification of the devastating effects of earthquakes on buildings can be achieved with the use of earthquake risk assessment. The formulation of strategies to minimise this risk is a complex task which relies on data regarding mainly the hazard, vulnerability and remaining life of the building. In this paper, the case study of Limassol municipality is presented. Initially, the building inventory and categorisation is defined followed by the selection of hazard scenarios and the development of analytical vulnerability curves. In the final part, risk assessment is performed leading to the formulation of retrofitting strategies for long term use.