A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

复合土钉墙支护技术在某大型软土基坑围护中的应用

根据拟建建筑基坑的工程地质条件、周边环境条件、基坑开挖深度等特点综合考虑，对基坑分段采用超前微型桩支护加土钉墙、放坡加土钉墙2种复合支护方案。实践证明，该工程所采用的多种复合式支护实施方案，技术安全可靠，经济合理。     

Great earthquakes of variable magnitude at the Cascadia subduction zone

Comparison of histories of great earthquakes and accompanying tsunamis at eight coastal sites suggests plate-boundary ruptures of varying length, implying great earthquakes of variable magnitude at the Cascadia subduction zone. Inference of rupture length relies on degree of overlap on radiocarbon age ranges for earthquakes and tsunamis, and relative amounts of coseismic subsidence and heights of tsunamis. Written records of a tsunami in Japan provide the most conclusive evidence for rupture of much of the plate boundary during the earthquake of 26 January 1700. Cascadia stratigraphic evidence dating from about 1600 cal yr B.P., similar to that for the 1700 earthquake, implies a similarly long rupture with substantial subsidence and a high tsunami. Correlations are consistent with other long ruptures about 1350 cal yr B.P., 2500 cal yr B.P., 3400 cal yr B.P., 3800 cal yr B.P., 4400 cal yr B.P., and 4900 cal yr B.P. A rupture about 700-1100 cal yr B.P. was limited to the northern and central parts of the subduction zone, and a northern rupture about 2900 cal yr B.P. may have been similarly limited. Times of probable short ruptures in southern Cascadia include about 1100 cal yr B.P., 1700 cal yr B.P., 3200 cal yr B.P., 4200 cal yr B.P., 4600 cal yr B.P., and 4700 cal yr B.P. Rupture patterns suggest that the plate boundary in northern Cascadia usually breaks in long ruptures during the greatest earthquakes. Ruptures in southernmost Cascadia vary in length and recurrence intervals more than ruptures in northern Cascadia.     

The Ore-forming Fluid of the Gold Deposits of Muru Gold Belt in Eastern Shandong, China - a Case Study of Denggezhuang Gold Deposit

Abstract. Denggezhuang gold deposit is an epithermal gold‐quartz vein deposit in northern Muru gold belt, eastern Shandong, China. The deposit occurs in the NNE‐striking faults within the Mesozoic granite. The deposit consists of four major veins with a general NNE‐strike. Based on crosscutting relationships and mineral parageneses, the veins appear to have been formed during the same mineralization epochs, and are further divided into three stages: (1) massive barren quartz veins; (2) quartz‐sulfides veins; (3) late, pure quartz or calcite veinlets. Most gold mineralization is associated with the second stage. The early stage is characterized by quartz, and small amounts of ore minerals (pyrite), the second stage is characterized by large amounts of ore minerals. Fluid inclusions in vein quartz contain C‐H‐O fluids of variable compositions. Three main types of fluid inclusions are recognized at room temperature: type I, two‐phase, aqueous vapor and an aqueous liquid phase (L+V); type II, aqueous‐carbonic inclusions, a CC₂‐liquid with/without vapor and aqueous liquid (LCO₂+VCC₂+Laq.); type III, mono‐phase aqueous liquid (Laq.). Data from fluid inclusion distribution, microthermometry, and gas analysis indicate that fluids associated with Au mineralized quartz veins (stage 2) have moderate salinity ranging from 1.91 to 16.43 wt% NaCl equivalent (modeled salinity around 8–10 wt% NaCl equiv.). These veins formatted at temperatures from 80d? to 280d?C. Fluids associated with barren quartz veins (stage 3) have a low salinity of about 1.91 to 2.57 wt% NaCl equivalent and lower temperature. There is evidence of fluid immiscibility and boiling in ore‐forming stages. Stable isotope analyses of quartz indicate that the veins were deposited by waters with δ^O and δD values ranging from those of magmatic water to typical meteoric water. The gold metallogenesis of Muru gold belt has no relationship with the granite, and formed during the late stage of the crust thinning of North China.     

长白山锦北雨养泥炭剖面元素富集规律分析

为了揭示长白山锦北泥炭沼泽区泥炭沉积环境和重金属元素的历史变化及其对环境的指示意义,利用荷兰W ardenaar泥炭采样器采取泥炭样品并对样品进行高分辨率切割。用原子吸收分光光度计和等离子体发射光谱仪测定不同深度剖面Ca,Mg,Na,K,A l,Ti,Cu,Zn,Fe,Mn,Pb,Cr,N i和Co的浓度。研究分析了Ca,Mg,Na,K,A l,Ti,Mn,Zn,Cu,Pb,Cr,N i和Co在泥炭剖面的分布趋势并对其进行了相关分析和富集分析,得出Mn,Zn,Cu,Pb,Cr,N i和Co呈显著相关且在泥炭表层明显累积,揭示出泥炭表层重金属元素的大气沉降来源,表明近年来人类重金属消耗量及排放量的增加是大气沉降重金属元素的主要释放源,而且环境中重金属污染有加重的趋势。     

中国能源安全与南海开发

二十一世纪是海洋经济时代。随着我国经济的发展,能源问题日益突出。由于我国陆上石油资源日益枯竭,海上石油开发成为我国能源的战略重点。南海陆架新生代地层厚约2000～3000m。第三纪沉积有海相、陆相及海陆交互相,具有良好的生油和储油岩系。南海扼海上要冲-马六甲海峡,南海航线是我国能源的海上生命线,具有不可替代的战略地位。我国南海资源和海域主权遭受到极大的侵犯。发展深海油气的勘探和开发技术,开发我国的南海深水石油资源,维护我国海域主权已经刻不容缓。优先进行南海石油开发是破解我国石油能源困局的必选战略。     

Geological and geomorphological characteristics of landslides triggered by the 2004 Mid Niigta prefecture earthquake in Japan

The 2004 Mid Niigta prefecture earthquake (M_JMA 6.8) triggered more than one thousand landslides in the Miocene to Quaternary sedimentary rocks in Japan. The most common landslides were shallow disrupted landslides on steep slopes, which has been common in many previous disastrous earthquakes in the world. The Mid Niigta prefecture earthquake also triggered more than one hundred deep landslides, providing valuable information on the conditions for their occurrence. A field investigation and the interpretation of aerial photographs taken before and after the earthquake suggest that reactivation of existing landslides and undercutting of slopes are the most important factors for deep landslides to be triggered by earthquakes. In addition, planar sliding surfaces seem to be essential for the generation of catastrophic landslides triggered by this earthquake. Planar bedding–parallel sliding surfaces were formed at the boundary between the overlying permeable sandstone and underlying siltstone or along the bedding planes of alternating beds of sandstone and siltstone. Sliding surfaces along the slope-parallel oxidation front were formed in the area of black mudstone. New landslides (rockslide-avalanches) occurred with the sliding surfaces in a several-cm thick tuff interbedded in siltstone. One rockslide-avalanche occurred on a slope where buckling deformation preceded the earthquake. Gentle valley bottom sediments were mobilized in many locations, probably because they were saturated and partial liquefaction had occurred due to the earthquake shaking.     

Characterization of water bursting and discharge into underground mines with multilayered groundwater flow systems in the North China coal basin

A conceptual framework for characterization of water bursting and discharge into underground mines with multilayered groundwater flow systems is presented, based on the features of the site conditions and analyses of the water bursting and mine inundation events of the North China coal basin. Comprehensive analyses of the hydrogeological conditions for establishment of the three-dimensional groundwater flow systems of the North China coal basin revealed different vertical hydraulic connection paths or channels. These connections include karst collapse columns, fault or fracture zones, buried weathering zones, and fracture networks in aquitards, within the multilayered groundwater flow systems. Also examined, was the effect of the primary features of the flow system and those different connection paths on water bursting and discharge into the underground coal mines. It was demonstrated that appropriately identifying and adequately understanding the three-dimensional multilayered groundwater flow systems and those various vertical hydraulic connection mechanisms are critical for appropriately preventing water bursting hazards and predicting water discharge into underground mines. A valuable guideline is presented on characterization of water bursting and discharge into underground mines with multilayered groundwater flow systems.

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Resumen Un cadre de travail conceptuel pour la caractérisation du jaillissement et de la vidange des eaux dans les mines à plusieurs niveaux d'écoulement est présenté, basé sur les conditions et l'analyse sur site du jaillissement des eaux et des inondations dans les bassins charbonneux du Nord de la Chine. L'analyse compréhensive des conditions hydrogéologiques des systèmes d'écoulement tridimensionnel de ces bassins, révèle des trajets ou des chenaux qui sont autant de connections hydrauliques verticales. Ces connections comprennent des effondrement karstiques en colonne, des zones de fractures et de failles, des zones d'altération, des réseaux de fractures dans les aquitards, dans le système hydrogéologique multicouche. L'influence des caractéristiques primaires du système d'écoulement et de ces différentes connections sur le jaillissement et la vidange dans les mines, est également examiné. Il a été démontré que l'identification appropriée et la compréhension adéquate du système d'écoulement souterrain multicouche et tridimensionnel, et des mécanismes variés de connection hydraulique verticale est critiquée pour prévenir de manière appropriée les risques de jaillissement et de vidange dans les mines. Des guidelines valorisables sont présentées, pour la caractérisation du jaillissement et de la vidange dans de tels systèmes.

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Résumé Se presenta un marco conceptual para la de caracterización de la despresurización y descarga de agua a minas subterráneas con sistemas de acuíferos de múltiples niveles, el cual se basa en las condiciones del sitio, análisis de la despresurización de agua e inundaciones de minas en la cuenca de carbón del norte de la China.Un análisis comprehensivo de las condiciones hidrogeológicas para el establecimiento de los sistemas de flujo de agua de tri-dimensionales en la cuenca de carbón del norte de la China ha revelado diferentes canales hidráulicos verticales. Estas conexiones incluyen columnas de karst colapsadas, fallas o zonas de fracturas, zonas de regalita hundida y redes de fracturas en zonas de poca permeabilidad dentro de los sistemas de flujo de múltiples niveles.También se investigó el efecto de los rasgos primarios del sistema de flujo y los diferentes canales conectivos sobre la despresurización y descarga de agua a minas subterráneas. Se demostró que el entendimiento e identificación adecuada de los sistemas de acuíferos de múltiples niveles en tres dimensiones es crítico para prevenir apropiadamente la despresurización y descarga de agua a minas subterráneas. Se presentan lineamientos valiosos en relación con la despresurización y descarga de agua a minas subterráneas en sistemas de flujo de múltiple nivel.

     

Damage Survey of Water Supply Systems and Fragility Curve of PVC Water Pipelines in the Chi–Chi Taiwan Earthquake

Substantial damage to water supply systems, including water delivery pipelines, water treatment plants, reservoirs, and water storage tanks, was reported after the 1999 Chi–Chi Taiwan Earthquake. This paper first summarizes the damage survey and then presents the results of seismic fragility analysis for underground pipelines. Construction blueprints of the water delivery pipelines and repair work orders of 11 townships and cities in the disastrous area were digitized into a Geographical Information System (GIS) for analysis and assessment. With the aid of the GIS system, we found that PVC pipes made up 86% of water delivery pipelines while steel, cast iron, ductile iron, PE and others took the rest. Therefore, this paper focuses on the fragility analysis of PVC pipes. Three different methods were applied to derive the fragility relations between the PVC water pipes having nominal diameters (approximately inner diameters) greater than or equal to 65 mm and earthquake intensity parameters such as peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity. The results were then examined with those of other countries. The discrepancy between our results and the empirical equation used by HAZUS, an earthquake loss estimation software developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency was not significant.     

Water–rock interaction during the process of steam stimulation exploitation of viscous crude oil in Liaohe Shuguang Oil Field, Liaoning, China

In the process of steam stimulation exploitation of viscous crude oil, the injected water, at high temperature and under high pressure, reacts intensively with the host rock. This kind of water–rock interaction in Liaohe Shuguang Oil Field was studied on the basis of analysis of water composition changes, laboratory experiments, mineral saturation indices analysis, and mass balance calculation. Compared with the injected water, the changes of the composition of discharged water are mainly the distinct decrease of pH, Na⁺, SiO₂ and Cl⁻, as well as the increase of K⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, SO ₄ ²⁻ and HCO ₃ ⁻ . Laboratory experiments under field conditions showed: the dissolution sequence of minerals quantitatively is quartz>potassium feldspar>albite, and the main change of clay minerals is the conversion of kaolinite to analcime. Mass balance calculation indicated during the process of steam stimulation, large quantities of analcime are precipitated with the dissolution of large amounts of quartz, kaolinite, potassium feldspar, and CO₂. These results correlated very well with the experimental results. The calculated results of Liaohe Shuguang Oil Field showed that during the steam stimulation for viscous crude oil, the amounts of minerals dissolved (precipitated) are huge. To control the clogging of pore spaces of oil reservoirs, increased study of water–rock interaction is needed.