Increasing critical sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earthquakes with identified stress accumulation pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.     

Are the South and North Liaohe Groups of North China Craton different exotic terranes? Nd isotope constraints

The Liaohe Group is an important Paleoproterozoic stratigraphic unit in the northeastern part of the North China Craton and is traditionally subdivided into the North and South Liaohe Groups. Associated with both the North and South Liaohe Groups are voluminous Paleoproterozoic granitoid rocks, named the Liaoji granitoids. Different tectonic models, including terrane amalgamation, continent–arc collision and rift closure, have been proposed to interpret the tectonic setting and evolution of the North and South Liaohe Groups and associated Liaoji granitoids. At the centre of the controversy between these models is whether or not the North and South Liaohe Groups developed on the same Archean basement. Nd isotopic geochemistry of the Liaoji granitoids provides important constraints on this controversial issue. The Liaoji granitoids associated with the North and South Liaohe Groups display similar ε_Nd values, restricted to a narrow range from 0 to 2, implying that these granitoid rocks were derived from the same or a similar magma source. Moreover, the Liaoji granitoids associated with the North and South Liaohe Groups have similar Nd model ages (T_DM), ranging from 2.4 to 2.6 Ga, suggesting that the protoliths of the Liaoji granitoids associated with both groups may have formed simultaneously, and that the basement rocks underneath the Liaoji granitoids and associated North and South Liaohe Groups belong to the same continental block rather than two different blocks. Combining lithological, structural and geochronological considerations, we interpret the North and South Liaohe Groups as having developed on a single late Archean basement that underwent Paleoproterozoic rifting associated with the intrusion of the Liaoji granitoids and the formation of the Liaohe Group, and closed upon itself in the Paleoproterozoic.     

High-resolution sedimentary record of lead in the coastal mud of the East China Sea in the past one hundred and fifty years

In the East China Sea （ECS）, there are some mud areas, including the south coastal mud area, the north coastal mud area, and the mud area to the southwest of Cheju Island. X-ray fluorescence （XRF） techniques and Thermal Ionization Mass Spectrometry （TIMS） were used to study the high-resolution sedimentary record of Pb concentrations and Pb stable isotopic compositions in the past one hundred and fifty years in the coastal mud of the ECS. Pb concentrations of a ^210Pb dating S5 core in the study area have increased rapidly since 1980, and reached the maximal value with 65.08 μg/g in 2000, corresponding to the fast economic development of China since the implementation of the ＂Reform and Open Policy＂ in 1978; ^206Pb/^207Pb ratios generally had stabilized at 1.195 from 1860 to 1966, and decreased gradually from 1966 to 2000, indicating that the anthropogenic source Pb contribution to the ECS has increased gradually since 1966, especially since 1980. Pb concentrations decreased distinctly from 2000 to 2003 and ^206Pb/^207Pb ratios increased from 2001 to 2003, corresponding closely to the ban of lead gasoline from 2000 in China. From 1950 to 2003, there occurred four distinct decrease events of ^206Pb/^207Pb, possibly responding to the Changjiang River （Yangtze River） catastrophic floods in 1998, 1991, 1981 and 1954; from 1860 to 1966, there were two decrease periods of ^206Pb/^207Pb, which may respond to the catastrophic floods of Changjiang River in 1931 and 1935, and 1870. As a result of the erosion and drowning by the catastrophic floods, the anthropogenic lead accumulated in soil and water environments over a long period of time was brought into the Changjiang River, then part of them was finally transported into the ECS, which leads to changes in Pb stable isotopic composition.     

Boron isotopic geochemistry of karst groundwater in Guiyang City, China

Boron has two stable isotopes （^10B and ^11B） with relative abundances of about 20% and 80%, respectively. Boron isotopic ratios in natural materials show a huge range of variations, from -70‰ to ＋60‰, when expressed with the classical δ^11B notation. Most of these isotopic variations occur at the surface of the Earth. Hence, boron isotopic composition can be used as a sensitive tracer in geochemical study, for instance, to identify the different sources of contamination and factors controlling the salinity of groundwater. During the last decade, boron isotopes have been used to discriminate between the influences of seawater intrusion and anthropogenic discharge. But few of those researches can precisely identify the different sources of contamination. We measured the boron concentrations and boron isotopic ratios of groundwater samples collected in Guiyang City, as well as the major ions. The results indicate that the major ion composition of the groundwater in the investigated area is mainly controlled by the interactions between water and the dominant rock i.e. carbonates. All the water compositions are characterized by high concentrations of Ca^2＋, Mg^2＋, HCO3^-, SO4^2-, and NO3^-, which are the dominant contaminants. Both dissolved boron concentrations and isotopic ratios show large variations among the ground waters, from 2 μg/L to 90 μg/L and from -6‰ to ＋26‰, respectively. The boron concentrations and isotopic ratios indicate that the river across the studied city has been seriously contaminated by urban discharge. Boron concentrations of fiver water samples varied from 20 μg/L to 140 μg/L, with an average δ^11B value of ＋2.0‰. Using boron isotopic compositions and different geochemical indices allowed us to clearly identify and distinguish the two major sources of contamination, agricultural activity and urban wastewater. Both of the two sources are characterized by high boron concentrations but their boron isotopic compositions significantly differ.     

The seismic hazard assessment of the Dead Sea rift, Jordan

The Dead Sea fault system and its branching faults represent one of the most tectonically active regions in the Middle East. The aim of this study is to highlight the degree of hazards related to the earthquake activities associated with the Dead Sea rift, in terms of speculating the possible future earthquakes. The present investigation mainly is based on available data and vertical crustal modeling of Jordan and the Dead Sea model for the Dead Sea basin with particular emphasis of the recent earthquake activities, which occurred on December 31st, 2003 (Mc = 3.7), February 11th, 2004 (strongest Mc = 4.9 R), and March 15th, 2004 (Mc = 4). The present research examines the location of the strong events and correlates them with the various tectonic elements in the area. The source mechanism of the main shock and the aftershock events is also examined. The analyses were based on the available short period seismogram data, which was recorded at the Natural Resources Authority of Jordan, Seismological Observatory. The seismic energy appears to have migrated from the south to the north during the period from December 31st up to March 12th, where the released seismic energy showed a migration character to the southern block of the eastern side of the Dead Sea, which led the seismic event to occur on March 15th.     

Detrital zircon reference for the North China block

U–Pb analyses of 250 single detrital zircons from Upper Proterozoic to Ordovician strata collected from the Zhuozi Shan in north-central China provide a detrital zircon reference for the North China block, a major crustal entity in the Asian tectonic collage. The results, which range in age from 1.72 to 2.97 Ga, shed new light on the age of the crystalline basement in North China, much of which is covered by younger sedimentary units. In addition, this detrital zircon reference can be used to help determine the provenance of clastic sedimentary units and for assessing validity of paleogeographic and regional tectonic models that include the complex history of Asian continental amalgamation, terrane accretion, and subsequent translation that is ongoing today.     

Synchronism of Holocene East Asian monsoon variations and North Atlantic drift-ice tracers

Eighteen radiocarbon-dated eolian and paleosol profiles within a 1500-km-long belt along the arid to semi-arid transition zone of north-central China record variations in the extent and strength of the East Asian summer monsoon during the Holocene. Dated paleosols and peat layers represent intervals when the zone was dominated by a mild, moist summer monsoon climate that favored pedogenesis and peat accumulation. Brief intervals of enhanced eolian activity that resulted in the deposition of loess and eolian sand were times when strengthened winter monsoon conditions produced a colder, drier climate. The monsoon variations correlate closely with variations in North Atlantic drift-ice tracers that represent episodic advection of drift ice and cold polar surface water southward and eastward into warmer subpolar water. The correspondence of these records over the full span of Holocene time implies a close relationship between North Atlantic climate and the monsoon climate of central China.     

Testing earthquake prediction methods: «The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8»

Analyzing the tables and probability maps posted by Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson in April 2002–September 2004 at http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/predictions_index.html and the catalog of earthquakes for the same period, the conclusion is drawn that the underlying method could be used for prediction of aftershocks, while it does not outscore random guessing when main shocks are considered.     

A laboratory experiment to monitor the contact state of a fault by transmission waves

We performed a series of laboratory experiments in which elastic waves were transmitted across a simulated fault. Two types of experiments were carried out: (1) Normal Stress Holding Test (NSHT): normal stress was kept constant for about 3 h without shear stress and transmission waves were observed. (2) Shear Stress Increasing Test (SSIT): shear stress was gradually increased until a stick-slip event occurred. Transmission waves were continuously observed throughout the process of stress accumulation. We focused on the change in transmission waves during the application of shear stress and especially during precursory slips.It was found in NSHT that the amplitude of transmission waves linearly increased with the logarithm of stationary contact time. The increase amounted to a few percent after about 3 h. Creep at asperity contacts is responsible for this phenomenon. From a theoretical consideration, it was concluded that the real contact area increased with the logarithm of stationary contact time.We observed in SSIT a significant increase in wave amplitude with shear stress application. This phenomenon cannot be attributed to the time effect observed in NSHT. Instead, it can be explained by the mechanism of “junction growth” proposed by Tabor. Junction growth yields an increase in real contact area. It is required for junction growth to occur that the material in contact is already plastic under a purely normal loading condition. A computer simulation confirmed that this requirement was satisfied in our experiments. We also found that the rate at which the amplitude increased was slightly reduced prior to a stick-slip event. The onset time of the reduction well coincides with the onset of precursory slip. The cause of the reduction is attributed to the reset of stationary contact time due to displacement. This interpretation is supported by the result of NSHT. Taking the time of stationary contact in SSIT into account, we may expect the change in wave amplitude to be, at most, only a few percent. The observed slight reduction in increasing rate is, in this sense, reasonable. The static stiffness of the fault also decreases with precursory slip. It was also found that low frequency waves are a better indicator of precursory slip than high frequency waves. This might suggest that low frequency waves with longer wavelength are a better indicator of average behavior of faults. The problem, however, merits a further investigation. The shifts in phase were also found to be a good indicator of the change in contact state of the fault. The changes in both amplitude and phase of transmission waves are unifyingly understood through the theory of transmission coefficient presented by Pyrak-Nolte et al. Rough surfaces have a tendency to give larger stick-slips than smooth surfaces. The amount of precursory slip is larger for rough surfaces than for smooth surfaces. Although it was confirmed by a computer simulation that rough surfaces have larger contact diameters than smooth surfaces, the rigorous relationship between the surface roughness (contact diameter) and the amount of precursory slips was not established.