太阳辐射管理地球工程对海洋酸化影响的模拟研究

研究地球工程对海洋酸化的影响对于评估地球工程对全球气候和环境的影响有重要意义。文中使用中等复杂程度的地球系统模式,模拟了典型CO₂高排放情景RCP8.5下,实施太阳辐射管理地球工程对海洋表面的pH和文石（碳酸钙的一种亚稳形态）饱和度的影响,并定量分析了各环境因子对海洋酸化影响的机理。模拟结果表明,在RCP8.5情景下,到2100年,相对于工业革命前水平,全球海洋表面平均pH下降了0.43,文石饱和度下降了1.77。相对于RCP8.5情景,2100年地球工程情景下全球海洋表面平均pH增加了0.003,而文石饱和度降低了0.16。地球工程通过改变溶解无机碳、碱度、温度等环境因子影响海洋酸化。相对于RCP8.5情景,实施地球工程引起的溶解无机碳浓度的增加使pH和文石饱和度均减小,碱度的增加使pH和文石饱和度均增大,温度的降低使pH增大而使文石饱和度减小。总体而言,太阳辐射管理地球工程可以降低全球温度,但无法减缓海洋酸化。     

卫星遥感与地球系统的时空耦合关系研究

本文从卫星的小型化、系列化以及信息共享的多样化等方面阐述了卫星遥感的发展趋势及特点,同时,探讨了地球巨系统的内涵及特点,并以干旱区为例,建立了时空耦合的概念模型,最后分析了卫星遥感技术在数字地球研究中的作用及意义.     

数字农业——数字地球的应用之一

本文描述了数字农业的概念和内容, 目前的状态和趋势。信息技术、空间技术和微电子技术使传统农业产生了革命性的变化。数字农业是以大田耕作为基础, 以先进的高技术为支撑的集约化和信息化的农业技术系统。它是指从耕作、播种、灌溉、施肥、中耕、田间管理、植物保护、产量预测到收获、保存、管理等过程实现数字化、网络化和智能化, 应用遥感、遥测、遥控、全球定位系统和计算机等先进技术, 以及智能化的农业设备, 实现农业生产和管理的数字化。使每一平方米的土地得到最优化的使用。形成一个包括对农作物、土地、土壤从宏观到微观的监测、预测农作物生长、发育状况以及环境要素的现状和动态分析、诊断预测、耕作措施、管理方案的决策支持在内的信息农业技术系统。本文首先描述遥感和遥测技术在农业监测和预报中的作用, 介绍了GPS、GIS和自动化农机的一体化技术以及数字农业技术系统的构成。     

A spatiotemporal calculus for reasoning about land-use trajectories

Earth observation images are a powerful source of data about changes in our planet. Given the magnitude of global environmental changes taking place, it is important that Earth Science researchers have access to spatiotemporal reasoning tools. One area of particular interest is land-use change. Using data obtained from images, researchers would like to express abstractions such as ‘land abandonment’, ‘forest regrowth’, and ‘agricultural intensification’. These abstractions are specific types of land-use trajectories, defined as multi-year paths from one land cover into another. Given this need, this paper introduces a spatiotemporal calculus for reasoning about land-use trajectories. Using Allen’s interval logic as a basis, we introduce new predicates that express cases of recurrence, conversion and evolution in land-use change. The proposed predicates are sufficient and necessary to express different kinds of land-use trajectories. Users can build expressions that describe how humans modify Earth’s terrestrial surface. In this way, scientists can better understand the environmental and economic effects of land-use change.     

The Characteristics and Related Problems of the Orbits Around the Earth-Moon Libration Points

Due to the specific dynamics, the probes located at the halo orbits or Lissajous orbits around the Earth-Moon collinear libration point L₁ or L₂ are always studied in the synodic system to understand their trajectories. In fact, they are also orbiting the Earth in a distant Keplerian ellipse. Because of their intrinsic orbital instability, in the orbit prediction the initial errors propagate more prominently than those of the normal orbiting satellites, this requires special attention in the orbit design, maneuver, and control. Despite of all this, they are similar to the normal orbiting satellites in orbit determination and hardly require other special attentions. In this paper, the quantitative results of error propagation under the unstable dynamics, together with the theoretical analysis are presented. The results of precise orbit determination and short-arc orbit predictions are also shown, and compared with the results from the Beijing Aerospace Control Center.     

The influence of the electromagnetic core-mantle coupling torques on earth's rotation

The electromagnetic core-mantle coupling is one of the most likely hypotheses to explain the connections between both, the decade fluctuations of the Earth rotation and such of the magnetic field of the Earth. Within this paper, the axial and equatorial electromagnetic torques are computed at time intervals of two years from 1903.5 to 1975.5. They are compared with mechanical torques necessary for the excitation of the decade variations of the rotation of the Earth. The comparison is made with regard to the magnitude of the torques, to their time behaviour and to the periods within the time variations of both types of the torques. The computed electromagnetic torques are comparable with that necessary to excite the variations of the rotation of the Earth. But they are two or three orders less than that necessary to excite the decade variations of the polar motion. Some comparable periods were found within the spectra of the electromagnetic and the mechanical torques. This speaks in favour of the core-mantle coupling. But there are differences between both spectra too hinting at other processes which we cannot describe by a simple model of the core-mantle coupling.     

预测华北地区年度地震趋势的支持向量机分类方法

以太阳黑子数、地球自转速率变化数据和全球7级以上地震应变释放量作为预测因子,使用支持向量机分类方法建模预测中国华北地区年度地震强度,预测准确率为0.93,表明该方法具有较好的预测效果.     

苏门答腊Ms8.7级大震前的地脉动预警信息

介绍了辽宁数字台网运行的脉动异常跟踪系统(RTTS),叙述了这个系统在2004年12月26日08时58分55.2秒印尼苏门答腊西北近海(北纬3.9,东经95.9)8.7级地震前,营口、锦州台地脉动波形的幅度和周期明显异常的情况。并展现了利用RTTS系统进行地脉动研究的前景。     

利用奇异谱分析提高极移中长期预报精度

由于空间大地观测数据传输耗时及处理过程复杂, 导致极移测量值的获取存在时延, 无法满足对高精度的极移预报值有重大需求的应用领域. 针对极移复杂的时变特性, 提出一种基于奇异谱分析(singular spectrum analysis, SSA)的预报方法. 首先用SSA分离提取极移时序中的高频组分与低频组分; 其次建立最小二乘(least square, LS)外推与自回归(AutoreGressive, AR)模型对极移高频和低频组分进行组合预报. 结果表明, SSA方法能够准确地分离和提取极移低频和高频组分, 对低频和高频组分组合预报可以显著改善极移的中长期(30--365d)预报精度, 与国际地球自转和参考系服务局(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS)提供的A公报中的极移预报值相比, SSA方法对极移PMX分量(本初子午线方向)和PMY分量(西90$^\circ$子午线方向)的中长期预报精度改进最高分别可达45.97%和62.44%. 研究结果验证了SSA方法对极移中长期预报改进的有效性.