地球系统科学与数字地球

数字地球将为地球系统科学研究带来研究方法,研究手段和信息获取渠道的革命,因对地观测和数据资源共享技术的发展将使传统的野外地学作业逐步走向现代化,从而使地球系统科学的建立真正成为可能。     

Detecting patterns of climate change in long-term forecasts of marine environmental parameters

ABSTRACT

Forecasting environmental parameters in the distant future requires complex modelling and large computational resources. Due to the sensitivity and complexity of forecast models, long-term parameter forecasts (e.g. up to 2100) are uncommon and only produced by a few organisations, in heterogeneous formats and based on different assumptions of greenhouse gases emissions. However, data mining techniques can be used to coerce the data to a uniform time and spatial representation, which facilitates their use in many applications. In this paper, streams of big data coming from AquaMaps and NASA collections of 126 long-term forecasts of nine types of environmental parameters are processed through a cloud computing platform in order to (i) standardise and harmonise the data representations, (ii) produce intermediate scenarios and new informative parameters, and (iii) align all sets on a common time and spatial resolution. Time series cross-correlation applied to these aligned datasets reveals patterns of climate change and similarities between parameter trends in 10 marine areas. Our results highlight that (i) the Mediterranean Sea may have a standalone ‘response’ to climate change with respect to other areas, (ii) the Poles are most representative of global forecasted change, and (iii) the trends are generally alarming for most oceans.     

Eliminating Virtual Impactors with the Very Large Telescope: An ESO Program with the FORS2 Camera

We have used the ESO Very Large Telescope (VLT) to perform as trometric observations of Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) having remote collision possibilities with the Earth. The observations were made for those objects which became too faint to be observed elsewhere. Using the 4 hours allocated in the semester April–September 2003, 5 faint NEAs were observed. As a result, no NEA that could impact the Earth was lost.     

Earth–Moon Separation Problem In The Motion Of Near Earth Asteroids

The analysis of application of two dynamical models (``Earth–Moon' and``barycentre' model) in the motion of Near Earth Asteroids was performed. Mainaim was the quantitative estimation of the influence of lunar perturbations on the motionof NEA. Additionally, basic tests of application of numerical methods weremade (RMVS3 and B–S methods). The orbits of 1083 Apollo–Aten–Amor and 7selected AAA objects were adopted as test particles in numerical integrationof the motion. The comparison between results obtained by both dynamicalmodels is discussed in detail. In specific cases, the application of the``Earth–Moon' dynamical model is very important and cannot be neglected incomputations of orbits.     

A UT1-Like Quantity from Analysis of GPS Orbit Planes

This paper discusses a UT1-like quantity, UTGPS, determined daily from Earth-referenced GPS satellite orbits from the International GPS Service (IGS). For each satellite considered, the observed relation between the satellite's IGS orbit and a model of its orbit plane in inertial space is used to estimate UT1. This modeled orbit plane is initialized using the satellite's IGS orbit and the actual UT1 at an initial time. It is then propagated using standard models of gravitational forces and an empirical model representing the orbit-normal radiation pressure observed during several years of in-flight experience with the satellite. To estimate UT1, an a-priori transformation from terrestrial to true-of-date celestial coordinates is applied to the satellite's IGS orbit. The geocentric angular deviations of points of the resulting transformed orbit from the modeled orbit plane are analyzed, giving the angle between the ascending nodes of the satellite's transformed and modeled orbit planes. To this observed angle between nodes, converted to a UT1 difference, is added the a-priori UT1 value used in the transformation. From the result is subtracted a model of the angle, again converted to a UT1 difference, between the ascending nodes of the actual and modeled orbit planes. The final result is the estimate of UT1 from this satellite, and the median of the UT1 estimates from all satellites considered is UTGPS. The root-mean-square difference between UTGPS-UT1 at the beginning and at the end of an interval of one to four weeks is approximately 30 s times the square root of the interval's duration in weeks.This revised version was published online in October 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

积极推动“数字海南”建设

海南省具有得天独厚的发展优势,“数字地球”是实现整体可持续发展的重要保障,将有力推进全省信息化的进程,促进经济发展。     

新元古代晚期盖帽碳酸盐岩的成因与“雪球地球”的终结机制

新元古代晚期约635 Ma的地球发育了到达赤道附近的冰川作用，地质记录上表现为代表寒冷气候的冰期沉积杂砾岩，直接被代表温暖环境的碳酸盐岩层（常称盖帽碳酸盐岩）覆盖。由于盖帽碳酸盐岩奇特的岩石学和地球化学特征，引起了对其成因认识的巨大争论，提出了“雪球地球”和“甲烷渗漏”等假说。“雪球地球”假设可以解释一些令人困惑的地学现象，如低纬度和低海拔冰川沉积、盖帽碳酸盐岩、碳酸盐δ13C负漂移和条带状铁矿层等，但许多科学家对此提出了质疑。最近对盖帽碳酸盐岩的δ13C分析结果（最低达-41‰）、盖帽碳酸盐岩发育的类似现代冷泉碳酸盐岩沉积组构等似乎支持“甲烷渗漏”假说。     

白垩纪地球表层系统重大地质事件与温室气候变化研究

国家重点基础研究发展计划（973）项目“白垩纪地球表层系统重大地质事件与温室气候变化”，将以白垩纪与碳循环相关的重大地质事件和温室气候变化的关系为主线，以大洋缺氧事件—富氧作用转变过程和机制研究为突破口，进行海陆相整合研究，重点追溯东特提斯洋和我国大陆地球表层系统重大地质事件的记录，探讨这些事件与碳循环、快速气候变化的正/负反馈机制。项目将充分利用中国大陆发育完好的白垩纪海相、陆相地层及古生物记录，通过松辽盆地白垩系科学钻探全岩芯取样和多学科综合研究的途径，着眼于厘定反映地质事件和气候变化的层位及标志和时间格架，解决高分辨率海、陆相沉积事件的精确对比，分析地层记录中气候标志和古生物类群的地理分布，集中研究陆地和海洋环境对同一事件的响应机制，重溯白垩纪地球表层系统重大地质事件过程及成因，探究陆相烃源岩大规模形成、陆地生物群更替与温室气候变化和碳循环之间的正/负反馈关系和机制等科学问题，为预测全球长时间尺度上的气候变化趋势提供科学依据。     

Modeling the length of day and extrapolating the rotation of the Earth

The stochastic behavior of the length of day (LOD) process is analyzed and is modeled within statistical accuracy on a time-scale ranging from weeks to millennia by a three-component model comprising a global Brownian motion process, decadal fluctuations, and a 50-day Madden–Julian oscillation. While the model is intended to be phenomenological, some possible physical models underlying the three components are speculated upon. The model is applied to estimate long-range extrapolation errors. For example, it predicts a standard error of 1 h in the clock-time correction ΔT for extrapolation by 1,500 years from 500 to 2000 BC.